brianoh's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/134720/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/129391-obama-s-big-win-at-g20-europeans-lose-control-of-imf?source=feed#comment-451576 451576 Sat, 04 Apr 2009 08:58:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121726-recent-policy-decisions-and-a-greater-depression?source=feed#comment-398137 398137
The analogy is similar with the economy. The overall strategy is wrong (Keynesian), however some of the results may still be favorable on a short-term basis. Quite simply, we have the wrong people running the economy – Cheap-Credit Academics.

Greenspan is a perfect example of this. In his recent speech to the NY Economics Club he was basically saying (in part) that we need high stock prices so that we can get credit creation. This I presume explains his moves to prop-up the Dow bubble in 2001 and created the problem that brought us here. Even I can see that it is ludicrous to pump-up the Dow in order to provide the mechanism for credit. The Dow has to earn the level that it has, not be pushed there by Greenspan. We now have a Greenspan protégé as Treasury Secretary.

There are many negative consequences from this “Keynesianism God Mad”. One of the main problems is an imbalance in the economy that was caused by fictitious wealth. There are many, many businesses that need to down-size, and this will not happen overnight.

While the US has the wrong people charting the course, the long-term results will be negative. To generalize the problem – the problems caused by cheap credit cannot be solved by more of the same. The economy requires restructuring and that will not happen until the NORMAL supply-demand dynamics are allowed to play-out. Prop-ups, bailouts, mailouts, rate drops, stimulant measures, and deficit spending all create a wrong-sized economy that is unsustainable long term. In addition, the losses in the financial system that resulted from the misguided policies need to be written off, not propped-up.

It is extremely difficult to make economic decisions knowing that the policymakers are manipulating the free market at unprecedented levels. Time to let the chips lie where they fall and let industries survive or fail as a result of their own decisions.]]> Sat, 21 Feb 2009 20:14:58 -0500
The analogy is similar with the economy. The overall strategy is wrong (Keynesian), however some of the results may still be favorable on a short-term basis. Quite simply, we have the wrong people running the economy – Cheap-Credit Academics.

Greenspan is a perfect example of this. In his recent speech to the NY Economics Club he was basically saying (in part) that we need high stock prices so that we can get credit creation. This I presume explains his moves to prop-up the Dow bubble in 2001 and created the problem that brought us here. Even I can see that it is ludicrous to pump-up the Dow in order to provide the mechanism for credit. The Dow has to earn the level that it has, not be pushed there by Greenspan. We now have a Greenspan protégé as Treasury Secretary.

There are many negative consequences from this “Keynesianism God Mad”. One of the main problems is an imbalance in the economy that was caused by fictitious wealth. There are many, many businesses that need to down-size, and this will not happen overnight.

While the US has the wrong people charting the course, the long-term results will be negative. To generalize the problem – the problems caused by cheap credit cannot be solved by more of the same. The economy requires restructuring and that will not happen until the NORMAL supply-demand dynamics are allowed to play-out. Prop-ups, bailouts, mailouts, rate drops, stimulant measures, and deficit spending all create a wrong-sized economy that is unsustainable long term. In addition, the losses in the financial system that resulted from the misguided policies need to be written off, not propped-up.

It is extremely difficult to make economic decisions knowing that the policymakers are manipulating the free market at unprecedented levels. Time to let the chips lie where they fall and let industries survive or fail as a result of their own decisions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109627-u-s-dollar-the-next-bubble-to-pop?source=feed#comment-324079 324079
I am surprised that you don't see why investors don't buy assets. Obviously they don't trust the value of those assets. What assets would you suggest they buy?

The US strategy for the past decade has been to inflate asset prices to absorb foreign investment and fund the US economy. The bursting of the housing bubble saw the end of that upward spiral. The policy is obviously highly flawed, because: a) it cannot continue forever, and b) it economically disenfranchises future generations.

Nevertheless, I am inclined to think in the short term that "you can't fight the Fed". Or, in other words, the Fed will destroy the US economy for short-term gain.]]> Mon, 08 Dec 2008 15:34:58 -0500
I am surprised that you don't see why investors don't buy assets. Obviously they don't trust the value of those assets. What assets would you suggest they buy?

The US strategy for the past decade has been to inflate asset prices to absorb foreign investment and fund the US economy. The bursting of the housing bubble saw the end of that upward spiral. The policy is obviously highly flawed, because: a) it cannot continue forever, and b) it economically disenfranchises future generations.

