Kezorm's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/134716/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/125890-increased-oil-prices-result-in-record-profits-for-petrobras?source=feed#comment-425903 425903
www.bloomberg.com/apps...

]]> Sat, 14 Mar 2009 18:45:11 -0400
www.bloomberg.com/apps...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109675-americans-forget-high-oil-prices-too-quickly?source=feed#comment-325084 325084
When I voted in November, the type of wish you expressed above is what I was voting for. I picked the candidate who I thought most likely to deliver it. Here are some excellent, early signs:


www.reuters.com/articl......

Obama vows strong new financial regulations

Sun Dec 7, 2008 11:06am EST

WASHINGTON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said on Sunday he would put strong new financial regulation at the center of his economic recovery program to force more accountability on the banking industry.

Obama again warned that the U.S. economic crisis, which saw the country lose more than half a million jobs in November alone, would worsen before it gets better.

"As part of our economic recovery package what you will see coming out of my administration, right at the center, is a strong set of financial regulations," Obama said in a taped appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press" television show.

"Banks, ratings agencies, mortgage brokers, a whole bunch of folks (will) start having to be much more accountable and behave much more responsibly.

"We've got to have transparency, openness, fair dealing in our financial markets and that's an area where I think over the last eight years we've fallen short."

end excerpt

How about that last line for a polite understatement? :)

]]> Tue, 09 Dec 2008 20:05:35 -0500
When I voted in November, the type of wish you expressed above is what I was voting for. I picked the candidate who I thought most likely to deliver it. Here are some excellent, early signs:


www.reuters.com/articl......

Obama vows strong new financial regulations

Sun Dec 7, 2008 11:06am EST

WASHINGTON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said on Sunday he would put strong new financial regulation at the center of his economic recovery program to force more accountability on the banking industry.

Obama again warned that the U.S. economic crisis, which saw the country lose more than half a million jobs in November alone, would worsen before it gets better.

"As part of our economic recovery package what you will see coming out of my administration, right at the center, is a strong set of financial regulations," Obama said in a taped appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press" television show.

"Banks, ratings agencies, mortgage brokers, a whole bunch of folks (will) start having to be much more accountable and behave much more responsibly.

"We've got to have transparency, openness, fair dealing in our financial markets and that's an area where I think over the last eight years we've fallen short."

end excerpt

How about that last line for a polite understatement? :)

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103939-revving-up-the-electric-car?source=feed#comment-298427 298427 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 23:21:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-253697 253697
Enough oil and porosity makes the sand optional... but if you provide that "toast", I'll provide the tea. :)

]]> Sat, 13 Sep 2008 22:12:36 -0400
Enough oil and porosity makes the sand optional... but if you provide that "toast", I'll provide the tea. :)

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-251119 251119
No one claimed to calculate reserves based on grav or mag. The link was provided to answer the question: "what is so special about BM-S-22 ?"

Honestly V, do you think that Exxon would not have bothered planning these two holes if they had talked to you first? In your judgement, are they wasting their time? If not, why not? Is it possible that the holes WILL be "market makers" ? And if they meet that standard, will the previous 15 Petrobras finds contribute to the big picture, or will Exxon need redrill them all before you will admit that a hole is a hole and a find is find no matter who drills it?
]]> Wed, 10 Sep 2008 21:33:09 -0400
No one claimed to calculate reserves based on grav or mag. The link was provided to answer the question: "what is so special about BM-S-22 ?"

Honestly V, do you think that Exxon would not have bothered planning these two holes if they had talked to you first? In your judgement, are they wasting their time? If not, why not? Is it possible that the holes WILL be "market makers" ? And if they meet that standard, will the previous 15 Petrobras finds contribute to the big picture, or will Exxon need redrill them all before you will admit that a hole is a hole and a find is find no matter who drills it?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-251023 251023 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:42:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-250716 250716 www.searchanddiscovery...

Read it carefully as it answers your questions about why that block might be something special. Note that this was published before exploratory drilling had penetrated the salt layer in adjacent areas, finding major hydrocarbon reservoirs like Tupi. ]]> Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:04:59 -0400 www.searchanddiscovery...

