BrotherMaynard

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28 Comments

    • Fri Nov 14th 15:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chesapeake Energy Unlikely To Remain this Cheap
      "They don't show something below $5 because that scenario is just a 1% probability."

      I'm not sure where you derived that probability from...but how soon everyone forgets...the 2001-2002 recession saw sub $2.50
      gas. CHK likely doesn't exist (assuming this capital structure) at $2.50

      tfc-charts.w2d.com/his... (pull use the pull down menu to view year by year)
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 14th 15:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time to Fill Up on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
      why don't we wait until oil hits $30 until we fill up.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 12th 16:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chesapeake Energy Unlikely To Remain this Cheap
      come to think of it....here's the most recent presentation from their site (10/14, analyst day...its a big file, like 12mb just to warn you): media.corporate-ir.net...

      Go to page 3.

      Look at NAV with a $5 nat gas scenario...$29 pershare (a lot higher than today, obviously). However, notice the difference between NAV at $6 and NAV at $5 (or the second derivative of change)...its a 37% drop. The drop is the same from $7 to $6. Yet from $8 to $7 it was only a 25% change...so the lower the prices go, the faster the NAV falls. If nat gas hits $4 will NAV be worth maybe, 50% less? Who knows...they, for whatever reason, won't show us.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 12th 16:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chesapeake Energy Unlikely To Remain this Cheap
      Show me one presentation given by CHK that gives an NAV scenario with nat gas at $4.

      I sure haven't found one...maybe if they illustrated what happens to their model at $4, more people would be buyers.

      there are ebitda covenents on their debt and ebitda is directly tied to nat gas prices...therefore, if nat gas drops below $5, they are really going to have problems with the liability side. this is what the XOM's and CVX's are waiting for...picking through the wreckage of independant E&P's that extrapolated the most fleeting of overly optimistic trends at the very top.
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 7th 16:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Miners: Biggest Drag on My Portfolio, Yet the Biggest Opportunity
      take ag/commodity prices today and whack those in half...then ask your self if you would want to own the equity names. i promise those names you mentioned above would all of the sudden look extremely expensive (NOV might be the exception).
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 7th 16:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Miners: Biggest Drag on My Portfolio, Yet the Biggest Opportunity
      Wow a bunch of commodity/ag plays. lots of imagination there.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 00:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Sold National Oilwell Varco and Bought WMS Industries
      As far as NOV goes, you did exactly the wrong thing. All i can say is, with the vix this high, you should be buying the dips and selling the rips.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 2nd 01:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chesapeake Energy Unlikely To Remain this Cheap
      nat gas at $4mcf renders this company near b/k. keep in mind, the long-term historical average price for nat gas is in fact markedly lower than $4. Nothing has changed with respect to the nat gas demand pic back when nat gas was sub $4 vs. today...we still can't export it...yet we increased drilling to levels not seen since the 80's.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 20th 15:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Getting Clobbered: Why I Changed My Investment Rules
      "check insider trading"

      following insiders never helps you to see the bullet that actually kills the company...e.g. Aubrey McClendon was recently blown out of his ownership stake in CHK. I'm not saying insider buying is bad, just make sure you know management well enough to make sure that they're not trying to be icarus (Al Lord from SLM corp was another headline grabber last year when the SLM buyout deal tanked...he then proceeded to drop f-bombs on the ensuing conference cal)l.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 20th 11:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Getting Clobbered: Why I Changed My Investment Rules
      First of all...you're reacting...you don't have a real game plan. That's fatal in a normal environment much less in an environment that shows the vix at 63. If you're an amateur, don't short-term trade in this environment (i.e. vix above 60-70)...you will continue to get your head handed to you. Buy cheap etfs and forget about them.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 10th 16:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Roger Wiegand: Oil to Reach New Highs by Year-End
      he's a real-estate developer but he's trading commodities!?!? enough said.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 6th 21:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Four Energy Bargains
      p/e's are cheap until the e gets cut to smitherines.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 12th 16:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Natural Gas and Oil Prices Are Linked
      "Why isn't the relinkage already happening"

      Probably because everyone assumes oil is going to $70.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 4th 16:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble
      "While it's pretty much unfathomable and also unlikely" might be more dangerous than "this time its different."
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 4th 16:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Natural Gas/Oil Price Ratio Predicts Price Hikes
      There isn't enough switching capacity for that "rule" to be enforeced. The ratio means nothing.

      Stop misleading readers.

      Its perfectly conceivable if nat gas keeps tanking b/c of huge builds. Its not like we can export the stuff.
      View article »
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