irondoor91

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    • Thu May 29th 12:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The 'Commodity Speculators': What's Everyone Worrying About?
      According to the long/short hedge fund "expert" who testified before congress, "commodity index speculators", primarily other hedge funds and institutional investors such as the pension funds you cite, are driving up the prices of all commodities.

      In his testimony he made the point that these folks only purchase "long-only" index positions and that they "never sell". Now, according to Webster, the definition of a "speculator" is someone who takes unusual business risk and seeks to maximize their profits. That seems to me to be someone much like a hedge fund, perhaps even a "long/short" hedge fund.

      On the other hand, Webster defines an "investor" as someone who commits capital in order to gain a financial return. That return may be in the form of dividends, interest, capital appreciation or merely the safety of the original investment.

      It appears to me that since our "expert" acknowledged that the institutional investors with whom he was familiar "never sold", they have satisfied the definition of "investors" and are not speculators as he would have congress believe.

      I suspect that as you suggest, they are merely attempting to hedge the other 98% of their portfolios that they see going down the tubes due to the anemic performance of equities and fixed income investments, thanks to the bankrupt policies of our governmental leadership whose answer to our economic problems is to borrow a few hundred billion more from the Chinese so that they can buy votes with the ridiculous $600 "stimulus" checks. Absolutely insanity all around.

      Go speculators.
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    • Tue May 20th 00:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      BRIC Is for Real
      There is one undeniable fact of life regarding energy/oil as it moves around this planet on tankers, and that fact is that the free and unhindred transhipment of that oil is guaranteed by the US Navy. Our carrier battle groups and submarines guard and protect the strategic choke points around the world. You can look it up at any time and see where each CBG is located, and where the carriers are headed next. This is the case now, and will be the case no matter who is the next President. Just remember, the US taxpayer guarantees virtually every country in the world free access to the oil market, both to sell and to buy. And it will be this way for at least 2 generations, which is the amount of time that it would take for another country to develop the capacity to challenge us there.

      Nobody else can do it, no matter the whining about "American Hegemony". How would you like to see the Russians or the Chinese in charge of the high seas?

      Imagine the price of insurance premiums on tanker coverage. As soon as President Obama gets his first security briefing, I suspect that his tune will be a-changin and he will soon enough have the gray hair of his Uncle Tom. But, in the interest of fairness, maybe he will give the Iranians and the N Koreans a carrier or two just to make friends and appease them for our past wrong-doings. Might as well go all out for equality, you know.
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    • Sun Apr 27th 12:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      There Is Plenty to Fear in This Market
      "I've invested in the troughs of the 70s, the 80s, the 90s, early 2000s, and now the present trough (but look at the long term S&P500 chart!...between the troughs is a mountain of gains (which is why it is sometimes called a "mountain chart" -- and each of those troughs are only blips!)."

      The complacency in this market for "buying on the dips" (or holding through the "troughs" as the writer puts it) is both normal and natural for everyone in it, since their entire investment history has been in a generally rising market, especially post-1982.

      Have a look at charts going back to the late 1800's, which will also encompass the late-'20's and early '30's. There is a "mountain chart" with the proper two sides. The market today is down over 50% since in terms of early 2000 in terms of what it will actually buy in "things"; ie, gold, silver, oil, wheat, copper, cement, gasoline, etc. Forget the "nominal" market. Focus on real money. If you think the Fed can solve the problem of liquidity, credibility and trust you can forget about it. The mood of the country toward risk-taking has changed and no amount of bailouts, injections or rate cuts is going to change it.

      To the extent that nobody thinks that stocks can fall 75% from here is the extent to which they can when the deflation that is coming finally gets here around 2012. Cash will be King.
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    • Wed Apr 23rd 10:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will U.S. Markets Crash Now - Or Later?
      What has been the best performing, most liquid, safest investment over the past 8 years? A money market fund or a CD.

      Think about it; no fees, no commissions, no need to watch the financial news, read these blogs or subscribe to the WSJ. You just put it in there and go get it when you need it. US Govt prinicple guarantee also. If you haven't been able to beat the market during the expansion from Oct 2002 thru 2007, what makes anyone think they will do so in the upcoming recesssion?