Read it carefully as it answers your questions about why that block might be something special. Note that this was published before exploratory drilling had penetrated the salt layer in adjacent areas, finding major hydrocarbon reservoirs like Tupi. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-250557 250557 You are as economical with impartiality as you claim Estrella is with truth. Numerous on-line oil industry publications have reported the reserve estimates for Tupi. Are they all idiots? Are you the only one who sees through a facade? Is Brazil wasting it's money contracting for all those drilling rigs and is Exxon (the grown-ups remember...) wasting their money drilling at BM-S-22? ]]> Wed, 10 Sep 2008 12:04:04 -0400 You are as economical with impartiality as you claim Estrella is with truth. Numerous on-line oil industry publications have reported the reserve estimates for Tupi. Are they all idiots? Are you the only one who sees through a facade? Is Brazil wasting it's money contracting for all those drilling rigs and is Exxon (the grown-ups remember...) wasting their money drilling at BM-S-22? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-249946 249946 www.offshore-mag.com/d.../

Note that the article has 6 web pages. The comment about 15 wells drilled and 15 finding hydrocarbons is on the bottom of the first page.

excerpt:

Besides affirming that there is no technical barrier to explore under the salt layer, Guilherme Estrella, Petrobras’ E&P director, argues that there must be change in the sector’s regulations because the pre-salt exploration can be seen as low risk exploration activity. According to Petrobras, the discovery of the blockbuster natural gas and condensate field in the Jupiter area in the Santos basin reinforces the notion that there is practically no exploratory risk in the pre-salt layer.

“Of the 15 wells we drilled during the last two years in the pre-salt, each one of them struck oil or gas. In fact, we have been drilling in the pre-salt area since we started drilling in Campos basin,” he says. “All of the pre-salt blocks achieved exploratory success, something that confirms the region’s high prospectivity.”

Estrella, a geologist, is former head of Cenpes, Petrobras’ R&D center.

end of excerpt.

I'd still like an answer from you on why it will be a "market maker" if Exxon announces a find after all these other finds made by PBR ? Why does it only count if Exxon makes a find? What does it take to be a "grown up"? What qualifies you to make such a comment?


]]> Tue, 09 Sep 2008 23:33:15 -0400 www.offshore-mag.com/d.../

Note that the article has 6 web pages. The comment about 15 wells drilled and 15 finding hydrocarbons is on the bottom of the first page.

excerpt:

Besides affirming that there is no technical barrier to explore under the salt layer, Guilherme Estrella, Petrobras’ E&P director, argues that there must be change in the sector’s regulations because the pre-salt exploration can be seen as low risk exploration activity. According to Petrobras, the discovery of the blockbuster natural gas and condensate field in the Jupiter area in the Santos basin reinforces the notion that there is practically no exploratory risk in the pre-salt layer.

“Of the 15 wells we drilled during the last two years in the pre-salt, each one of them struck oil or gas. In fact, we have been drilling in the pre-salt area since we started drilling in Campos basin,” he says. “All of the pre-salt blocks achieved exploratory success, something that confirms the region’s high prospectivity.”

Estrella, a geologist, is former head of Cenpes, Petrobras’ R&D center.

end of excerpt.

I'd still like an answer from you on why it will be a "market maker" if Exxon announces a find after all these other finds made by PBR ? Why does it only count if Exxon makes a find? What does it take to be a "grown up"? What qualifies you to make such a comment?


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-248918 248918


]]> Mon, 08 Sep 2008 22:43:26 -0400


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89652-crude-oil-how-far-will-it-fall?source=feed#comment-225646 225646 ]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 22:49:58 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87263-why-i-m-not-buying-oil-s-recent-correction?source=feed#comment-216172 216172
Russia just increased export tariffs on crude to $70/bbl. Given the enormous output of Russian crude, this number has got to be part of the equation for calculating a new price floor. After all, $70 is just the tariff.... It does not include lifting, profit, or shipping.

Saudi Arabia and Libya have threatened or promised to slash production if oil fell too far, too fast. Although I do not recall a "strike price" being stated, I'd guess they would defend at $100/bbl or so.

