E.D. Hart

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147 Comments

    • Mon Apr 28th 19:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Bill Miller Losing His Touch?
      The difference between Miller and Buffet is huge: Miller doubled down on firms that destroyed shareholder value, while Buffet plows cash into companies deeply out of favor in the go-go 90's, but nonetheless profitable firms.

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    • Mon Apr 28th 15:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Let's Think Long and Hard About Extending Those Bush Tax Cuts
      Skjellifetti--right on. I agree completely. There is too much ideology posted here, and not enough critical thinking.

      It reminds me of debates on abortion, gun rights, and the Iraq war. Both sides know they are right, and neither side listens to the other.

      From a previous post--"More taxes are never the answer"? --is a curious comment. Then does it follow that "lower taxes are always the answer"? To an effective rate of Zero?

      How bout this thought: Taxes are a patriotic duty.

      What a concept.

      The tax debate is the wrong one to focus on anyway--the real debate should be--how can we stop our currency from falling?

      This is at least as important as it erodes everyones purchasing power, and "taxes" silently. With the dollar falling and off some 40% in 8 years--the "tax" to your income is every bit as real, but more severe.

      Isn't this the point th author was making?
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    • Wed Apr 23rd 20:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold/Dow Ratio: Where Are We Holding?
      As near as I can tell, when the ratio line drops below the average it is approximately 20 years until the average crosses the line on the upside.

      Since we are just crossing to the downside now, this suggests another 20 years below average--If the past if predictive of the future.

      Thats a pretty big if. I agree with the broad brush strokes of this theory, but not the application of years to go in the trend.

      As this recent stock bull market and gold bear market was quite extreme, we may see much longer to work through the excesses of inflation and pent up commodity demand---in other words, the peak to peak may be much longer as this last peak was more pronounced.

      Theretofore, golds recent out-performance may last a lot longer than the authors article states.

      We also have the additional phenomenon of central bank gold hoarding that skewed the picture in the 80's and 90's.

      As the dishoarding comes to an end, and other newly powerful banks come into the markets for gold...we will see a more natural gold demand. (i.e.-not subject to government manipulation to the same degree).

      or not.
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    • Wed Apr 23rd 15:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Craig Israelsen: Commodities Provide Good Diversification
      A timely and important article. By the time that this information becomes widely known, believed, and practiced, the commodity bull will be over.

      Studies show that investors are slow to adapt to changing environments and new paradigms that conflict with what they think they know.

      People that include a percentage of their portfolio to commodities will be better off on average over the next decade. Great article, thanks.
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    • Fri Apr 18th 19:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Citigroup's Flush
      We've heard from Citigroup before..."no dividend cuts"...and then they cut. Why should we believe anything they say?
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    • Thu Apr 17th 14:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Recession Will Be Short and Shallow
      Sometimes pessimism is warranted. Being contrary about consensus makes as much sense as being a sheep.

      The great Japanese deflation was first thought to be, "short and shallow". Repeatedly.

      We are still not sure about when this recovery will occur, but the Japanese recovery has been called early repeatedly, and incorrectly.

      About 18 years of short and shallow. And the Japanese deflation was caused at least in part, by a real estate bubble collapse.

      Sound familiar?
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    • Wed Apr 16th 15:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Who's to Blame for the Commodities Boom?
      The authors article is dead on. People are protecting their wealth by buying the commodities boom.

      What is a speculating anyway?

      Someone who thinks they know where the price is going to be at a point of time in the future. It has always been thus.

      I own 80% of my portfolio in long commodity based equities, and I'm outperforming the market, plus a few ETF's that are long silver and gold.

      Is this specualtion? Of course it is.

      Do I contribute to the problem? Incrementally, yes.

      Is it rational, right, and legitimate to do so? Well according to some yes, others no.

      The US government, and the current neoconservative cabal is anticonservative in the cpaital markets in ways that no other group has been in American history.

      Without commodities in my portfolio, I believe strongly that great wave of inflation currently hitting our economy would prevent me from ever retiring, or preserving my wealth.

      If the worlds average Joe is the one bearing the cost, well, diversify your portfolio friend.

      Unhappy about the price of gas? Buy oil/gas stocks with good growth profiles: DVN, CNQ, and PWE are a few of my favorites.
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    • Wed Apr 16th 14:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The 7 'Golden Rules' of Picking a Gold Stock
      Goldcorp fits your seven rules nicely. I own GG.
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    • Mon Apr 14th 01:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Back to 1998: Lessons from the G7 Then and Now
      Carter,
      or Nixon with his anti-inflation campaign?

      I don't think its Dems vs. Republicans--I thinks its ideologues, vs pragmatists. Both parties have both types.

