irondoor91

Total Rating:
0 / 0

118 Comments

    • Tue Mar 13th 20:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Subprime Fallout Lead to a Depression?
      Re: the posts on Bill Cara's site:

      Does anyone out there remember Howard Ruff, the author of Ruff Times? Howard made a major killing offering seminars, books and products for survival in the "inflation-depres... of the 70's. He also sold dried food and advised people to move to the countryside and be prepared to defend themselves from the folks who would be leaving the big city housing projects when the depression hit. Better get those 1,000 gallon tanks of fuel in the ground. Shotguns, generators, etc.

      Get a life, folks. If Bill really belived in his own cool-aid, he would be giving specific investment advice on what stocks to short. But no, all he can do is tell you why no matter what you do, nothing is going to save your precious retirement other than to buy physical gold. Try taking your gold down to the local grocery store and convert it into food. How about buying some gasoline? Paying your insurance premium? But, why think about that when you're going to be up in the mountains living in a cave anyway. No need for insurance up there.

      You know who is going to make out in the sub-prime crisis? Mortgage brokers who will re-finance the same people who took out these loans in the first place. Look for the good old Federal Reserve to come to the rescue.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 3rd 10:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chicago Fed: Housing Bubble Was Driven by 'Wealth Creation Technology'
      I believe that many of these second homes were purchased with an adjustable rate home equity loan on their primary residence. I expect that they still have substantial equity in their primary residence, a low fixed rate mortgage on it in addition to the home equity loan. Those nearing retirement generally plan to sell their primary residence, pay off both loans and own their retirememet home debt-free.

      The downside to this plan is that the overall real estate market may not support the demand needed to sell these primary residences at the expected price when they are ready to retire and move to the retirement home. If they have sufficient income, they can support the primary residence until the market recovers. If not, you will begin to see more downside in sales pricing.
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 4th 20:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Weighing the Risks of Investing -- and Not Investing -- in Stocks
      Would you happen to have a short list of those stocks that appear to be "undervalued"... On the other hand, consider Google. Is it "overvalued"... ""undervalued"? It has certainly had a "great run". Just how do you determine "value"?

      One solution to the investor's problem is to just enter the market with a stop-loss. If he gets stopped out, his timing or stock selection was probably wrong. If he doesn't get stopped out, his timing was probably ok and he can move his stop up and protect his gains.

      When the market turns, he will get stopped out and then he has an opportunity to go short those "overvalued" stocks or purchase a short ETF. If he understands all this and is willing to pay attention he can make himself some money.
      View article »
    • Wed Dec 27th 21:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jones Soda's Recent Rally Was All Cramer
      What would be the result of doing your own "homework" on this company? Would you buy? Sell? How many shares? At what price would you get out? Where would you add to your position?
      View article »
    • Sun Dec 24th 11:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      John Hussman: The Dangers of Chasing The Bull
      Just enter a stop-loss order with your broker at a price that will get you out if the stock declines to the point at which you would like to retain the gain. If the price of the stock continues to advance, then move your stop up some.

      Then, when the inevitable decline that you are predicting comes (you will know it when most of your stocks begin to hit their stops), sell short those stocks that you consider to be much overvalued. Use stops with shorts also, of course.

      You can repeat this process over and over throughout all of these market cycles. Do it with full leverage and you will grow your account even more. Don't worry so much about the P/E's, etc. Just focus on price.
      View article »
    • Sat Dec 16th 10:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CPI Numbers Don't Square With Reality - Market To Climb Anyway
      Right, as usual, No DooDah.

      There is no profit potential (other than dividends and interest income, the value of which are either taxed or inflated away) without a trend. Your holding period may be thirty seconds or fifty years, but without a trend there is no gain. If you accept that, then all fundamental analysis adds is the basis for stock selection when trend following. Good fundamentals, buy in an uptrend. Bad fundamentals, short in a downtrend.

      However, shorting in an uptrend or buying in a downtrend, no matter what the fundamentals, is probably going to result in a lot of pain.
      View article »
    • Fri Dec 8th 18:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      I'm No Perma-Anything
      It is not difficult to right about the historical direction of price. Just stand back from the chart and look at it. If it is going up, it would be impossible to be wrong about the current direction of price.

      However, it is another thing to be right about the "future" direction of price. You will not know that until after the fact. It is the "prediction" about the future direction of price that causes the problem. For example, right now Barry is saying that his prediction about the economy will ultimately translate into lower prices. I assume then that he is short and has been short during his most recent bearishness.

