STX has been one of my big winners over the last 12 months. I bought it initially in June 2012 and traded in and out several times. I missed the boat on $34 prior earnings, oh well. Waiting for a good entry point, I also agree the market is overdue for a pullback, but not sure how low STX will go, I think we will see $39 but not sure about $35.
My entry point used to be lees then $31, dont think that will happen unless North Korea and Syria go crazy, the EU breaks up and Nobama announces the United Socialist States of America.
5 Warning Signs That The Rally Is Fizzling [View article]
Thanks Bret for your guidance and insight. I follow your recommendations closely, although I am probably more skiddish then most.
I followed your recs and bought GLW but sold it with an 8% gain, I rotated out of PSX at $66, re- started small positions in HFC and PSX this week with the 7% drop. I hold KO, and small positions in AGNC and BPT with some gains but will add to KO with a correction. I sit on 20% gains on KMR and LNCO in my IRA but I bought them for their yield so I hold on. I have COP and RDS.B and they have not done much for me, flat. I have a sizable position in APPL and consider adding under $420. I add to CELG at dips under $110.
While I am concerned about the transportation data and Europe I really think europe is becoming more and more background noise for the US, "been there done that" news. Although my european portfolio that I hold in germany is up 15% since August 2012, it is down 2% today, far more volitile than US stocks.
I agree with your cash recs, I am at 10% in my IRA, 24% in my brokerage accounts.
Thanks Bret, I appreciate your article. I think the most improtant factor for Europe is how long the northern countries can sell to their electorate the need to shell out billions for southern countries. The german election in September will be key. I could very well see Europe going the way of two blocks, north (germany, BeNeLux, Poland, Scandinavia, +/- Britain) and south (France+the rest).
I have after research and reading your articles raised 25% cash, reduced the number of my positions, sold refiners and hold on to AAPL, GLW, KO, COP, RDS and BPT. I know I am overweight in oil. I bought CELG today on the 5% pullback and sold AGNC Friday and bought a small position (3% of portfolio) back today for 5% less. I hold MLPs in my IRA, KMR, LNCO, MMLP.
Again thanks for all your good advice for us small investors.
Celgene And The Race To Cure Multiple Myeloma [View article]
Thank you for the article, good information. You point out the pipeline nicely and have a overall positive outlook, which I believe is justified. I do think the stock is a buy now, just as it was when I first bought it in 2011 for $39. I would buy on dips which will happen inevitably with news, like the one that Revlimid causes cancer (CNN story) which is often overblown but offers buying opportunities.
The market for Revlimid will grow because of better treatment but also because of rising incidence, in 2005 16,000 people were diagnosed with MM, now it is 21,000 per year, meaning the customer base is growing, unfortunately.
Revlimid, while it indeed competes with Velcade in 1st line therapy, should really be used simultanously with the RVD (RevVelDex) regimen, it will take years for these advanced, cutting edge regimens to penetrate down from the large tertiary care centers to the mom-and-pop docs in rural America, so there is future growth potential. Also Revlimid is used for maintenance which can last years and also offers future growth potential.
Pomalidomide should not cannibalize Revlimid sales due to the FDA mandate for use in patients that are resistent to Revlimid or Velcade, its direct competitor is Carfilzomib but as these drugs are used sequentially every patient will be eventually exposed to each drug.
ZACKs is very focused on dropping Thalidomide sales as a negative for CELG, which I think is misguided. I actually want Thal sales to drop because that means that the more expensive Revlimid is used instead. Less Thal = higher Revenue
The drug in the pipeline to watch for is Apremilast, which if successful would be an oral Embrel and would have a market potential far outmatching myeloma due to the large number of potential patients with rheumatologic disorders.
Nuance Communications: Apple Supplier Offering Great Entry Point After Sell-Off [View article]
Thanks Bret for the informative article. Keep up the great work.
To the critics, I follow Bret and read every one of his articles because he gives me ideas, makes me think about stocks I may never have heard of. One page, concise to the point, if I am interested, I can always do more research.
Merrily Going Off The Fiscal Cliff Together [View article]
I never thought I would say this but I actually start to agree with this statement. I think it is clear after the 75% tax in France that the super-high earners will really not care as they have the means to evade. It will be the new Obama-rich ($250,000ish) that will pay but we also will get by till he is gone. The GOP should not allow a deal with only tax increases, regardless for whom and no spending reform.
The Obama voters will pay the price, especially the under-30 population.
We could have avoided all this were it not for the one who advised John McCain to get a running mate who can see Russia from her window and shoots stuff from a helicopter. That was one of the worst decisions this decade for the GOP and America.
