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arnebey

arnebey
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  • Transocean: Fuzzy Math Behind Moody's Downgrade - Part II [View article]
    I'm long with a 3-5 year window and adding on dips...something to consider is the following Forbes article quote by Jude Clemente, widely published energy analyst ...." Real wages in China have been increasing by ~12% a year for over the past decade. Yet, China today has just 75 vehicles for every 1,000 people, while the USA has 825. In turn, the average Chinese uses just 0.33 gallons of oil products a day, compared to 2.6 gallons for the average American.
    The punchline? Sit down. If the Chinese ever consume oil like we do, the world will need an additional 73 million barrels a day – a staggering 80% of current global supply! Even at half that, the world will need to find a new OPEC to satisfy incremental oil consumption in China!! Despite the “slowdown,” vehicle sales are expected to increase 8% to over 21 million units in 2015. Indeed, considering that oil has nowhere close to a large-scale substitute, standing steadfastly bullish on oil will ultimately prove a very wise bet."
    Mar 12, 2015. 06:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean: Fitch's New Rating Outlook Negative From Stable Spells A Dividend Cut - An Update [View article]
    Last week I went long RIG. I believe the negative cash-flow is approximately $1.1B at this point. Coincidentally, at $3/share, the dividend amounts to just under $1.1B. However, according to RIG's December presentation to the Cowen Ultimate Energy Conference December 2, 2014 (http://bit.ly/1LRCTjc), RIG has a backlog of $23.6B, they're concentrating on reducing costs, margin improvement, and divesting non-core assets to help mitigate deteriorating market conditions. And I'm wondering what role Transocean Partners LLP can play in helping to liquify some of RIG's assets. The following is from the report.
    • Set objective of ~$800 million in margin improvement by year‐end 2015
    • $300 million shore‐based cost reduction versus 2012 base
    • $500 million margin expansion, all else being equal, from operational efficiencies
    • Approximately 45% is cost reduction
    • Other opportunities for continuous improvement
    So it doesn't appear as if RIG will need to turn to elimination of the Dividend. However, I'm assuming at this point there will be a dividend reduction.
    Feb 5, 2015. 06:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Next Billion-Dollar Business [View article]
    Tim Cook and company are Silicon Valley techie nerds...a completely different culture than Dre and Iovine's Hollywood/Entertainment folk. Dre and Iovine's acqui-hire is about "content" in all media with music as a good starting point. And also about how Apple can improve it's "street cred" and communicate with the rising millenial youth culture.
    Sep 23, 2014. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q3 Bonanza: The Real Story May Be Not Quite So Bullish [View article]
    What a joke! All that effort for??? PAGE VIEWS...and $$$. Michael Blair is the financial world's version of "The World Wrestling Federation"...a fake...but popular nonetheless with the crowd that loves anxiety inducing entertainment.
    Jul 25, 2014. 11:16 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Bishop On Apple: We Need More Mojo [View article]
    OK folks NEWS BULLETIN ! P.R. man David Wolfe's client's are non-other than MOTOROLA and GOOGLE ! I did some research...desperate, shoddy "hit piece" by an insincere paid gun! Is there no shame in this world anymore?
    Sep 23, 2013. 10:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Bishop On Apple: We Need More Mojo [View article]
    David...your bio should have read "Managing Director" of China Malpractice" ! Your article reads like weird science fiction...either that or you're a desperate "short" position guy! With "insights" such as yours all I can say is, good luck to your clients...that is IF your company and position aren't also fictional! Jeeze your article scrapes the bottom of the Rotten Apple barrel...but I did get a good laugh out of it. You really should do better things with your time.
    Sep 23, 2013. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Huberty: iPhone CQ3 demand well above expectations [View news story]
    I think APPLE could use a better approach to public and investor relationship. But Steve Jobs...and now Tim Cook and his team are a bunch of VERY bright guys.Secrecy...doling out as little information as required certainly holds Wall Street, the media and public interest...it's the "Garbo" or "Dylan" affect! A sliver of truth, a picture of a new chip or new device, and the rumor-mill goes wild. The value in terms of "brand impressions"...ie free publicity is incalculable. Remember, in the world of brand marketing, there is no such thing as bad publicity. Samsung wishes they had that kind of "star power".
    Sep 18, 2013. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's 5c Phone Pricing Makes Perfect Sense [View article]
    A well thought out, cogent bit of writing. Congratulations James Yardley. Clearly you understand marketing as it pertains to retail price strategies...Wall Street wags don't! I've read so many AAPL articles in the last few days. Your report deserves to reach a much wider audience. It's worthy of being published in Forbes. This one succinctly hits the ball over the wall for me. Your reasoning really resonated with me because have more than 30 years of brand-building/product launch experience.
    Sep 12, 2013. 08:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: China Telecom, Unicom to begin selling iPhone 5S/5C on Sep. 20 [View news story]
    I call Apple the "Scarlet Letter" stock. Can there be redemption after the fall from grace? Can Apple recover from the loss of Steve Jobs...who by the way never visited China? I like the post above, "the market knows nothing". Obviously, the market and Apple in particular is prone to huge price distortions (both upside and downside). Pro's such as Einhorn and Ichan are hugely successful because they see what few others see. They know what to do and then they do it. They put their money where their mouth is. Apple is the proverbial "elephant in the room". It's hard to believe anyone would believe the most valuable company in the world; a company with a hoard of $135B net cash, enormous momentum and world-class, innovative brain power will not succeed. Market share is NOT the issue...profits and growth are the issue. I think the Apple/Mercedes Benz/BMW comparison is valid. Do you see Mercedes market share compared to Ford or GM? I'm glad and proud to say I purchased my AAPL position at $400 and I'm comfortable that AAPL will reach $700 between now and 2015.
    Sep 6, 2013. 03:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Two iPhones shipping in early September [View news story]
    I agree China Mobile will be a huge catalyst. CEO Cook's recent visit with the China Mobile Chairman is an important sign. When the world's most powerful CEO's meet (much like heads of state), typically, most of the deal point kinks have been ironed out, so as to avoid potential disagreements or worse yet, surprise, embarrassment and 'loss of face'. China Mobile Chairman's recent optimistic remarks about an Apple deal were a good sign.Therefore Cook's trip suggests that both Apple and China Mobile teams working on a mutually beneficial deal have either arrived at an agreement or were very close...thereby handing the final "victory lap" preordained decisions for the meeting of their respective bosses. True, CEO Tim Cook visited the other two carriers and various suppliers in China...balance is particularly important in the far east or in any negotiation for that matter. However, no doubt a China Mobile deal was the "front of the plate" prize motivating the trip. Pulling off a China Mobile deal and launching a more popularly priced "emerging market" smart phone at this point (in addition to all the other developments in the pipeline) would be a grand slam play! I am not a professional analyst, but I would not be surprised if Apple earned $54/share - 2014.
    Aug 19, 2013. 08:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple buys video discovery app Matcha.tv; 37 new patents granted [View news story]
    How about an apple app that gets rid of all your wallet full of credit cards...just wave your iphone in front of a scanner! On top of that...how bout including driver's license with pic ID, SS card, etc.??? I wonder why this hasn't happened already?
    Aug 14, 2013. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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