      In my experience, ideologues do the most damage. Lets get away from slogans and loyalty to ideology, and toward rational, empirical, skeptical, and critical thinking.
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    • Mon Apr 14th 01:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Cheap Oil Syndrome: 3 Stocks to Benefit
      In my little world, for what its worth, I prefer to blame the "compassionate conservatives" (an oxymoron if ever there was one) and "neo-conservative... for the high oil prices.

      Think what the $3 Trillion Iraq WAR funds would have done instead for national energy investments of all kinds. I have some engineering training, and a little economics, and with 3 trillion bucks I bet we could invest in a "Manhattan Project" style Energy Initiative that would put us on a sustainable energy path. How much research and results could 3 trillion buy?

      Oops, we already spent it on Iraq. Never mind. I blame Teddy Kennedy for not stopping the War.
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    • Mon Apr 14th 01:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much Are Goldman's Level 3 Assets Worth?
      Gary,
      I agree with most of what you said, particularly that the premium is coming off GS. I have friends who work for GS, and they are very worried.

      Here is another analogy: You bought a house for 670,000 but two years later it is appraised for 1 Million Dollars. (spoken like Mike Myers).

      But then you find you have termites, and you call out the inspector/pest control guy--but they cant look at the foundation--they can only look at the upper floors.

      And you ask him--well what will it take to kill the termites? And he cant tell you, he's not allowed to look at the foundation. And you get the hosue appraised again, and you ask the appraiser--what is my house worth? And he says between $50,000 and $900,000, depending on what it costs to fix the foundation. We may have to destroy the whole house ($2 buyout).

      Its toxic waste, but I prefer "termites in the foundation" metaphor and no one knows (except perhaps the banks) how bad they are.

      Unlike in real estate, however, that have full disclosure laws when you buy a house, when you buy a bank stock, you have no idea whats in the foundation, or on the balance sheet. (or off the balance sheet).

      We may see GS hit 125. I also believe that DOW 9000 is more likely in next 24 months, than DOW 15,000.
      Disclosure: I have now position in GS, short or long.

      My question: What do regulators do for a living?
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    • Sun Apr 13th 17:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fed Easing: No Free Lunch for Dollar, Oil and Commodities
      Bravo John Egan. To a certain extent you get the government you deserve...but the current government is acting above the law, above the constitution, and certainly above the wishes of the people.
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    • Thu Apr 10th 17:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil, Iraq and U.S. Foreign Policy: A Way Forward
      We must also terminate the Saudi Regime as they are big time sponsors of global terror, human rights violators, non-democracy players, and general bad guys. OsamaBL is Saudi.

      After we are done invading and establishing democracy in Iran, and Iraq, and Saudi Arabia--we seriously need to invade Russia for its noncompliance of our world agenda.

      Is everyone ready to sign up?
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    • Thu Apr 10th 17:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Five Ways To Ride Gold to $1500
      oh, and Gordon Brown didn't sell all the British reserve gold, just a big chunk.
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    • Thu Apr 10th 17:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Start of a Run for Gold
      I have a collection of German coins. They're gold and were minted during the hyper-inflationary period of the 20's and 30's, before the currency became confetti.

      The German government tried to convince its citizens NOT to trade its paper currency for gold; the government said that to hold the DeutchMark bills was patriotic.

      Then the bills became worthless. The people that held the gold DM were able to eat, and not live in dire poverty. Those that only held paper suffered much more.

      Many people know this little bit of history, but its quaint and far removed, and felt that it cant happen here. The people I talk to consider this an anomaly, an outlier, and highly improbable.

      A historical reading of paper currencies shows the contrary truth: that almost all currencies ever introduced reverted to their intrinsic value. Confetti.

      The exceptions are the ones extant.

      But the current dollar meltdown has been predicted for decades. It is likely to continue for many years. Soros, Buffett, Rogers, and many people far smarter than I have been explaining the dangers of our bloated nations debt problems for years, and expect this to continue.

      My coin collection, by the way, has appreciated in value. A German DM in 1920 was worth about .25 dollar, if I remember correctly. My 20 DM coins would have been worth $5 dollars then.

      Today they are worth $225 for the 20 DM gold coin. Thats a 45 fold increase, not incredibly impressive, compared to stocks, but nothing to sneeze at.

      More importantly, the paper 20 DM I can buy on e-bay for about $5, before shipping.


      Now, which would you rather own? Gold has never been relatively worthless, it is the one currency that has been used throughout 10,000 years of the history of money (in almost every culture).

      Food is important as is water, and you need them, no doubt. But its a false dichotomy--you don't need to pick one or the other. Food spoils, and is cumbersome to transport. Diamonds might make a good currency too, as would silver. But gold is one form of a store of value. Why not own food, water, silver, gold and diamonds? (Diamonds are the easiest way to smuggle large amounts of wealth with no electronic trace, but they need to be graded and authenticated) .
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