The USA crude oil demand experiences very consistent seasonal variations and we are at the second of two predictable summer minima. From the fourth week of July, till the last week of September, demand traditionally builds. Expect this effect to exert itself, even if other political factors overlap.

Abiotic Oil? It is fascinating that the famous Brazilian prospect called Sugarloaf or Carioca will be the subject of exploratory drilling by Seadrill's West Polaris, on behalf of XOM, HES and PBR over the next year. The particular block being drilled is BM-S-22. The basement structure which is responsible from producing this particular hydrocarbon target is a failed spreading center related to earlier rifting tween SA and Africa. Two miles of salts overlie the old rifting center. See this site: www.searchanddiscovery...
Combine this especially attractive prospect with the recent news about abiotic hydrocarbons found at the Lost City Hydrothermal field, and one is forced to wonder if the massive Brazilian sub-salt reservoirs might be created by inorganic reactions between water and ultra-mafic rocks.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 00:36:35 -0400
Russia just increased export tariffs on crude to $70/bbl. Given the enormous output of Russian crude, this number has got to be part of the equation for calculating a new price floor. After all, $70 is just the tariff.... It does not include lifting, profit, or shipping.

Saudi Arabia and Libya have threatened or promised to slash production if oil fell too far, too fast. Although I do not recall a "strike price" being stated, I'd guess they would defend at $100/bbl or so.

The USA crude oil demand experiences very consistent seasonal variations and we are at the second of two predictable summer minima. From the fourth week of July, till the last week of September, demand traditionally builds. Expect this effect to exert itself, even if other political factors overlap.

Abiotic Oil? It is fascinating that the famous Brazilian prospect called Sugarloaf or Carioca will be the subject of exploratory drilling by Seadrill's West Polaris, on behalf of XOM, HES and PBR over the next year. The particular block being drilled is BM-S-22. The basement structure which is responsible from producing this particular hydrocarbon target is a failed spreading center related to earlier rifting tween SA and Africa. Two miles of salts overlie the old rifting center. See this site: www.searchanddiscovery...
Combine this especially attractive prospect with the recent news about abiotic hydrocarbons found at the Lost City Hydrothermal field, and one is forced to wonder if the massive Brazilian sub-salt reservoirs might be created by inorganic reactions between water and ultra-mafic rocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87289-insiders-preparing-for-major-drop-in-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-216161 216161 Mon, 28 Jul 2008 00:00:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86732-oil-majors-vs-drillers-the-battle-for-profits?source=feed#comment-213963 213963 Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:11:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84966-gas-lines-coming-this-fall?source=feed#comment-206582 206582 www.cumminswestport.co...
]]> Wed, 16 Jul 2008 00:40:09 -0400 www.cumminswestport.co...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81394-speculation-and-the-price-of-oil?source=feed#comment-185820 185820
"Speaking as a teacher of economics and finance, I would advise my political masters to always assume that they (the suppliers of crude in this case) do have this intention (maximize profit) until they obtain irrefutable proof that such is not the case, because the kind of economics that I study and teach leads me to insist that, theoretically, adjusting supply in such a manner as to keep the dollars rolling in makes all the sense in the world."

So, if the Saudi's do release an extra 500,000 bbl's/day, might that inspire other suppliers to restrict their outputs by comparable amounts?]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 09:33:40 -0400
"Speaking as a teacher of economics and finance, I would advise my political masters to always assume that they (the suppliers of crude in this case) do have this intention (maximize profit) until they obtain irrefutable proof that such is not the case, because the kind of economics that I study and teach leads me to insist that, theoretically, adjusting supply in such a manner as to keep the dollars rolling in makes all the sense in the world."

So, if the Saudi's do release an extra 500,000 bbl's/day, might that inspire other suppliers to restrict their outputs by comparable amounts?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80582-transocean-cheap-stock-worth-a-look?source=feed#comment-183838 183838
The Brazilians ARE finding enormous quantities of oil and gas at depths of 35000 or more feet.