      All have their "theories" and "strategies"... but 99% cannot implement them due to fear. It's not that the game is rigged, its just that there is too much information available, especially for those who invest based on fundamentals.
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    • Thu Apr 10th 01:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Bad Is the Bear? A Technical Look at Current Dow Trading
      Oil will probably remain high priced in terms of dollars, but when the big unwind finally gets here and deflationary forces take hold, demand for all things oil-based will fall along with the price of everything else on this planet, and that includes the last and final inflatable, the commodities bubble. No more stock bubbles, no more real estate bubbles, no more derivatives bubbles. Why? No more liquidity available and thus no more leverage.
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    • Fri Mar 28th 14:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ben Stein and Bear Stearns: Getting It Wrong
      Go ahead. Would somebody please tell me how there have been these billions of people (none alike) and all this "stuff" and all the billions of stars, planets, galaxies, etc, etc, created from the "big bang" explosion of the smallest particle of a piece of an atom.

      Where did that piece of the atom come from? What set off the changes in the atmosphere that caused the "bang"? I guess somebody will just reply that it has been there since the beginning of time. Well, what was going on before the beginning?

      Just asking, and I am open to any rational theory.
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    • Sat Mar 22nd 11:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Liquidity Trap Cometh
      Gross Bill; All my life I've heard about the "top 1%" controlling the majority of the wealth. Do you really know who these people are, how they got there and the risk they took to do it? My wife recently came across the August 8, 1983 edition of Fortune Magazine here in my junk pile. The headline was "The bull market's biggest winners". (keep in mind that the great bull market of the 1982-2000 period had just got started) Let me give you an example that was included in the main story on page 36:

      "It also shows that entrepreneurs can create enormous wealth quickly. Indeed, K. Philip Hwang, 46, who gained $247 million, wasn't even in the stock market until March, when he took his company, TeleVideo Systems, Inc., public. At the offering price of $18 per share, his stock was worth $508 million. An emigrant from South Korea, Hwang was sweeping casino floors in Lake Tahoe 15 years ago to work his way through Utah State University. When he incorporated TeleVideo in 1976, venture capitalists had no interest in helping at the company's birth. "I don't blame them", says Hwang. "I was just an engineer with an idea and no management experience." He mortgaged his house, his car, and his furniture to raise capital. In 1983, TeleVideo was the leading supplier of video display terminals outside IBM. Says Hwang with feeling "It's a miracle."

      Check TeleVideo's stock quote today and you'll find that it is zero. It's 52 week high was 1 cent per share. It has 19 employees. What happened to it and to Mr. Hwang? I don't know, but I'm sure that you can research it if you're really interested in knowing more about the 1%. It's called "creative destruction" and has likely spawned many more multi-millionaires (thousands of them in the new internet and digital age that did not exist in 1983) who themselves may have stepped into the "lucky 1%" for a while until the unforgiving market forces re-distributed their wealth.

      This is the way of the capitalist system that has developed this into the greatest country on earth in just a few hundred years. You must be able to see that the other 99% are not failures and that the 99% contains those who have previously been in the top 1% and those who strive to knock someone out of that lofty perch and occupy it themselves for a while.

      Next time you get to feeling sorry for yourself and the other members of the 99 and want to blame the 1% for your own troubles, just look around. You might spot some kid (white, black, hispanic, asian, etc, male or female) sweeping floors at night to put themselves through school. My hope is that you too will be inspired to get off your lazy ass and get to work thinking and dreaming of joining the 1%.
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    • Tue Mar 11th 10:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Spitzer: Self-Destruction
      Most of those with big egos are not going to put up with anyone who referrs them to counseling for self-destructive tendencies. They don't see that they need it and avoid anyone who might find their weaknesses.

      It is only after the fall that they come crying for the attention that they crave, and believe me they will blame it all on someone else.
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    • Mon Mar 10th 12:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dick Bove Says Banking Is Sound - Time to Buy Financials?
      Reading from my 30 year mortgage rate sheet this morning, I find that the interest rate on a conforming loan (under $417,000) for an individual with a credit score above 680 would be 5.875%-6.00%. That assumes the loan officer/broker does it for free. Add the usual costs for legal, title insurance, closing, etc, and you will have an APR of around 6.125%.

      Contrary to what this author states, there are no 30 year fixed mortgage at 4.88% unless you are willing to pay cash at closing to buy the rate down. If the borrower wants to take out cash, pay interest only, borrow in excess of 70% of the appraisal or achieve some other individual goal, then the interest rate will be higher.

      Mortgage rates are around 1% higher today as compared to mid-January.
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    • Thu Mar 6th 22:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Traders Brace Themselves for Retest of January Lows
      "Depending on the economic and earnings picture at that point, it could very well give investors a chance to take some chips off the table."

