E.D. Hart

The Energy Markets According to Stupak

and while he is at it maybe he can look into massive shorts controling the gold and silver market?

Why Oil and Gold Are Headed Much Higher

The authors comment, citing an analyst that gold would be $2200 inflation adjusted is based on published reported Government inflation data.
Real inflation over the last 25 years is likely 2-3 times higher, based on shadowstats.com, and global monetary growth.

Thus, by my back of the envelope calculations, gold has quite a bit of catch up to do, and in real inflation terms, (not bogus government data) the price should be headed to north of $3500 per ounce.

Moreover, gold is perhaps the single most manipulated commodity by governments worldwide.

It is always in the interests of the gov. to encourage gold leasing, gold paper contracts short sales, and falsifying government reserve holdings.
Considerable evidence has been published to show this is exactly what is happening.

As the world comes to a new era of the unwinding of the great credit bubble of 1983 to 2008--metals and commodities will be primary beneficiaries.

In the short term, (two years) gold and other commodities may fall another 20%--but the bull market is intact for commodities, and gold.

Full disclosure: I don't own a concrete bunker, nor so I stockpile bottled water, ammunition, and old Soldiers of Fortune magazines.

Update: Crude Oil, Priced in Gold

I find this article illogical and inconsistent.

Why must oil fall? There is no economic law that finite commodities in tight supply must revert to the mean. Particularly in a declining currency.

Hence the comparison to gold?

But gold is not a stable currency, and is also effected by some of the same forces driving oil. (inflation hedge).

If anything, as peak oil moves beyond the US fields which are in decline, to the Middle East, the supply/demand will become even tighter. Oil becomes more dear.

Longer term, prices must rise in stable currency. You could have just as easily written that Oil has much more to gain looking out to 2015 as demand marches upward, and production fails to keep up with demand.

The best minds (Maxwell, Goldman Sachs, Wulff) all point in the same direction--higher prices down the road.

But your comparison is not to a stable currency--but Gold--which is interesting, but is widely know to be a manipulated commodity.

You could have compared the price of oil in mangoes and rice and it would give you a different result, but still interesting.

I read the Forbes article:

"It was a perfect storm. The Federal Reserve was cutting interest rates and people were running away from the dollar as it lost value. Hedge funds, pension funds and mutual funds started pumping money into commodities because they were the safest place and the safest of them all was crude oil. There were too many dollars chasing too few physical assets. That's the bottom line."

I would not call it a perfect storm, but the perfect climate. We still have too many dollars chasing too few physical assets. Its the same climate.

The Forbes Article makes the case, in my mind, that we are at the early stages of a bull market in commodities. The dollars fundamanetals have only declined.

There is nothing to break the long term trend of a declining buck. There is nothing, long term, to break the oil supply/demand imbalance. (yes, demand destruction is baked in for short to medium term)

Therefore, oil will continue to be an inflation hedge.

Therefore, oil will continue to see so called "speculation" from those protecting their declining dollars.

Nothing has changed in the long term picture. (albeit credit contraction could drive short to medium term contraction of money supply).

long term, nothing has changed, thats the bottom line.

Should We Listen to Boone Pickens on Oil?

Conflict of interest? Is that what this is about? By that measure, I would have to assume that the president lied about oil in Iraq, or that Enron lied about its profitability....oops.

oh, wait, um...a better response would be that just because someone stands to gain from something, doesn't mean they are lying in promoting it.

What China's Stock Market Implosion Means for Oil

The end of subsidies may be offset by the revaluation in a proportionate amount of the Yuan. Higher Yuan and the prices rising from the end of subsidies dont mean so much.

Oil, Iraq and U.S. Foreign Policy: A Way Forward

We must also terminate the Saudi Regime as they are big time sponsors of global terror, human rights violators, non-democracy players, and general bad guys. OsamaBL is Saudi.