And, yes, the technologies are, or will be available to enable production from these depths. It might not be as cheap to produce as oil used to be, but it will be there through the transition to alternative supplies of energy.

]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 23:50:20 -0400
The Brazilians ARE finding enormous quantities of oil and gas at depths of 35000 or more feet.

And, yes, the technologies are, or will be available to enable production from these depths. It might not be as cheap to produce as oil used to be, but it will be there through the transition to alternative supplies of energy.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80760-transocean-drilling-for-profits?source=feed#comment-183835 183835
One thing you did not mention, which I think would have been worthy of mention, is the recent depth record in Qatar - something like 40,000 feet of reach drilled without incident in 36 days! What an advertisement for "getting-what-you-pay-... !

To Startouch, I would hope that crews are routinely evacuated before killer storms arrive. If so, the loss of one rig would be bad for any company, but the vast size of Transocean would hopefully allow them to weather such a loss somewhat better than their smaller competitors.

]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 23:39:26 -0400
One thing you did not mention, which I think would have been worthy of mention, is the recent depth record in Qatar - something like 40,000 feet of reach drilled without incident in 36 days! What an advertisement for "getting-what-you-pay-... !

To Startouch, I would hope that crews are routinely evacuated before killer storms arrive. If so, the loss of one rig would be bad for any company, but the vast size of Transocean would hopefully allow them to weather such a loss somewhat better than their smaller competitors.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-183007 183007 Lifting costs for oil at Tupi. Around $8 per barrel.

www.reuters.com/articl...

Compare the above projections to Von Altendorf:

"Amortizing exploration and infrastructure, Tupi-Carioca lifting costs may be as little as $40/barrel if they produce 5+ billion barrels, or as high as $80/barrel if reservoirs are compartmentalized."

I concur with Anaconda that this was a hit piece. There are links to this article all over the internet and they give an impression of Petrobras that is utterly false. ]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 00:56:04 -0400 Lifting costs for oil at Tupi. Around $8 per barrel.

www.reuters.com/articl...

Compare the above projections to Von Altendorf:

"Amortizing exploration and infrastructure, Tupi-Carioca lifting costs may be as little as $40/barrel if they produce 5+ billion barrels, or as high as $80/barrel if reservoirs are compartmentalized."

I concur with Anaconda that this was a hit piece. There are links to this article all over the internet and they give an impression of Petrobras that is utterly false. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80261-investing-into-the-end-of-the-hydrocarbon-age?source=feed#comment-180009 180009
I have read alot about abiotic oil but will not digress. I want to make one point in defense of biotic formation for that sub-salt oil. What must have happened to deposit the salt? Yes, sea-water was getting concentrated in a closed basin where evaporation exceeded inflow. What might have been the condition of this closed sea just before the deposition of the salt? That's right, warm, stagnant water. Probably with so little circulation that it was anoxic at depth. So, any algae that grew at the surface; died, and got buried without decaying. Cover this stuff with salt, cook at 300F, and those hydrocarbons which may form, cannot easily escape because of the mile of salt forming above.

I don't know whether the oil is biotic or abiotic, but the geological context of the Brazilian discoveries makes biotic formation at least plausible. ]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 21:16:52 -0400
I have read alot about abiotic oil but will not digress. I want to make one point in defense of biotic formation for that sub-salt oil. What must have happened to deposit the salt? Yes, sea-water was getting concentrated in a closed basin where evaporation exceeded inflow. What might have been the condition of this closed sea just before the deposition of the salt? That's right, warm, stagnant water. Probably with so little circulation that it was anoxic at depth. So, any algae that grew at the surface; died, and got buried without decaying. Cover this stuff with salt, cook at 300F, and those hydrocarbons which may form, cannot easily escape because of the mile of salt forming above.

I don't know whether the oil is biotic or abiotic, but the geological context of the Brazilian discoveries makes biotic formation at least plausible. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-178314 178314
www.searchanddiscovery...

