irondoor91

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    • Sun Aug 24th 23:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      15 Value Hedge Funds - Portfolio Update
      Do some managers consistently buy shares for more than they are worth? If so, do they make money in the long term?
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    • Sun Aug 24th 23:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Insana Capital Partners' 'Legends' Hedge Fund To Close
      Insana has been right on the market lately, especially after the recent crisis was exposed. However, we don't know how his fund performed relative to his on-air wisdom. That's the rub. If you were an investor in his "fund of funds", what are you thinking when he's on CNBC spouting off about the dire state of the credit market while at the same time the fund's managers are long subprime.
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    • Sun Aug 24th 23:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      4 Tidbits from Third Avenue Value Fund's Q3 Letter
      You fellows post as if somebody gives a ---- about your positions. When disclosing, please give size, date of purchase, cost basis. Then, we can determine your positions. Of course, a photo of your most recent brokerage statement would suffice.
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    • Mon Aug 18th 11:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      WexTrust's (Alleged) Fraud - What Are the Lessons For Investors?
      One more comment on the above case. Dave Mobley was convicted of securities fraud, wire fraud, etc. He is serving a 17 year sentence in the federal system.

      Several investors had put their entire life savings in the funds. Small recoveries have been slow. Any investors who received money from the Ponzi scheme have been labled as "profiteers" and have had to return the money received. Imagine that is not easily done, since several of them used the proceeds of their "winnings" to build homes, take vacations, pay bills, etc. Some of them have died and the receiver has sued their estates.
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    • Mon Aug 18th 11:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      WexTrust's (Alleged) Fraud - What Are the Lessons For Investors?
      You may be familiar with the similar case of the Maricopa Investment Fund(s) located in Naples, Florida in the late 1990's. The perpetrator of the Maricopa scheme, one David Mobley, said that he had a computerized program to trade the stock index futures market. He had been in "business" since the mid-1990's and had taken in more than $100 million from investors. His reported performance, which he sent to investors monthly, did not ever show a losing month. So that investors would be somewhat reluctant to withdraw money, Mobley told them that they did not directly own the investments, but owned shares of an offshore company that did not pay US taxes. As long as they held their investment, they owed no tax. However, if they did need a withdrawal in an emergency, money could be sent.

      When questioned about an audited financial statement, Mobley declared that since his "system" was a secret, he would not allow any accounting firm to audit it, nor would he show brokerage statements. He claimed that if anyone saw his trading pattern, they could "reverse engineer" his system and steal his secret methods.

      He had lavish offices in Naples where he had prominently displayed photos of himself with former Presidents, local politicians, ministers, etc. He was a large contributor to charities. Of course, he was also a golf course real estate developer too. Most of the local wealthy had invested with him.

      His son and son-in-law (in their 20's) operated a large trading room with dozens of computer screens showing various graphs and positions. Visitors and prospective investors were invited to view the action. When asked what was being traded, the answer was that "Dad is trading from his home so that he won't be distracted". No actual trading was taking place at the office.

      His brother, son, son-in-law, daughter, wife and ex-wife were all involved in the operation. His wife was CFO. When later asked where they got the information to compile monthly investor reports, they replied that Dave got the data from an administrator in the Cayman Islands and they got it from Dave. The back office people in Naples never actually saw the trades and account data. These people were all dependent on Mobley for their livelyhood.

      Due diligence would have shown that Dave Mobley had been charged with fraud in Kentucky years before. Rather than having a successful track record, he had left Kentucky after bankruptcy. His previous work experience had been on an automobile assembly line.

      Investors have recovered approximately 50% of their capital. The lesson learned is that due diligence is required, along with audited financial statements and the understanding that no matter how much you dig or audit, a really good psychopathic criminal is probably going to screw you anyway. They see other people as just pawns to be used to fill their empty lives, and somehow they deserve it.

      Some common themes in these frauds:

      . Affinity goups (wealthy, connected, charitably inclined, greedy).
      . Some sort of "secret" or proprietary program.
      . No audit by reputable accounting or law firms.
      . Simple statements showing only the "value" of your investment.
      . Non-professional family members involved in the operation.
      . Some type of tax dodge or angle.
      . Unusual reluctance to discuss the specific details of their investment strategy or results.
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    • Sun Aug 17th 20:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Start Looking for a Bottom?
      Post links to your brokerage statements, please. Does anyone ever see posts on these pages from the likes of Buffett, Soros, Jones, Paulson (not the Treas Sec), or other fund managers who have made Billions $? No, of course not. They are full of posters who are full of useless opinion they can't act upon. They have no cash, no skin in any game and will be up in the morning commuting in to punch the clock for a paycheck.
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    • Sun Aug 17th 09:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Hedge Fund Hustle
      Re: Instability

      The longer a market is stable, the greater the risk (opportunity?) for that market to become destabilzed. Many instituional investors, being human and looking to avoid employment risk, seek out stable markets and stable markets and stable returns because they know it is an easy sell to their constituents and clients. But, in order to distinguish themselves in the marketplace they use ever-greater degress of leverage. Great strategy when there is virtually unlimited liquidity available from the IB's and no real limits on ratios. Additionally, the creation of more exotic levered illiquid instruments introduces additional profit opportunity, which can only be enhanced with more leverage.

      Eventually, the market becomes just a little bit unstable because it is actually resting its stability on the back of the least capable managers. Then, it becomes a bit more unstable as those few of the other managers who are holding the same instruments obtain the shaky information coming from the bottom-dwellers. Ultimately, there is nothing to stabilize the market when everyone is heading for the same illiquid exit.