This Cheap BioPharma Has Further Upside Ahead [View article]
I am a fairly new investor and there is only one company I know really well and that is CELG. I have used all their products and was at one time at the institution that has the largest account for CELG worldwide. I have also done and still doing extensive field research, meaning talked to the customer base (oncologists) nationwide while doing consulting work in cancer care. Here is my take on CELG which I bought first in 2011 at $39:
1. Revlimid is a cash cow and will continue to be. Only analysts care about the secondary malignancies, the incidence is so low and the benefit of the drug so great that no serious oncologist would not give the drug. If your doctor tells you not to go on Rev because of second cancer, run for the exit.
2. Rev had good results in the CALGB maintenance study which may lead to FDA maintenance approval, will not affect sales that much as it is used widely off label for maintenance but it will give the stockk a boost
3. Some analyst downgraded CELG because of dropping Thalidomide sales. That is idiotic. You want Revlimid to be used instead because it is the better drug and CELG makes more money off Rev, this news actually should be a reson to UPGRADE.
4. Videza continues to increase sales despit being off patent!!!
5. Pomalidomide will be another killer drug, it will compete directly with the ONXX drug "Carfilzomib" its advantage is it is oral and does not cause sudden cardiac arrests (this one really is scary for doctors)
6. Cramer loved CELG, he also lives next to the CEO
Buffett Agrees - Doing Nothing Is The Path To Investment Success [View article]
Thank you for this article, very informative to read. Also the comments. I learned investing as a teen with my father in the Reagen boom of the late 80s when trades actually took several days to complete and the stock exchange in Germany sent us the charts by mail every week. As so many I did not invest for years because I felt I could not afford the losses, started in 2011 and got cocky fast and decided to trade earnings in Q1 2012 and failed so miserably, I will only come out +2-3% for the year. I switched my whole portfolio to your approach at that time because I realized I cannot cut it as a trader.
I am long MCD and KMI, I am waiting for a good entry point for KO. I prefer COP, PSX, MUR and now BP over CVX and XOM but will see how this pans out. I try to run by the WB rules, never sell with a loss and be greedy when people are scared and scared when people are greedy. Although sometimes you got to trade, I bought STX for 22 earlier this year and sold at 33 because I got scared, now I get back in at below 27.
ConocoPhillips: A Solid Dividend And Value Play After Earnings [View article]
Thank you for the information, I got PSX after the split but did not invest in COP. I am the standard dumb money so while I like your pieces on for example MPC, I tent to stay with the big names (XOM, CVX) but I will look into COP based on your recs.
Any of your thoughts on MUR and the coming split would be much appreciated.
The comments from June 2011 read like some of the comments today, example:
Your figure may be right or wrong Here is the real problem with aapl NOW Train wreck Product still has problems Iphone dropped call still persists. Product delay and have very little to change just refresh old models. $ 30 billion being spent on a donut space ship campus ( please that's the share holders money ) Ipad has big problems No Adobe Flash , No Led Flash. Top officer bailed more to come. When Steve leave it's over for the attention to detail. When Steve leaves the card blanch go out the door. The chart CMF is very negitive. The shorts are increasing fast. Institutions are bailing Apple turn over is done.
Fallout From QE3: 2 Restaurant Stocks To Short [View article]
Bret, thank you for your daily insights here at SA. I loved your VICL piece.
Regarding the comments, they overcharge to cover the enormous losses hospitals have to take in non-money making departments, especially ER where the law requires that you cannot be turned away, so they have to see the uninsured person with the running nose for costs of $5,000 that could have been seen at the doc-in-the-box for $50. Radiology services is one of the areas where money can be made. I you have insurance you have been footing the bill for a long time. You are actually far worse of if you have a decent job and have insurance because you do not qualify for aid.
Physician practices are a business, just like a lawyer practice or financial advisor or restaurant. All this talk about ethics and having a responsibility to the patient, in the end its a business , it needs black numbers or it will go out of business. They already see people for free (medicaid) and even more after the fiscal cliff (medicare with 20% cut will be money loosing). So if you run a business and you actually have to pay to work (see a medicare patient), wouldn't you rather stay home and not loose money?
I would not worry about tort reform and suing people, I would worry that your new doctor might be a nurse practitioner, good luck with that.
Abbott's Humira: A Drug To Buy Into [View article]
The cause is most likely a genetic pre-disposition enhanced by environmental factors, not lifestyle-choices. Crohn's disease, a UC relative has some evidence to be viral based. So the cause is most likely multi-factorial.
If you are interested in investing in these drugs, I suggest looking into Celgene (CELG).
There is a two-tiered education system for engineers in GER, FH and universities. This salary is most likely for the more practical oriented engineers [Dipl. Ing. (FH)] versus the academic oriented university graduates.
Seagate: I Told You So [View article]
STX has been one of my big winners over the last 12 months. I bought it initially in June 2012 and traded in and out several times. I missed the boat on $34 prior earnings, oh well. Waiting for a good entry point, I also agree the market is overdue for a pullback, but not sure how low STX will go, I think we will see $39 but not sure about $35.
