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E.D. Hart

E.D. Hart
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  • Futures sink following Greek elections [View news story]
    Re: "By the way, all this talk about the Euro falling apart is pure nonsense."
    or until Spain and Italy decide that they are restricted in ways the would rather not be, and realize the cost is greater than the benefits....
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are Government Promises Worth - Gold, The SNB, And Sovereign Debt (Part 1) [View article]
    The graph shows a ratio of the Euro to the Franc: far left is 1.5 or there are 1.5 Euros per Swiss Franc , and by the far right the ratio is 1:1 implying rough parity. Therefore the Euro buys fewer Francs, or the Swiss Franc buys more Euros.
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The ECB Kill The Gold Rally? [View article]
    correlation is not causation. If we buy you correlation argument, then is it not logical that gold will rally based on lower liquidity, and less money circulating?
    Jan 21, 2015. 06:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summary (And Extension!) Of My Post-CPI Tweets [View article]
    RE: "Interestingly, a movement the other way – to raise interest rates – will likely also cause inflation to rise as it will raise money velocity."

    True, and scary. Very few people seem to be thinking this way, but we seem to be trapped into a situation where we can expect higher inflation as the only outcome....
    Jan 16, 2015. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Gold Trade: Why Gold Hates Inflation [View article]
    The real interest rate matters because gold competes against other investments, particularly safe interest bearing ones.

    Safe bonds are no longer safe when they yield negative rates, and interest rates don't compensate for inflation.

    We are in an environment more similar to the 1930's than the stagflation of the 1970's and soaring inflation.

    In the 1930's gold increased (effectively as dollar was devalued in gold terms) despite low or non-existent inflation. In the 1930's interest rates were largely zero or negative, and gold was an asset that gained in value against other assets.
    Jan 13, 2015. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips66: Making All The Right Moves And A Screaming Buy [View article]
    How does it compare to Holly Frontier?
    Dec 12, 2014. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth-Sapping Effect Of The Minimum Wage [View article]
    Unions love it? Yes, but the Unions are weaker than they've ever been, and are not the driving force for minimum wages any more...percentage of people employed in a union oganized job are at almost all time low.
    Dec 11, 2014. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth-Sapping Effect Of The Minimum Wage [View article]
    Hmmmmmmmmmmm....that doesnt seem right in the aggregate...I will mull this one....I get your point...but...it seems you are missing something...
    Dec 11, 2014. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth-Sapping Effect Of The Minimum Wage [View article]
    Once again you are correct...I was amusing myself...it wasnt important that I be correctly interpreted...merely a means for rhetoric...
    Dec 11, 2014. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth-Sapping Effect Of The Minimum Wage [View article]
    Agreed, I was being sarcastic...indeed there must be a minimum wage...then there must be an optimal level....
    Dec 11, 2014. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth-Sapping Effect Of The Minimum Wage [View article]
    Why have any minimum wage at all? Just let the market set the rate, and get the government out of the way? How about it IT?
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook For Gold [View article]
    "We are in a quiet period now and only the chinese/ russians / indians are buying. "

    So only 2.6 billion people are buying?
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:08 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most Gold Market Analysts Don't Understand The Most Basic Law Of Economics [View article]
    Author,
    Ok so who do you read and follow then?
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Way Overrated [View article]
    The four major summary points you make apply even more so to cash. No paper currency has ever lasted. By your own reasoning one should hold no more than 1% of your assets in cash/currency for the same reasons you mention.

    But I would argue that in times of financial stress (need not be Armageddon) gold is superior to cash. Every fiat paper regime has collapsed. Gold competes against paper--it is the only currency without a country, and the only currency that cannot be printed ex nihlo.
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:19 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Bubble Is Deflating, And Resistance Is Futile [View article]
    The explanation is always the same: supply and demand. Looking backward, demand swamped supply as Central Banks stopped selling en mass, and in particular-- in the east emerging market demand surged.

    The period of correction over the last 3 years are not difficult to explain in that the dollar has surged, interest rates have been trending more positive, and the financial system has reached a short term equilibrium. Demand has tempered.

    My point that I don't need to explain it was in reference to the short term and medium term corrections. All bull markets have corrections.

    I don't need to be able to explain the stock chart of my favorite stock over the last 3-4 years to know it is a good investment going forward. Obviously earnings, valuation expansion, or valuation contraction, and dividends drive stock prices.

    Gold is different, ( driven by supply and demand that is easily manipulated), but not so different that an educated macro call cant be made over the long term. (I consider ten years long term).

    You may not agree with their calls but Ray Dalio, Seth Klarman, and Alan Greenspan --among many others-- have made the same point--gold is worth owning in a portfolio over the long term as a hedge against currency debasement.

    Particularly in a negative interest rate environment.

    I'm worried about the global currency war, and negative interest rates, as well as the inflating bond bubble--so I invest a part of my portfolio in gold-- the only global currency that can't be printed.

    Its not perfect, it can be manipulated in the short and medium terms, but in the long term, prices will out as players realize the relative dearth of physical.

    I would be crazy not to hedge my stock and bond exposure.
    Nov 24, 2014. 01:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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