Bottom Line

Amazon Reports Q4 In Line, Q1 Outlook is Bullish

I felt guilty buying all those puts on AMZN today that I actually went on and made a purchase tonight... Thanks 2x Amazon!

Can Wall Street Pin the Rap on Societe Generale?

For sure, just ignore the tens of billions of writeoffs by the banks and more to come...we'll just blame the French for that stuff too... DOW 15k here we come!

'Slow Growth' Or Recession?

The rate cut and this obsession with the Fed is such a red herring... has anyone noticed that earnings forecasts are coming DOWN? jesus f'ing christ, if i see another post about how a rate cut is going to restore confidence i'm going to scream.

6 Reasons the Market Should Bounce Here

Every genius wants to be the one who nails the timing of "the bounce"... it's getting old already... why hurry back in long this market... ask all those people who followed Kass' advice and started buying the financials....

It's Ugly Out There. What's Washington Waiting For?

"home prices are declining at rates never seen before." I find it particularly inane when people try to use this argument.

Home prices rose at rates never seen before, cutting rates and trying to salvage prices that should never have happened isn't a solution. If prices rise artificially, the worst thing you can do is to try to keep them at artifically high (and now unaffordable) prices.

If you want the housing market to stabilize, you need to accept a severe correction in prices so people can afford them without having to leverage their entire future by using "creative" financing to have a piece of the "American Dream".

Book Value Can Be Deceiving for Financials

This "subprime" crisis is nothing of the sort anymore. The consumer is tapped out after living well beyond their means for the past few years and the Housing Bubble is going to be largely responsible.

When prices ran to historically high and absurd levels consumers not only overextended themselves by buying homes they couldn't historically afford through traditional means, but current homeowners also refi'd their existing homes to the max in order to spend this new found wealth.

Why not max out that HELOC? My house will be worth 20% more next year!

People are just starting to talk about credit card defaults and just realizing that other things like car loans are probably next...

People are just so anxious to find that bottom after 2 tough weeks that there probably will be a bounce, but I don't think a bottom will be close until 3Q 2008.

Housing Risk Factor: Keep an Eye out for December Data

Brave call, houses are certainly cheaper than a year ago, but look at where they are vs. prices 6 years ago and there's still a long way to go.

Existing Home Sales: Trying To Make A Bottom

Now that all the smoke and mirrors have gone, there are very few "creative ways" to buy a home you can't really afford. We won't have a bottom or even be close to it until home prices reach historical norms when it comes to pricing.

Housing isn't a great investment historically, normally you can expect slightly above inflation returns on that investment, not 10,20 or 30% a year.

Case-Shiller Index says we've lost around 10% in "value", so if houses appreciated around 50% from 2002/2003 we still have to come back another 10-15% at least. But I think we'll overshoot things on the downside around 2009/10.

It's funny that people still neglect the affordability issue in searching for a bottom.

8 Key Investment Themes for 2008

Good article yesterday in the LA Times on the China economy. Since it's somewhat negative, I don't expect to see it on CNBC:

The most important story to come out of Washington recently had nothing to do with the endless presidential campaign. And although the media largely ignored it, the story changes the world.

The story's unlikely source was the staid World Bank, which published updated statistics on the economic output of 146 countries. China's economy, said the bank, is smaller than it thought.

About 40% smaller.

Link:
www.latimes.com/news/o...