Lincolnpark

The Fatal Flaw in Healthcare Reform

In Massachusetts, which has put in place a model of health insurance reform similar to those being discussed in Congress, insurers are not allowed to deny coverage due to pre-existing conditions. To prevent the practice you describe, they can impose up to a twelve-month waiting period before treating a pre-existing condition unless the person was previously insured. Bottom line, if you stay insured, you are covered for anything, even if you change insurers. Your strategy won't work if the national plans being discussed have a similar provision.

The results in Massachusetts have been quite good--4% uninsured rate, very competitive market for policies with a state-managed marketplace to rank and compare them, and it continues to be one of the highest-quality health care regions in the country.

It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like the End of the 2001 Recession

In 2002, the bottom for the market came 10 months after the spike down in claims and 33% lower on the S&P. If 2009 follows this pattern, we will bottom in April 2010 at 556. This is assuming this is the "final" spike, which looks unlikely given how high we are relative to 2002. I am a cautious optimist about the market but your article makes me want to rethink that view!

Southern California Home Prices Rise? Beware of 'Misleading Medians'

Isn't it also likely that the steep declines in the median prices reflected a major drop off in sales of higher priced homes due both to the scarcity and cost of jumbo mortgages and the lack of trade-up buyers? If so, then the downward movement in prices was overstated.

Is This Rally Sustainable?

So you're saying the market might go down or it might go up or it might do both. If you own stocks, sell. If you don't own stocks, buy. Thanks for the advice!

Marc Faber: 'It Will All End in Disaster'

Your article title takes his quote out of context and is unnecessarily alarmist. I think when Marc Faber says that what the government is doing is going to be "rather negative", it is almost like praise from faint damning (apologies to Shakespeare)!

What Inflation Looks Like In Real Life

I have trouble imagining gold coins as the primary money...it's just too inconvenient. How do you give change? And I would think merchants would worry about counterfeit coins. Life without checking accounts, credit cards, etc. is hard to imagine. If hyperinflation comes, I suspect we need some form of paper money but I'm not sure what that would be.

Where Is the Dow Going Now?

Interesting (if scary) article. Maybe the author or someone can help me understand why the Dow average is relevant at all, given that it's composition has changed arbitrarily and frequently and the stocks included in it have little relationship to the stocks that made it up 80 years ago?

The Strange Case of Dr. Kindle and Mr. Bezos

I've had a Kindle since last January and love it. I use it mostly for newspapers, blogs and magazines (I get my Boston Globe wirelessly every morning wherever I am!), but I have also bought quite a few books. The first version has some usability problems which appear to be fixed in the new one and the product has been in short supply with a long wait for delivery all year. If Amazon can get the supply chain filled, I think it is a winner (but likely not an I-Pod class of product due to the decline in literacy relative to music and video).

Options Trader: Christmas Eve Outlook

Nicely put, Phil. I always appreciate your commentary and good sense. I think you have painted the picture accurately and hope you are right. Merry Christmas!

November Housing Starts: All-Time Low

One of the catalysts for the current downturn was the deflation of home prices due to easy credit and overbuilding. Each announcement of lower housing starts and permits is great news, in my opinion, because it helps reduce the inventory of homes (or at least the growth of inventory) bringing us closer to an equilibrium when we can see a firming of home prices. Signs of this will give homeowners more confidence in their net worth and potential homebuyers will stop waiting for prices to drop more. This, combined with lower mortgage rates and tighter lending standards will help usher in a sustainable growth in the economy. I don't know if starts need to go to zero to achieve this or if immigration, other household formation and pent-up demand mean that equilibrium comes at 500,000 starts, 300,000 or maybe we are already there.

Loan Modifications Just a Warm Up for Mortgage Holiday

This sounds like an incredibly bad idea. Of course, the devil's in the details, but a program like this might actually freeze up homebuying because no one would want to give up their "holiday" by selling their house and buying another.

Chart of the Day: Stock Stats During Recessions

It's not clear from this article whether the author thinks 2009 will be better or worse than 2008.

What Plaxico Burress Teaches You about Portfolio Management

Roger, this is a wonderful and timely bit of wisdom! I sent it to both of my college age sons. You could probably expand this idea into a best-sellling investing book.

The Not-So-Smart Smart Money

Don't you think it is about time to cut with the "nObama" smear and give the guy some credit? Unlike the Fox news image, he isn't a latte-sipping elite radical, but an intelligent and tremendously organized man who is making excellent choices for his cabintet. He hasn't delivered yet but you've got to respect his moves so far, which I credit with the sharp rise in the market over the past week.


On Nov 27 06:13 AM chzwiz wrote:

> Not so fast. nObama is staffing moderates like Volker that have experience
> with inflation. The Fed is aware of what may happen if they do not
> mop up the excess. That will start to happen once lending starts
> to get back to normal. The dollar may do quite well in the long term.
> Comments by nObama about cutting programs like farm subsidies to
> Ted Turner point to fiscal responsibility. I am not nearly as pessimistic
> as I was 3 months ago.
>
>
> On Nov 26 09:13 PM SugarDaddy wrote:

The Current Economic Crisis: Hell, Meet Handbasket

A very clear rehash of the crisis, but we've read a lot of those. Casey's recent recommendations have been primarily gold, which has behaved unexpectedly poorly in this recent sell off. I'm with the other commenter asking just what the recommendation is to protect ourselves.