      Sorry, but I don't follow you. "Investors" are supposed to take some chips off the table? I thought they were "investors" and not "traders". "Investors should have taken their chips off the table in November when the market gave it up after coming to the conclusion that the Fed's continuing band-aids will not work. Lower Fed Funds rates apparently = higher long term rates.

      Deflation is what's coming and the housing market is where it first started to manifest itself. Mortgages and all the detrius of leveraged finance was next. Now the US stock market is joining in. The BRIC's are next, followed eventually by the commodity bubble's pop, but perhaps in another 6 months or so.
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    • Wed Jan 9th 00:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      5 Stages of Market Grief
      Here is a another read on the stages of depression:

      1. Start with "Normal Functioning" back at the end of 2006.
      2. Proceed to Shock and Denial (Avoidance, Confusion, Fear, Numbness, Blame), then
      3. Anger (Frustration, Anxiety, Irritation, Embarrasment, Shame)
      4. Depression and Detachment (Overwhelmed, Blahs, No Energy, Helplessness)
      5. Dialogue and Bargaining (Reaching out to others, Desire to tell one's story, Struggle to find meaning for what happened).
      6. Acceptance (Exploring options, A new plan in place).
      7. Return to a Meaningful Life (Empowerment, Security, Self-Esteem, Meaning).

      On the above scale, I would put us currently at just about somewhere in numbers 2 and 3. The fear set in today with release of the AT&T data showing "disconnection of phone and high speed internet service lines". There goes the telecommuter. Who gets the blame? The Fed, of course for being "behind the curve".

      The reality is that nothing can stop this train on its way to the bottom, and nobody is yet forecasting just where that point is going to be. How about Dow 10,000? Does anyone remember Bill Gross' forecast of Dow 5,000 a few years back? I do, as I used it to caution clients about over-eager equity positions. Of course, he was wrong then, and so was I, but how about this time now?

      The "dialogue and bargaining" phase should be going on about now at Bear and Merrill. Ditto at GS Global Macro. Soon these mis-managers will be "seeking new options", and "putting a new plan in place" in their never-ending "search for self-esteem and meaning" in all matters of life.

      Enjoy the ride as we continue short the financials and REIT's.
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    • Wed Oct 31st 11:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the Market Misreading the Fed?
      What do you suggest as a remedy to an undefined problem? The size of your neigbor's bank account, house, automobile, etc. are his business, not yours. The challenge of those "savers" is figuring out a way to improve their own situation, and pulling their neighbor down doesn't pull them up. The issue isn't the "savers", as they have done good work to have saved anything in this society that demands that you spend it all even before you get it.

      Anyone who has spent time with the "great unwashed classes" knows that if you confiscated all the wealth of the "top 1% obese" and distributed it among the Dems favorites in the inner city jungles, the money would be back in the pockets of its righful owners within a year. But wouldn't that be a great experiment to watch.
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    • Tue Oct 30th 11:01 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Cutting Rates Further Will Only Lead to Disaster
      Re: Helping adjustable-rate mortgages with a Fed cut. Sorry, but most of those adjustable rate loans are linked to LIBOR. I understand that at the time some of these mortgages were originated (especially the option-arms) the borrower could choose between a LIBOR-based adjustment or some other basis, such as a 3 mo T-Bill or CD. Since LIBOR has historically been the lower nominal rate, borrowers naturally chose it. Now it is working to their detriment.
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    • Mon Oct 22nd 14:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Selling Long Positions, Going Short and Buying Gold
      I'm not so sure that I agree with your $1000 price for gold, but I do agree on the potential for gold in light of the dollar decline and the notion that the soverign funds may step up their buying of gold in lieu of dollar denominated assets. It is also a hedge against the continued rise of the dollar-denominated oil price. I own EGO,IAG,KGC,HMY,SWC & LMC. Some getting slammed today, but perhaps a good entry point for your purchases.

      Gold seems to be a reasonable place to wait out the increasingly unreadable noise coming from around the financial world. I'll certainly take the $1000 if it comes and wish you the best in your investment.
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    • Sat Sep 22nd 11:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Call to Short U.S. Stocks
      Re: Peter Grandich's call to short the market by going long the leverag ed funds:

      Please post a photocopy of an audited statement showing the purchase of at least $1 million of the funds or refrain from making such stupid public calls. Bernake and Paulson will roast you and anyone else following this advice again, as they have done twice now.

      Speaking of Mr Paulson, if you saw GS earnings this week, you noticed that they made as much money shorting mortgages as they did unloading the securitized garbage on customers. How would you like to be one their suckers taking the advice of "Here, have some more slime, its good for you. Don't worry, they're rated AAA."
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