keo

Is the Commodities Bull Market Over?

strong dollar ? where ?

The Brightest Stars in the Commodities Boom, Part I

Most commodities can be substituted. If platinum and palladium become expensive as rhodium, I really expect some substitution. For instance, gold can act as a catalyst as well:

17/05/2007 - Gold glows on back of clean-air movement
www.telegraph.co.uk/mo...

January 02, 2008 -- Will Gold Replace Platinum in Catalytic Converters?
seekingalpha.com/artic...

1 APRIL 2008 - HITACHI MAXELL DEVELOPS NEW GOLD-PLATINUM CATALYST ENABLING HIGHER PERFORMANCE FUEL CELLS
www.greencarcongress.c...

That would definitely destroy some demand for platinum.

If a particular commodity gets too expensive, it gets substituted. If oil is too expensive, we use coal or natural gas. If platinum is too expensive we use palladium. Or maybe gold (as science progresses). I am invested in broad commodity indices, and have a physical stash Au,Ag,Pt,Pd. I don't put everything in gold, and don't put everything in Pd either.

Inflation Fears Are Inflated

The cost of labor flat ? Maybe in the US, but not in the countries where all the stuff the US buy is produced ! Wages are definitely going up in China.

Gold and Silver Are Still Bargains

"That’s right, silver has to increase by a factor of 8 times in order to reach $135.00, which is its 1980 price, when adjusted for inflation"...

I am bullish on gold & silver, but we have to be fair and mention that the Hunt brothers were needed to reach that top in 1980... I am not sure this will happen again soon.

How Commodity Prices Are Hurting Global Economies

More monsanto style agritech ? Yes maybe. Solar ? Perhaps. New Oilfields ? Who knows. Better farm yields ? Well, why not ?

I see the problems you mention. We are getting out of a long bear market in commodities. Low prices formed no incentive to search for new resources. Companies did not invest in searching for oil for example. No new mines were opened. There was no money to be made. The situation is now changing.

I am not short in commodities. In fact, I have quite a lot invested in commodities (mainly using the RICI products). I believe in cycles. The commodity cycle is not over yet, but it will not last for ever either.

How Commodity Prices Are Hurting Global Economies

Not all economies are hurt, obviously commodity-producing countries are doing great. Canada, australia, brazil, argentinia, a number of arab countries are making tons of money. Commodities were way too cheap in the 90ies, so supply went down. Now, with higher prices, production will grow and prices will go down again (unless you believe in peak everything). Normal cycle.

Get Out of Commodities - Barron's

"Factors that could burst the bubble: ....stronger US Dollar"... hahahaha that's a good one ;)

Jim Rogers: Cotton Is a Good Way to Buy Oil

Hi. Here's another one: plastic can be produced from sugar cane. "Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, and its Brazilian partner, Crystalsev, plan to build an $800 million plant in Brazil to produce plastics from sugar cane instead of petroleum, Valor Economico reported.". (source: www.bloomberg.com/apps...)