keo

Is the Commodities Bull Market Over?

strong dollar ? where ?

Everyone Wants the Commodity Bubble To Be Pricked

Russia would be *nowhere* without the run up in commodities in the last years (not just oil), it is rising from its ashes and flexing... Let commodities crash, and Russia would be broke. Latin America is absolutely booming thanks to commodities. Australia is making tonnes. High prices gives these countries power, look at Russia, Venezuala posturing like they do. Argentina, Malaysia, Venezuela are no longer interested in IMF membership. If you have expensive commodities, people are nice to you and will take you to dinner. These countries have nothing to gain from lower commodity prices. Now, if they would stop printing their fiat papers (and in some cases let the dollar peg go), they would have less inflation too.

Everyone Wants the Commodity Bubble To Be Pricked

Not everyone wants it pricked, just those countries that have to buy them from the producers ;)

Inflation Fears Are Inflated

The cost of labor flat ? Maybe in the US, but not in the countries where all the stuff the US buy is produced ! Wages are definitely going up in China.

How Commodity Prices Are Hurting Global Economies

More monsanto style agritech ? Yes maybe. Solar ? Perhaps. New Oilfields ? Who knows. Better farm yields ? Well, why not ?

I see the problems you mention. We are getting out of a long bear market in commodities. Low prices formed no incentive to search for new resources. Companies did not invest in searching for oil for example. No new mines were opened. There was no money to be made. The situation is now changing.

I am not short in commodities. In fact, I have quite a lot invested in commodities (mainly using the RICI products). I believe in cycles. The commodity cycle is not over yet, but it will not last for ever either.

How Commodity Prices Are Hurting Global Economies

Not all economies are hurt, obviously commodity-producing countries are doing great. Canada, australia, brazil, argentinia, a number of arab countries are making tons of money. Commodities were way too cheap in the 90ies, so supply went down. Now, with higher prices, production will grow and prices will go down again (unless you believe in peak everything). Normal cycle.

Get Out of Commodities - Barron's

"Factors that could burst the bubble: ....stronger US Dollar"... hahahaha that's a good one ;)

Don't Get Caught in the Dot Commodity Bubble

I agree with theRealBull. There is a growing demand, supply cannot keep up. For some commodities, there is even talk of 'peak' (peak oil, peak gold). Where are the new major oil discoveries ? Even if there is one, it take years before the first drops will reach the markets. Similarly, it takes years before new mines finally start producing. Of course, nothing goes straight up; there will always be corrections in bull markets (even 50%, look at the dow or other indices).