Since this was written at least 8, possibly 11 or even 15 holes (depending on the vintage of the article) have been drilled through the deep salt and producible hydrocarbons were found every time. Of the several recent announcements of oil, they have found oil with similar viscosity leading some to suspect potential linkage between reservoirs or even one extremely large reservoir. Given the seismic images in the articles, it seems there may indeed be giant systems spanning tens of miles.

The author may be confused or befuddled about some things. Here are some examples:

Altendorf: "Tupi and Carioca..... It is inconceivable that large scale production development can be achieved in less than 10 years."

OK. So they might not have a hundred wells producing for ten years. So what. Investor's seek growth and opportunity. But this comment should be compared to Brazil's previous accomplishments at disproving the critics. Look at the 4th paragraph of this article recalling the development of the Campos basin:

www.rigzone.com/news/a...

excerpt:
"Pressured by high oil import costs and by the urgent need to trim Brazilian dependence on imported oil, it was at this basin (Campos) that Petrobras created one of the most advanced production development concepts in the world, one that would serve as a model for the industry. Seeking to slash the delay between discovery and production, company technicians opted to install the first Anticipated Production System (APS) on a floating platform in Enchova. The conventional offshore production systems adopted the world over had a very long maturation time, ranging from four to six years. With the APS, the delay between discovery and early production was slashed to a mere four months, leading to great agility, operating flexibility and huge savings in investments. This allowed the company to kick production off while definitive fixed platforms, which would be installed later on, were under construction."

Fred's comment: One can assume that PBR engineers are even more capable, confident and experienced today.

Altendorf: "Tupi and Carioca are geologically unrelated to oil-producing Campos reservoirs in a younger formation...."

Santos Basin, Campos Basin. Two different structures. Are you correcting your own misperception here? Or are you implying some dishonesty or exageration on the part of PBR?

www.rigzone.com/news/i...

Altendorf: "...and in contrast they are primarily gas plays because of burial age and maturation in a high temperature-high pressure environment."

PBR found oil. They intend to produce - oil. And where they found mostly gas, as at Jupiter, they stated that. You seem to think that the theory you were taught once upon a time is more important than what they are actually finding. By implying they are reporting oil when they only, actually found gas...is to basically impugn the honesty of PBR and every journalist who has reported on the subject. Is everyone missing something?

But the maturation issue is important. Everyone schooled in petroleum geology decades ago was taught about oil depth and temperature windows, below which or beyond which it would be silly to look because the oil would presumably... have been cooked to gas. But oil is where you find it and of late, it is being found at depths where they used to say it could not be. Arthur Eddington once said that "no fact should be accepted until confirmed by theory." I guess you are in Arthur's camp in this regard. But dozens of articles are reporting the API degrees (viscosity) of the oil being found and that is a rather brazen lie if all they are finding is natural gas.

Temperature? 400 degrees does not melt steel, and PBR is researching products made by companies like Aspen Aerogel who make efficient insulation systems for pipes that will keep the oil warm till it gets to the surface - which is an important point - you want it to stay warm until you get it to your separator. That way paraffins stay dissolved, and the lower viscosity encourages flow.

Here are articles that seem more careful or honest:

www.aapg.org/explorer/...

www.reuters.com/articl...

In summary, the Brazilian ANP has removed 41 blocks from auction surrounding the BM-S-8,9,21 and 22 area. And they have gone on a shopping spree for drilling rigs. In order for your criticisms to be taken seriously requires us to believe that this is all merely a show, and that the recent discoveries do not actually make PBR a better investment than another company which does not even claim to be making such discoveries. But even that does not make sense for XOM will be drilling at BM-S-22 this year, and are we to believe that they would change their plans about that if only they had your insights on the matter?]]> Mon, 02 Jun 2008 23:18:53 -0400
www.searchanddiscovery...

Since this was written at least 8, possibly 11 or even 15 holes (depending on the vintage of the article) have been drilled through the deep salt and producible hydrocarbons were found every time. Of the several recent announcements of oil, they have found oil with similar viscosity leading some to suspect potential linkage between reservoirs or even one extremely large reservoir. Given the seismic images in the articles, it seems there may indeed be giant systems spanning tens of miles.