Nevertheless, I am inclined to think in the short term that "you can't fight the Fed". Or, in other words, the Fed will destroy the US economy for short-term gain.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109449-s-p-set-for-50-gains-not-so-fast-ubs?source=feed#comment-322615 322615 Sat, 06 Dec 2008 19:57:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108284-saab-may-be-gm-s-best-hope-for-the-future?source=feed#comment-316421 316421 Thu, 27 Nov 2008 19:28:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99674-coming-soon-the-600-trillion-derivatives-emergency-meeting?source=feed#comment-285078 285078 Sat, 18 Oct 2008 03:31:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100452-the-u-s-economy-is-still-on-life-support?source=feed#comment-285075 285075 Sat, 18 Oct 2008 02:57:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94314-the-great-dollar-pump-of-2008-a-doomed-central-bank-intervention?source=feed#comment-248838 248838 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 19:21:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94338-are-we-being-scammed?source=feed#comment-248817 248817 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 18:48:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94240-google-s-checkmate-was-three-moves-ago?source=feed#comment-248020 248020 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 04:32:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93363-bracing-for-another-round-of-credit-related-woes?source=feed#comment-242828 242828 Sun, 31 Aug 2008 18:45:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89394-greenspan-still-almost-childlike-in-his-idealism?source=feed#comment-224450 224450 PER) than they were back then - thanks to the Fed. Basically it is theft - from those with cash and those of future generations. Time to abort this banking culture and get back to an efficient economy. Basic economics tells the story - trade deficit, budget deficit, inflation, unemployment, falling real-incomes, falling profits. As a result, the US is heading to become the next fallen empire.]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 16:57:56 -0400 PER) than they were back then - thanks to the Fed. Basically it is theft - from those with cash and those of future generations. Time to abort this banking culture and get back to an efficient economy. Basic economics tells the story - trade deficit, budget deficit, inflation, unemployment, falling real-incomes, falling profits. As a result, the US is heading to become the next fallen empire.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85864-earnings-season-fundamentally-flawed?source=feed#comment-210205 210205 Sun, 20 Jul 2008 20:49:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79979-are-subsistence-wages-killing-the-us?source=feed#comment-180036 180036 IMO). The US woke the Asian monsters and now they are about to beat the US at it's own game - consumption. US consumption is on the decline because real wages have declined for over 10 years. The housing bubble replaced those wages, and now that has withered. Companies like GM and Ford have the wrong products that consumers can no longer afford. So what we have is an economy that can no longer afford products manufactered by it's own companies and must import products to survive. Standards of living are declining and will continue to do so inversely to standards in China. To aid that process, the US govt sends out tax rebates for people to spend on cheap imports, further helping the foreign economies. Obviously the US has the wrong people in power and making decisions that shape the future of the US over the next century. Look at the start of this century as a guide.]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 22:25:22 -0400 IMO). The US woke the Asian monsters and now they are about to beat the US at it's own game - consumption. US consumption is on the decline because real wages have declined for over 10 years. The housing bubble replaced those wages, and now that has withered. Companies like GM and Ford have the wrong products that consumers can no longer afford. So what we have is an economy that can no longer afford products manufactered by it's own companies and must import products to survive. Standards of living are declining and will continue to do so inversely to standards in China. To aid that process, the US govt sends out tax rebates for people to spend on cheap imports, further helping the foreign economies. Obviously the US has the wrong people in power and making decisions that shape the future of the US over the next century. Look at the start of this century as a guide.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80026-who-benefits-when-the-fed-floods-the-system-with-liquidity?source=feed#comment-179528 179528 The dotnet bubble had already burst at that point and the Nasdaq had lost 50%+. The interest rate cuts were to stop the Dow and S&P falling to realistic levels. These cuts began in 2001. The Dow had risen 10 fold (1000%) in 13 years up to its high of 12000 and was then falling. The liquidity did flow into housing of course and cause the bubble.]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 06:55:17 -0400 The dotnet bubble had already burst at that point and the Nasdaq had lost 50%+. The interest rate cuts were to stop the Dow and S&P falling to realistic levels. These cuts began in 2001. The Dow had risen 10 fold (1000%) in 13 years up to its high of 12000 and was then falling. The liquidity did flow into housing of course and cause the bubble.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79979-are-subsistence-wages-killing-the-us?source=feed#comment-179526 179526 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 06:43:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79976-bernanke-blames-saving-glut-for-housing-bubble?source=feed#comment-179523 179523 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 06:14:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79633-pension-debts-the-next-financial-crisis?source=feed#comment-178221 178221 www.youtube.com/watch?...
It appears that congress does not have the people with the necessary knowledge to interpret the facts and prevent the demise of the USA, in a similar way to the fall of Rome - inability to fund the empire.]]> Mon, 02 Jun 2008 19:02:09 -0400 www.youtube.com/watch?...
It appears that congress does not have the people with the necessary knowledge to interpret the facts and prevent the demise of the USA, in a similar way to the fall of Rome - inability to fund the empire.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/29104-why-you-shouldn-t-own-cameco?source=feed#comment-107420 107420 Uranium prices could still make it a winner, but there are likely
better buys.]]> Sun, 30 Dec 2007 18:33:57 -0500 Uranium prices could still make it a winner, but there are likely
better buys.]]>