      My point is, talk is cheap. Please provide a link to your account statement or your fund if you manage one so that readers can see the courage of your convictions.
      View article »
    • Mon Dec 4th 19:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Three Index Fund Portfolio: Solid, Not 'Sexy', Performance All But Guaranteed
      If the above recommendation is the winner, who are the losers?

      Must be all those millions of investors in actively managed mutual funds or those absurdly levered and unregulated hedge funds. This appears to be a real opportunity for regulators to ban any actively managed investment vehicle, especially if the author can back up his claim that volatility is bad and that international equity markets have a "fairly low" correlation with domestic markets. After all, no one in their right mind would put money into an investment that had any of those characteristics.

      While we're at it, why not ban any investment that charges a fee for service or that underperforms its index or "lipper average"? The fund companies should be forced to make up any underperformance to customers.

      Further, if smoking can be legislated out of existence in bars and restaurants, shouldn't this absurd "cocktail party" chatter about loser funds and hedgies be outlawed? I mean, come on, these things really should only be discussed in absolute secrecy or with one's therapist. Perhaps on the "cocktail party" invitation it should state that "if you must discuss investments, please refrain from mentioning your index funds so as not to hurt the feelings of those who may have other holdings".
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 23rd 22:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      No-Reason-Rally: Likely to Unwind
      Sorry, didn't mean to imply regarding your personal situation. More of a comment on the talking heads that have to fill the airtime or sell the company line.

      IMHO, here is my understand of what moves the market short term or long term: seems to me that when you have more buyers willing to pay a higher price than there are sellers at the current price, the market price goes up. When the opposite condition exists, the market price goes down. When the market is going up, you want to be long. When it is going down, you want to be short. In either case, use a stop because you will be wrong about half the time. The best indicator of where the market has been is price, but it doesn't tell you anything about tomorrow.
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 23rd 10:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Let Wall Street's Best Minds Speak Out
      Yes, Wall Street is "full of brilliant minds". You can witness this by the "brilliant" performance of the in-house mutual funds that the brokerages cram down the accounts of their hapless customers. While this is a travesty, even worse is the current move afoot by the SEC and Congress to prevent the retail investor or pension plans from putting any money into funds that can short the market or use leverage.

      The S&P 500 only recently recovered back to even after six years and a 40%+ drawdown. Of course, that represents a excellent investment choice according to the regulators and the index fund distributors. Just buy and hold into the sunset.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 14th 21:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      No-Reason-Rally: Likely to Unwind
      Can you really be SURE about anything/everything regarding the stock market? I mean, seriously, is it not just impossible? I suppose that some day this trend, like all others will end and then you can be SURE that it is over. My question to you is what will you do then?

      I know what I am going to do, which is just the opposite of what I have been doing since August 16th, but which also is the same thing I did on May 12th. I will be going short, on maximum margin, with appropriate stops of course.

      It is so easy just to follow the trend, with no bias and no need to have my so-called "fundamentals&quo... or market forecast validated. For example, I notice on this webpage under the heading "In this sector: Al eyes on this mornings PPI report". I ask you, is there any trade you would have actually done in your account either before or after this report? So what possible difference would it have made to you? Let's say the market dropped 100 points on the news. What then do you do? If it goes up 100 points, what trade do you make?

      Its all noise, but guys get paid millions to comment on it.

      Respectfully,

      Max Corder
      Bigfork, MT
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 12th 18:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Near a Housing Botttom?
      Barry,

      I've never been convinced that a "rally" (however you define one) in stock prices needs to be accompanied by the validation of an economic hypothesis. I have found that the best way to profit in the market is to just get on board with the trend when it evidences itself. This works both long and short. Eventually, the "rally" will fail, and perhaps sooner rather than later if the "fundamentals&quo... do not show up to support the increased prices. The current trend, like all others before it, will ultimately end and there will ample profits to be had on the short side as well.

      If one is wrong about the magintude or direction of a trend, some stop-loss discipline and money management is all that is needed. No need for concern about the "funnymentals&quo... especially the way the books may be cooked these days anyway, since the only thing you can take to the bank is either dividends or the profit you can earn from the change in stock prices anyway.
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 28th 19:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Despite the Recent Market Run-Up, I'm As Bearish As Ever
      I don't know why it is, but comments such as "fundamentals don't support rising prices" or "how long will this insanity last" and various conspiracy theories usually seem to accompany those sick feelings in the pit of the stomach when you are short in a bull market (and likewise if you are a buyer and holder in a bear market). The market is going to go wherever it is going to go, no matter your positions, fears, desires, needs for validation of your analysis, or hopes and dreams. If you cannot convert your ideas into computer code and trading rules, back-test your ideas and live with the inevitable drawdowns, you are going to have to live with consequences. The market can remain "befuddling" longer than you can remain solvent.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»