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E.D. Hart

E.D. Hart
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  • The World's Most Undervalued Stock Markets [View article]
    "If future inflation is likely to be "much higher", the ten year bond yields will adjust when that actually happens. 10 year bond yields aren't just predictors of future inflation. They incorporate past inflation and current inflation too."

    I think that in normal times that this is correct. These are not normal times.
    Apr 11, 2015. 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World's Most Undervalued Stock Markets [View article]
    RE: "Thus, we get an adjusted premium of corporate earnings over inflation."

    No we don't...we get an adjusted premium over bond yields. In an era of financial repression and negative rates the relationship between bond yields and "risk-free" 10 year yields has broken down.

    Investors have to now also take into account that the ten year yield is highly manipulated...and not compensating for future inflation.

    Say German bunds yield 1.5% and inflation averages 2.5; investors have not been compensated for this risk if they eyeball the ten year and think that is in any way accurate predictor of future inflation.

    I'm not saying that I think that inflation will average 2.5% in Germany or Europe over the next decade--far from it.

    I am saying that future inflation is likely to be much higher than the ten years globally suggest, and hence your graphs need a downward adjustment.
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Gold Could Have Momentum, But Long-Term Outlook Is Still Questionable [View article]
    The reason to like SAND now is valuation: less than half the valuation of bigger royalty/streamers at EV/cash flow basis/
    Apr 11, 2015. 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Gold Could Have Momentum, But Long-Term Outlook Is Still Questionable [View article]
    The best case scenario going forward may be as an acquisition candidate--being acquired by FNV, SLW, or RGLD. A friendly takeover would command an instant 50% premium or more. LONG: FNV, SLW.
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Anheuser-Busch For Steady, Reliable Growth [View article]
    I don't particularly like the valuation...
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Federal Reserve And The Fear Trade Do For Gold [View article]
    Yes, this article has it exactly right....good balanced view of the relationship of inflation, interest rates, and gold.
    Mar 20, 2015. 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Currencies Teeter As Bonds Offer 'Return-Free Risk' [View article]
    Ironically, Buffet bought silver, made some money and sold too soon (by his own admission) and silver continued its ascent. More ironically still, Warren points out the risky nature of cash over significantly long time periods, but dismisses gold as a relic. (even though he bought silver).

    Anywayyyyyyyy....the major point of this article is solid...precious metals can maintain purchasing power, and cash is not risk free.

    What really makes a difference is the time horizon one is looking at.
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower GLD Prices Will Cause Production Declines In The Immediate Future [View article]
    Agreed, Johnchew--production has no effect for gold on prices at this time.
    Mar 11, 2015. 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Great Leap Forward Towards Gold Market Dominance [View article]
    Dallas, if you acquire commodity stocks at their lows, incrementally invest monthly, then you are bound to be ahead in five years time...I'm talking high quality dividend paying commodity stocks.
    Mar 11, 2015. 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower GLD Prices Will Cause Production Declines In The Immediate Future [View article]
    I enjoyed the article, but...

    RE: "My ultimate downside target is 90-100 for GLD because that is where producers would be squeezed so hard that mines would have to be shut down. Big/significant mines too, not just small/insignificant ones."

    Except that the price of gold has nothing to do with the new supply coming online in any given period. Normal supply/demand calculations are irrelevant to GLD and gold because it is not like any other commodity---its stock to flow ratio is enormous, and the new supply minuscule compared to supply above ground.

    Moreover, the paper market seems to have the upper hand for now. Physical doesn't seem to matter for now. (until the day it finally does).

    Right now the "professional" gold (read paper) traders have been winning this game, and driving prices down--controlling the game. I wonder if they think that their cannot be a force majeure? or a default on the gold derivative market?

    Reminds me of all the professional Wall Street bankers who were the experts on sub-prime tranches, who said, rightly, that sub-prime tranches had never failed, and that the risk was almost non-existent. Until Lehman, and the icebergs...

    But of course plate tectonic forces have a way of holding, holding, holding, until an earth quake results. I wonder if one day we will wake up and prices will be set by physical ...(China?).

    Until then, Im holding gold royalty companies and miners, and temporarily losing my shirt.
    Long: BALMF, XPL, KLNDX, FNV, SLW.
    Mar 11, 2015. 12:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices Will Likely Remain Low For Some Time [View article]
    Michael,
    Please see: http://bit.ly/1Br7Yoc
    for info on Indian Gold duties...\
    cheers,
    -e
    Mar 9, 2015. 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices Will Likely Remain Low For Some Time [View article]
    Michael,
    Please see: http://bit.ly/1G9ddtw

    for long term reason for golds rise,
    cheers,
    -e
    Mar 9, 2015. 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Great Leap Forward Towards Gold Market Dominance [View article]
    Blackberryman,
    See: http://bit.ly/1G9ddtw

    for rising influence of China
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices Will Likely Remain Low For Some Time [View article]
    Dollars and gold are both safe haven currencies--one key difference is that the supply of gold grows 1.7% per year and the supply of dollars grows 10% plus.

    Foreign holders of dollars are nervous because they know that the only way that the US can steer itself out of insolvency is financial repression resulting in negative interest rates, inflation as a policy, and fiat ex nihlo.

    The global macro environment has changed radically where now we see central banks globally lowering rates, and competitively devaluing.

    Historically, over the long term, these are precisely the times when it is rational to own gold.
    Mar 9, 2015. 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices Will Likely Remain Low For Some Time [View article]
    Since I'm hedging my US dollar exposure, and the US dollar has been on a tear--the near term may be down.

    The title of the article is " Gold Prices Will Likely Remain Low For Some Time". Reading the author I surmised his conclusions were beyond the short term.

    Gold may decrease in the short term--especially on Euro collapse fears, and dollar strength. Gold indeed may go up and down, just as markets do everywhere.

    Since I'm not trading gold, these market cycles are noise, and not signal. I think the jury is out on "major collapse"...

    Reply at the end of the year if there is a "new low" and I'll eat a miniature hat...
    Mar 9, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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