BrotherMaynard

Congressional Commodity Market Manipulation Rule Is a Monument to Cluelessness

craig...I'm all for a good spec debate, but your arguments always come across as being driven by some sort of dogmatic belief. its curious because its not the noblest of endevors. I mean, why bother speaking so passionately (dropping regular ad hominems) against paper impacts on commodity markets, when if you end up being wrong, it would mean widespread devastation, not just your academic stance, but also on billions of actual human beings. A person would need some hard cash to take that sort of risk (or be completely insane).

according to your bio, you have "consulted widely" yet your experience appears to go no further than academia...leading to my question: are you in any way shape or form given remuneration by exchanges and/or parties that benefit from your seemingly one-sided views?

after all, you're no thought-leader...but maybe you can make a buck acting like one? What say you?

Rising Commodities Mean No Deflation

Debt defaults (in part due to declining asset values) and unemployment/underempl... are about the most deflationary things i can think of. Both of those are getting worse.

Dave Rosenberg, via FTA:

"right now two out of every three companies are shedding labour. Average weekly earnings — the wage-based proxy for personal income — has slowed to a mere 1.2% YoY...They actually fell 0.2% MoM in May and over the last three months, have deflated in rare fashion at a 0.7% annual rate.

This is the critical deflation that the bond bears do not see — not yet anyway — but the Fed surely knows this and the view being expressed in the futures market that we will see three rate hikes in the next year seems to be out of touch with this wage contraction reality."

I don't buy the inflation canard for a second.

And the fed? Their actions pale in comparison to the amount of credit that has been destroyed -- see here: 3.bp.blogspot.com/_KqO...

here's the FTA link: ftalphaville.ft.com/bl.../