The author may be confused or befuddled about some things. Here are some examples:

Altendorf: "Tupi and Carioca..... It is inconceivable that large scale production development can be achieved in less than 10 years."

OK. So they might not have a hundred wells producing for ten years. So what. Investor's seek growth and opportunity. But this comment should be compared to Brazil's previous accomplishments at disproving the critics. Look at the 4th paragraph of this article recalling the development of the Campos basin:

www.rigzone.com/news/a...

excerpt:
"Pressured by high oil import costs and by the urgent need to trim Brazilian dependence on imported oil, it was at this basin (Campos) that Petrobras created one of the most advanced production development concepts in the world, one that would serve as a model for the industry. Seeking to slash the delay between discovery and production, company technicians opted to install the first Anticipated Production System (APS) on a floating platform in Enchova. The conventional offshore production systems adopted the world over had a very long maturation time, ranging from four to six years. With the APS, the delay between discovery and early production was slashed to a mere four months, leading to great agility, operating flexibility and huge savings in investments. This allowed the company to kick production off while definitive fixed platforms, which would be installed later on, were under construction."

Fred's comment: One can assume that PBR engineers are even more capable, confident and experienced today.

Altendorf: "Tupi and Carioca are geologically unrelated to oil-producing Campos reservoirs in a younger formation...."

Santos Basin, Campos Basin. Two different structures. Are you correcting your own misperception here? Or are you implying some dishonesty or exageration on the part of PBR?

www.rigzone.com/news/i...

Altendorf: "...and in contrast they are primarily gas plays because of burial age and maturation in a high temperature-high pressure environment."

PBR found oil. They intend to produce - oil. And where they found mostly gas, as at Jupiter, they stated that. You seem to think that the theory you were taught once upon a time is more important than what they are actually finding. By implying they are reporting oil when they only, actually found gas...is to basically impugn the honesty of PBR and every journalist who has reported on the subject. Is everyone missing something?

But the maturation issue is important. Everyone schooled in petroleum geology decades ago was taught about oil depth and temperature windows, below which or beyond which it would be silly to look because the oil would presumably... have been cooked to gas. But oil is where you find it and of late, it is being found at depths where they used to say it could not be. Arthur Eddington once said that "no fact should be accepted until confirmed by theory." I guess you are in Arthur's camp in this regard. But dozens of articles are reporting the API degrees (viscosity) of the oil being found and that is a rather brazen lie if all they are finding is natural gas.

Temperature? 400 degrees does not melt steel, and PBR is researching products made by companies like Aspen Aerogel who make efficient insulation systems for pipes that will keep the oil warm till it gets to the surface - which is an important point - you want it to stay warm until you get it to your separator. That way paraffins stay dissolved, and the lower viscosity encourages flow.

Here are articles that seem more careful or honest:

www.aapg.org/explorer/...

www.reuters.com/articl...

