BrotherMaynard

Exxon Apostasy: A Closer Look at the Oil Giant's Real Valuation

thanks for the original analysis. I couldn’t agree more that E&P’s in general are wildly overvalued at these energy prices. Credit suisse finally mentioned that (published via barrons):

“At $45 [per barrel] oil and $6 [per MMBtu] gas (2009 curve currently at $44.25 [per barrel] oil and $6.00 [per MMBtu] gas), the stocks are trading at a 37% premium to NAV, with the gas-focused names at a 43% premium and oil E&Ps at a 22% premium.

At $40 [per barrel] oil and $5.50 [MMBtu] gas (closer to current spot prices), the E&Ps are trading at a 65% premium-to-proved NAV with the gas names at a 75% premium versus 55% for the oilier names.”

One thing about your XOM 09 ests…i haven’t looked but XOM probably has quite a bit of its production locked up via hedges I’d be surprised if it was anything less than 75-80% 09 hedged and 50% ‘10 hedged. so i’d be skeptical that eps will show 50% variance.

(fyi...i posted this comment on your blog, too)

With China's Oil Demand Up, Watch A-Power Energy

This guy is dangerous. If he would dig a little deeper than CNBC nonsense he would realize that China's demand decline (second derivative of demand) between June and October of this year was a massive 778k BD. Percentage wise, this exceeds the US demand destruction over the same period. Diesel demand growth during Oct was the lowest of the year...6.7% compared to double that during the pre-olympic buildup.

china is choking on its inventories after the massive olympic and price-cut build ups...they have over 30 days of consumption for gasoline (double 2006's level) and 20 days of diesel consumption on hand (4x 2006 levels).

Folks, its a big mistake to extrapolate unsustainable trends. China's hoarding/stockpiling throughout the first half of the year was one of those trends. Those are the anomolies rather than some "new world order" which every oil long and opec member would want you to believe.