      That's where we are today, and it would be much worse if the Fed had not recognized the enormous risk to the entire world financial system inherent in the leverage. Their problem is that they cannot gather all the players into the same room to identify the sacrificial lambs. All those mortgages have been sliced and diced into too much "diversification&...
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    • Wed Aug 13th 10:43 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday: Turning Point in Our Financial Crisis?
      Nice article, but it doesn't go far enough to address what will happen to all the regional and smaller local banks that have half their assets in either A&D real estate loans to small local/regional undercapitalized developers and builders. Usually, the only collateral backing those loans is the land/houses themselves and/or the balance sheets of the developers/builders. Care to guess the assets of those borrowers? If you said more real estate, personal residences, trucks, cars, boats, airplanes, motorcycles, vacation homes, etc. I know many of these guys and they are on very thin ice right now.

      When the banks tighten credit, the water goes out of the bathtub and the banks slowly cut their own throats. Maybe they're hoping to be the survivor and gain future market share.

      By the way, where are the rest of the bank assets invested? Try more government securities, most of which are backed by real estate loans.
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    • Wed Aug 13th 10:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Defining a Set of Core Asset Classes
      This all sounds very good. Modern portfolio theory, diversification, splitting of the hairs, etc. There's just one problem as I see it. It's backward looking over the past 70 years and does not take into account what will happen to any portfolio or asset class in a deflationary environment. All of these asset classes mentioned depend on one thing--and ever increasing amount of bank lending and expanding credit.

      You show no allocation to cash, which is the best performing asset class over the past 8 years. Why not? All of the asset classes mentioned may have increased slightly or not at all in dollar terms, but in terms of real money (gold) they are losers by a large margin. That's why a million bucks just doesn't buy you much any more.

      These asset classes may protect an investor during inflation. But when the great unwinding finally hits, there is no place to hide no matter what your "mix". It then has just been another case of intellectual analysis.
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    • Tue Aug 12th 10:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Value Dead?
      If all stocks had great "visibility"... there would be no problem in stock selection. Just buy the best forward GP/E companies and wait for the earnings growth to come through. Great value managers do something evern better, they figure out the businesses and determine their estimate of future earnings (low visibility, superior guessing). If it is better than what the market is pricing, they have a winner.

      The problems with this come to the fore when they are wrong and the market was right. The stubborn ones hang on to the their FAN and FRE and BS, assuming they'll be right some day.

      It seems to me that it is healthy to recognize early enough when you are wrong and get out. Focus on the losers and the winners will take care of themselves.
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    • Mon Aug 11th 15:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Stock Markets: Let the Gains Begin
      You can take a trading "stance" without actually executing a trade unless there is a trade to take. Don't trade out of boredom, but be prepared with a plan.

      Sometimes you actually have to watch what the market is doing to determine what it is saying. Why try and be a hero? A "long term approach" can also mean "get out and wait for lower prices".
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    • Mon Aug 11th 15:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      While Gartman is Goldless, I Still Itch for Commodities
      Gold, Silver, Commodities are all hedges against shortages, but primarily inflation-causing increases in the money supply due to overly-generous lending by the banks.

      Banks no longer have lending capacity. They are reducing to preserve capital. Their collateral (real estate) is sinking like a rock. Individuals and companies are pulling in their horns and attempting to clean up their own balance sheets. They have no capability to borrow more, since borrowing now actually requires the demonstrated ability to pay back what you owe.

      In other words, its deflation that is coming, not inflation. This is recognized in the declining prices for oil, gold, silver, other commodities, etc.

      The best investment over the past 8 years has been cash. It will continue to beat everything else until we are at the end of the banking crisis, probably around 2014. Try paying for gas or groceries with a gold coin.
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    • Sat Aug 9th 10:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are Hedge Fund Programs Driving the Market?
      If there is "mindless selling" by the funds, cannot there also be "mindless buying" by the public? Cramer is always promising to find a bull market "somewhere". Buy! Buy! Buy!. Never, ever, ever Sell.
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    • Wed Aug 6th 11:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      In-Depth Obviousness Analysis at Fortress
      Can you identify a few companies that did not profit from the "credit" bubble since 1982?

      And why do they call it a "credit" bubble, when it's a "debt" bubble? After all, if you have excessive "credit", you're usually in pretty good shape. If you have too much debt, you're in deep you-know-what.

      There is much talk and consternation about how financial companies need to "repair their balance sheets". They attempt to do this by raising capital thru selling stock, cutting dividends, selling off parts of their businesses, etc. All well and good.

      But, where does the average American go to repair his balance sheet? He can't issue stock, he has no dividend to cut, no part of his business that he can sell, no workforce to reduce. He is at the mercy of his employer, who is at the mercy of the marketplace.

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    • Wed Aug 6th 10:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Corporate Fraud + Government Intervention = Bailout Nation
      How many times have you heard that one of our major problems is our "low savings rate"? For years now it has been close to or less than zero.

      Out come the "stimulus checks" and lo and behold we find that about 30% of the money wasn't spent, but was actually saved in a bank account or used to reduce some credit card debt.

      The next outcry was bemoaning the fact that people were saving and actually coming to their senses!

      The whole world knows that if Americans ever returned to the '60's and saved/invested 5-10% of their incomes the global economy would be down the tubes. The world depends on Americans borrowing and spending themselves and their country into bankruptcy. And they will gladly sell us the junk and loan us the money to do it with.

      My question is, where will the world find the next goose to pluck?
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