In summary, the Brazilian ANP has removed 41 blocks from auction surrounding the BM-S-8,9,21 and 22 area. And they have gone on a shopping spree for drilling rigs. In order for your criticisms to be taken seriously requires us to believe that this is all merely a show, and that the recent discoveries do not actually make PBR a better investment than another company which does not even claim to be making such discoveries. But even that does not make sense for XOM will be drilling at BM-S-22 this year, and are we to believe that they would change their plans about that if only they had your insights on the matter?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79506-in-light-of-peak-oil-financial-diversification-is-a-bad-idea?source=feed#comment-177434 177434
]]> Sat, 31 May 2008 23:08:56 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79202-oil-gas-exploration-spdr-charts-a-shooting-star?source=feed#comment-177419 177419
Another question. Suppose the world is making a transition from undervaluing oil, in times of surplus production to one where it's importance and finite supply are finally recognized. What might the shape of that curve be during the transition? Even if we can drill and generally innovate our way out of the scarcity crisis, the curve during that crisis might look very much like the present curve.]]> Sat, 31 May 2008 21:31:02 -0400
Another question. Suppose the world is making a transition from undervaluing oil, in times of surplus production to one where it's importance and finite supply are finally recognized. What might the shape of that curve be during the transition? Even if we can drill and generally innovate our way out of the scarcity crisis, the curve during that crisis might look very much like the present curve.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78743-the-case-for-not-drilling-anwr?source=feed#comment-174253 174253 To those who reacted negatively to Chad's suggestion, what would you have us do? Release all such known reserves to maintain cheap oil right up until there is zero surplus production, and then expect decades of technological innovation and adaptation to happen overnight - and in the midst of a probable worldwide recession, if not also in the midst of world resource wars?
Chad is right. Cheap oil will prevent the change that needs to happen, from happening until it would be too late for changes to avert disaster.]]> Mon, 26 May 2008 23:37:02 -0400 To those who reacted negatively to Chad's suggestion, what would you have us do? Release all such known reserves to maintain cheap oil right up until there is zero surplus production, and then expect decades of technological innovation and adaptation to happen overnight - and in the midst of a probable worldwide recession, if not also in the midst of world resource wars?
Chad is right. Cheap oil will prevent the change that needs to happen, from happening until it would be too late for changes to avert disaster.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77412-odds-favor-short-term-slip-in-crude-prices?source=feed#comment-168815 168815 Fri, 16 May 2008 11:25:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77511-petrobras-is-hoarding-the-world-s-deep-sea-drillers?source=feed#comment-168797 168797 Fri, 16 May 2008 11:13:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76621-an-energy-policy-that-makes-sense-revisited?source=feed#comment-165645 165645
See this rather unusual discussion on youtube:

www.youtube.com/watch?...

I would be very interested in hearing what everyone thinks of Mr. Williams report.]]> Sun, 11 May 2008 00:16:10 -0400
See this rather unusual discussion on youtube:

www.youtube.com/watch?...

I would be very interested in hearing what everyone thinks of Mr. Williams report.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76539-a-look-at-earnings-from-transocean-and-devon?source=feed#comment-165639 165639
I believe that the news below helps to explain why RIG's share price did not surge upwards after the excellent earnings news. First I'll paste in the articles that carried the important news details:

**********************...
Jefferies rumor yesterday that "Petrobras is likely to announce letters of intent (LOI) to award long-term contracts for as many as 17 new-build ultra-deepwater rigs."

online.barrons.com/art...

This is confirmed by Bloomberg.

"Brazil is preparing to tap the biggest crude-oil discovery in the Western Hemisphere in three decades, which lies just off its Atlantic coast. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state oil company, is in talks with Houston-based Transocean Inc. to extend offshore drilling contracts."

bloomberg.com/apps/new......
**********************...

1.) RIG is apparently NOT getting these contracts for new builds.

2.) RIG IS getting contract extensions for rigs already operating there.

The Barron's article mentioned that smaller firms were getting contracts for the new builds which amounted to something around 2/3rds the dayrates that RIG gets for their state-of-art rigs.

This implies that Transocean is not getting any of the 17 contracts for new-builds. And this is probably why RIG's share price dropped a bit in the last couple days.

Does this mean that Transocean is necessarily going to miss the Brazilian sub-salt bonanza? No. Why not? Two main reasons.

It has been said that it will take 50 rig-years to fully develop the
5-8 billion barrel Tupi field. If "Sugarloaf" proves itself, and if
one scales the development effort upwards to accomodate the larger
field area, then it may require 400 rig-years of work to fully develop
Sugarloaf. (Just Sugarloaf... which is than 10% of the area with hydrocarbon potential.)

seekingalpha.com/artic...

So, 17 drilling rigs will not likely be able to satisfy the demand.

Furthermore, PBR is NOT the only company that will be needing, and contracting for drilling rigs to explore and develop the Brazilian sub-salt. HES, XOM, GALP and numerous others will also be making their own arrangements for drill ships to operate within other Brazilian claim blocks.

And Brazil is not the only country with fantastic sub-salt potential. West Africa has the same structures formed at the same time. The GOM, the abyssal GOM, the Scotian shelf and other places far too numerous to mention - ALL have potentially analogous salt formations in need of exploration. If 2008 generates more exciting news from Brazil, it will likely trigger a burst of interest in exploring analogous formations no matter where they are. Any country with off-shore petroleum potential that does not enjoy paying high prices to import crude... will likely, if they have not already, ante up and get in the game.










