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E.D. Hart
143 Comments
Where We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases
And we lack leadership to an incredible degree...
Therefore what should we expect?
Jim Rogers Speaks Out - Where Is He Putting His Money?
Sure, short term deflation, but the secular long term inflation trend is still intact.
Nation's Debt: It's Not Being Rescued, It's Being Moved Around
"Off budget" accounting ring any bells?
War will cost 50 billion and will be repaid from Iraqi oil funds sound familiar?
Not putting the war in the budget--thats ok!
well charge it and not include it in our budget.
Guess who the cheerleaders were selling us this mendacity?
Bush and the necon cabal.
Yes, blame congress, lots of blame to go around, but Bush spent his political capital on bankrupting our country, lying to us the entire way about the need to war, and the need to deregulate, the need to lower taxes.
War on terror was really the "war on truth".
Freemarkets are the solution to all the worlds problems (that and a huge military budget) ---and can only thrive unfettered by sissy regulations.
We loved it while credit flowed.
Never have so many have been fooled for so long.
Looking for a Silver Lining? Hedge Funds Now Opening to New Investors
Getting Ready for... Anything
The big questions are:
1) Are we headed for deflation, or inflation?
2) What asset classes do I need to be in to participate from the economy going forward?
3) What is the best way to participate in that asset class?
4) What risk management tools do I have in place?
Just a thought....
America Needs a Turnaround Plan
America Needs a Turnaround Plan
Raising Americas debt in 7/12 years from some 5 trillion to some 9 trillion as the Bush Administration has done will require raising taxes.
Period.
Get used to it. It may be in two or three years, or four years, but it is a forgone conclusion.
Can anyone seriously argue against this?
It has nothing to do with fairness either, it is simple math, and economics.
Eventually the costs of not taxing (much higher interest rates, and a continually declining dollar) will exceed the costs of taxing, and politicians will punt.
Do we have the courage to elect politicians to tell us the truth, or do we need Reaganesque talking points designed to make us feel better about our shining city on the hill?
Morning in America or ten minutes to midnite?
When the lights go out on the hill, we will have wished we paid more taxes.
Its not defeatist to admit reality.
The U.S. Economy After the Bailout
The Japanese are still digging out of their credit contraction, some twenty years later.
We are in for a similar decline, I fear.
Update: Crude Oil, Priced in Gold
Why must oil fall? There is no economic law that finite commodities in tight supply must revert to the mean. Particularly in a declining currency.
Hence the comparison to gold?
But gold is not a stable currency, and is also effected by some of the same forces driving oil. (inflation hedge).
If anything, as peak oil moves beyond the US fields which are in decline, to the Middle East, the supply/demand will become even tighter. Oil becomes more dear.
Longer term, prices must rise in stable currency. You could have just as easily written that Oil has much more to gain looking out to 2015 as demand marches upward, and production fails to keep up with demand.
The best minds (Maxwell, Goldman Sachs, Wulff) all point in the same direction--higher prices down the road.
But your comparison is not to a stable currency--but Gold--which is interesting, but is widely know to be a manipulated commodity.
You could have compared the price of oil in mangoes and rice and it would give you a different result, but still interesting.
I read the Forbes article:
"It was a perfect storm. The Federal Reserve was cutting interest rates and people were running away from the dollar as it lost value. Hedge funds, pension funds and mutual funds started pumping money into commodities because they were the safest place and the safest of them all was crude oil. There were too many dollars chasing too few physical assets. That's the bottom line."
I would not call it a perfect storm, but the perfect climate. We still have too many dollars chasing too few physical assets. Its the same climate.
The Forbes Article makes the case, in my mind, that we are at the early stages of a bull market in commodities. The dollars fundamanetals have only declined.
There is nothing to break the long term trend of a declining buck. There is nothing, long term, to break the oil supply/demand imbalance. (yes, demand destruction is baked in for short to medium term)
Therefore, oil will continue to be an inflation hedge.
Therefore, oil will continue to see so called "speculation"... from those protecting their declining dollars.
Nothing has changed in the long term picture. (albeit credit contraction could drive short to medium term contraction of money supply).
long term, nothing has changed, thats the bottom line.
Assets and Capital: The Two Major Issues in this Crisis
Estimates of the derivative obligations are many, but I've seen $63trillion quoted widely, though I doubt anyone really knows.
With all due respect to Mr. Mason, I believe the article above is too simplistic because it fails to take into account the massive cascading effects from derivatives market.
Just as a nuclear explosion doesn't just incinerate its target, but spreads fallout globally for years, so to the approach that would allow the market to work its magic.
In this case its magic, due to unregulated derivitives, is more like nuclear fallout that would effect solvent and healthy banks around the globe for years. In summary, capital around the globe will be destroyed, and impaired to a far greater and larger degree with a let the market fail approach.
I'm Speechless: Palin on the Bailout
Answer: 1)Shes magnificently unprepared for the job of vice president
and 2) She is a heartbeat away from the presidency.
I agree with HARM...cognitive dissonance, disconnect, and hypocrisy is staggering.
The Calm Before the Storm?
It's the End Of the World As We Know It and I Own Gold
I have no doubt that the secular bull market in commodities will eventually come to a close--in about 15 years.
Why do we have low rates?
Is it because we are in a very low inflationary period and it is required to keep prices relatively stable?
or is it because we have a federal reserve that is too afraid to take its medicine and pay the price of the tech bubble, then the housing bubble, and eventually the commodity bubble?
If you believe the goverments reports about inflation and jobs then you may be inclined to the former. If you beleive that the government systematically lies to us about jobs, growth, and inflation for their own agenda--then you may be inclined to the latter view.
If the latter view is correct, then we are likely headed into a period of much higher inflation for a sustained period of time.
If you believe the "crisis is largely contained" Fed and Treasury...then it is feasible that we are merely witnessing an anomoly that will revert to the mean shortly.
The government would love for you to believe that Gold is a horrible investment, and that you should hold dollars and treasuries.
Who do you believe? I expect gold to violently explode to the upside as people get a tingling sense that dollars are guaranteed to lose much more value than they are used to losing.
Kinda depends on whom you trust.
And I'm not even a conspiracy buff...just a middle class guy with a two kids that i want to send to college.
It's the End Of the World As We Know It and I Own Gold
Gold is good also.
These equity and debt bugs are puzzling to me.
Cant eat gold? So what?
You cant bury a steak in your back yard and dig it up when you need to to trade for anything you need--like bullets or cigarettes, bribes, etc.
Stock bullets? Yep that makes sense, you can do both.
Gold isn't insurance as most insurance expires worthless. Gold is a store of value--like cash--only better.
if you are a debt bug---and have all of your assets stored in treauries--I hope you are taking into account that you are paying the government for the privelege of loaning it money.
You are guaranteed to lose money by buying US bonds in todays market.
$800 Billion for RTC 2.0 - Then What?