After we are done invading and establishing democracy in Iran, and Iraq, and Saudi Arabia--we seriously need to invade Russia for its noncompliance of our world agenda.

Is everyone ready to sign up?

Oil, Iraq and U.S. Foreign Policy: A Way Forward

Discussions of the war rarely focus on comparing costs with benefits. Since all the reasons for the war turned out to be bogus, the critics have earned a place at the table.

The tragedy is that this WAR is costing us much much more than the $3 trillion we will spend on "stability" in the middle east.

Some of the costs: 1) Lower dollar, 2) Higher taxes for decades to pay the debt, 3) deeper recession, 4) higher oil prices, 5) the US overall is less prosperous than otherwise, 6) the US is less free than otherwise 7) terrorism is undeterred and does not make the US safer 8) loss of more than 4000 American lives 9) erosion of civil liberties in the US, and 10) We ARE STILL DEPENDENT ON OIL with no real energy policy. Is this not naive?

Supporters of the Bush policy claim that detractors are naive, but does anyone really believe that we will establish democracy in Iraq when it is not in their culture, history, or inclination?

I don't think that this war was only about oil, but I do think that the planners were (or non planners) were naive to not take into account the full costs. It was stated that the war would cost $50 billion and that later the war would pay for itself. Is that not naive?

Instead we have the first MBA president ignoring cost benefit analysis, rational decision making, and instead takes America to war on his faith and gut instincts that this is an epic struggle between good and evil. Is this not naive?

I watched Beowulf the other night. Great movie. But it was not real, and I recognized it as a fable. The Bushies have not recognized that their dream turned nightmare in Iraq is a fable, and not real.

I mean to say the war is real, but the epic-struggle rationalization of why we went to war, what the costs would be, how soon we would be home, and how it would be fought, with the US coming out of it the vanquishing hero is not real.

This is the very essence of nievte.

This time its the left and the middle that are steering America back to Real Politick. Love is blind. Patriotism is love. Patriotism is blind. But please wake up to the reality of the nightmare.

An Energy Policy that Makes Cents (and Sense)

The government needs to start a mission on the scale of the Manhattan project to fund energy research, competitive projects that win dollars as they succeed.

Projects that don't pan out would get cut.This needs to be on the order of trillions of dollars of research for a decade or more.

One of the biggest tragedies of the Iraq war is that we will have spent $3 trillion or more by the end of the war and we will have not achieved peace in the middle east, nor democracy, and certainly not a reduction in terrorism, nor secure oils supplies.

What we will have achieved is the removal of a brutal and evil dictator, and it only cost $3 trillion.

That is money that should have been spent on National Energy security/research that would pay real dividends and economic benefits for decades.

It is both comedy and tragedy when Bush says "we need to break our addiction to oil". He has insured that we are addicted to oil by doing nothing.

Peak Oil, Gold and the U.S. Dollar

Inflation is a global phenomenon that is not going away anytime soon.
See also excellent WSJ article on Chinese inflation: online.wsj.com/article...

Big Oil's Big Problem: Time is Running Out

Or how does, "Im just a simple soldier, and I hope a good one" (Indonesian Dictator) resonate with, "Were just an Oil company, meeting Americas energy needs" (XOM).

I'm a die hard capitalist, with libertarian leanings, to a point...but is it off topic to mention that the US Governments preoccupation with the Iraqi war, the Afgahistan war, the War on Terror, and whatever the next war may be...has extracted an incredible opportunity cost on the American taxpayer. Let me explain: we blew a chance to have a Manhattan Project for Energy--because we are spending 1 or 2 or 3 trillion dollars for decades into the future.

We've boxed ourselves in a corner...

The Basis for Long Dated Oil Futures Prices

I agree that it is ludicrous to contend that price is set over the long term by cost of production--if they maintain this for oil, it is also true for natural gas? Natural gas marginal costs of production vary widely, but supply and demand as it varies seasonaly explains 95% of price movement.