]]> Sat, 10 May 2008 23:20:41 -0400
I believe that the news below helps to explain why RIG's share price did not surge upwards after the excellent earnings news. First I'll paste in the articles that carried the important news details:

**********************...
Jefferies rumor yesterday that "Petrobras is likely to announce letters of intent (LOI) to award long-term contracts for as many as 17 new-build ultra-deepwater rigs."

online.barrons.com/art...

This is confirmed by Bloomberg.

"Brazil is preparing to tap the biggest crude-oil discovery in the Western Hemisphere in three decades, which lies just off its Atlantic coast. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state oil company, is in talks with Houston-based Transocean Inc. to extend offshore drilling contracts."

bloomberg.com/apps/new......
**********************...

1.) RIG is apparently NOT getting these contracts for new builds.

2.) RIG IS getting contract extensions for rigs already operating there.

The Barron's article mentioned that smaller firms were getting contracts for the new builds which amounted to something around 2/3rds the dayrates that RIG gets for their state-of-art rigs.

This implies that Transocean is not getting any of the 17 contracts for new-builds. And this is probably why RIG's share price dropped a bit in the last couple days.

Does this mean that Transocean is necessarily going to miss the Brazilian sub-salt bonanza? No. Why not? Two main reasons.

It has been said that it will take 50 rig-years to fully develop the
5-8 billion barrel Tupi field. If "Sugarloaf" proves itself, and if
one scales the development effort upwards to accomodate the larger
field area, then it may require 400 rig-years of work to fully develop
Sugarloaf. (Just Sugarloaf... which is than 10% of the area with hydrocarbon potential.)

seekingalpha.com/artic...

So, 17 drilling rigs will not likely be able to satisfy the demand.

Furthermore, PBR is NOT the only company that will be needing, and contracting for drilling rigs to explore and develop the Brazilian sub-salt. HES, XOM, GALP and numerous others will also be making their own arrangements for drill ships to operate within other Brazilian claim blocks.

And Brazil is not the only country with fantastic sub-salt potential. West Africa has the same structures formed at the same time. The GOM, the abyssal GOM, the Scotian shelf and other places far too numerous to mention - ALL have potentially analogous salt formations in need of exploration. If 2008 generates more exciting news from Brazil, it will likely trigger a burst of interest in exploring analogous formations no matter where they are. Any country with off-shore petroleum potential that does not enjoy paying high prices to import crude... will likely, if they have not already, ante up and get in the game.










]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75461-why-exxon-still-denies-peak-oil?source=feed#comment-165280 165280
Your explanation of why oil companies are buying back there own stock was superb!

Thanks]]> Fri, 09 May 2008 22:24:54 -0400
Your explanation of why oil companies are buying back there own stock was superb!

Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76621-an-energy-policy-that-makes-sense-revisited?source=feed#comment-165275 165275
"yet there are nearly no engineers in leadership."

Yes, I know you said "nearly no engineers", but I thought I'd paste this link anyway:

bartlett.house.gov/Bio.../

Congressman Bartlett has been beating the drum about energy scarcity issues for a long time. I've seen him on C-Span and he is as knowledgeable as anyone about Peak Oil. Here is a link to his page on energy policy. (Note the Hirsch report, which is must reading.)

bartlett.house.gov/Iss...

Maryland should be very proud to be represented by someone with such excellent and varied credentials. ]]> Fri, 09 May 2008 22:05:19 -0400
"yet there are nearly no engineers in leadership."

Yes, I know you said "nearly no engineers", but I thought I'd paste this link anyway:

bartlett.house.gov/Bio.../

Congressman Bartlett has been beating the drum about energy scarcity issues for a long time. I've seen him on C-Span and he is as knowledgeable as anyone about Peak Oil. Here is a link to his page on energy policy. (Note the Hirsch report, which is must reading.)

bartlett.house.gov/Iss...

Maryland should be very proud to be represented by someone with such excellent and varied credentials. ]]>