My entry point used to be lees then $31, dont think that will happen unless North Korea and Syria go crazy, the EU breaks up and Nobama announces the United Socialist States of America.
Shopping For Bargains [View article]
5 Warning Signs That The Rally Is Fizzling [View article]
I followed your recs and bought GLW but sold it with an 8% gain, I rotated out of PSX at $66, re- started small positions in HFC and PSX this week with the 7% drop. I hold KO, and small positions in AGNC and BPT with some gains but will add to KO with a correction. I sit on 20% gains on KMR and LNCO in my IRA but I bought them for their yield so I hold on. I have COP and RDS.B and they have not done much for me, flat. I have a sizable position in APPL and consider adding under $420. I add to CELG at dips under $110.
While I am concerned about the transportation data and Europe I really think europe is becoming more and more background noise for the US, "been there done that" news. Although my european portfolio that I hold in germany is up 15% since August 2012, it is down 2% today, far more volitile than US stocks.
I agree with your cash recs, I am at 10% in my IRA, 24% in my brokerage accounts.
The Time For Caution Is Upon Us [View article]
I have after research and reading your articles raised 25% cash, reduced the number of my positions, sold refiners and hold on to AAPL, GLW, KO, COP, RDS and BPT. I know I am overweight in oil. I bought CELG today on the 5% pullback and sold AGNC Friday and bought a small position (3% of portfolio) back today for 5% less. I hold MLPs in my IRA, KMR, LNCO, MMLP.
Again thanks for all your good advice for us small investors.
Celgene And The Race To Cure Multiple Myeloma [View article]
The market for Revlimid will grow because of better treatment but also because of rising incidence, in 2005 16,000 people were diagnosed with MM, now it is 21,000 per year, meaning the customer base is growing, unfortunately.
Revlimid, while it indeed competes with Velcade in 1st line therapy, should really be used simultanously with the RVD (RevVelDex) regimen, it will take years for these advanced, cutting edge regimens to penetrate down from the large tertiary care centers to the mom-and-pop docs in rural America, so there is future growth potential. Also Revlimid is used for maintenance which can last years and also offers future growth potential.
Pomalidomide should not cannibalize Revlimid sales due to the FDA mandate for use in patients that are resistent to Revlimid or Velcade, its direct competitor is Carfilzomib but as these drugs are used sequentially every patient will be eventually exposed to each drug.
ZACKs is very focused on dropping Thalidomide sales as a negative for CELG, which I think is misguided. I actually want Thal sales to drop because that means that the more expensive Revlimid is used instead. Less Thal = higher Revenue
The drug in the pipeline to watch for is Apremilast, which if successful would be an oral Embrel and would have a market potential far outmatching myeloma due to the large number of potential patients with rheumatologic disorders.
Long CELG.
Nuance Communications: Apple Supplier Offering Great Entry Point After Sell-Off [View article]
To the critics, I follow Bret and read every one of his articles because he gives me ideas, makes me think about stocks I may never have heard of. One page, concise to the point, if I am interested, I can always do more research.
Special thanks for that one, Bret, made me tons of $$$
http://seekingalpha.co...
Merrily Going Off The Fiscal Cliff Together [View article]
The Obama voters will pay the price, especially the under-30 population.
We could have avoided all this were it not for the one who advised John McCain to get a running mate who can see Russia from her window and shoots stuff from a helicopter. That was one of the worst decisions this decade for the GOP and America.
Investment Ideas From IEA's World Energy Outlook [View article]
This Cheap BioPharma Has Further Upside Ahead [View article]
1. Revlimid is a cash cow and will continue to be. Only analysts care about the secondary malignancies, the incidence is so low and the benefit of the drug so great that no serious oncologist would not give the drug. If your doctor tells you not to go on Rev because of second cancer, run for the exit.
2. Rev had good results in the CALGB maintenance study which may lead to FDA maintenance approval, will not affect sales that much as it is used widely off label for maintenance but it will give the stockk a boost
3. Some analyst downgraded CELG because of dropping Thalidomide sales. That is idiotic. You want Revlimid to be used instead because it is the better drug and CELG makes more money off Rev, this news actually should be a reson to UPGRADE.
4. Videza continues to increase sales despit being off patent!!!
5. Pomalidomide will be another killer drug, it will compete directly with the ONXX drug "Carfilzomib" its advantage is it is oral and does not cause sudden cardiac arrests (this one really is scary for doctors)
6. Cramer loved CELG, he also lives next to the CEO
I am long CELG and I continue to buy on the dips.
Buffett Agrees - Doing Nothing Is The Path To Investment Success [View article]
I am long MCD and KMI, I am waiting for a good entry point for KO. I prefer COP, PSX, MUR and now BP over CVX and XOM but will see how this pans out. I try to run by the WB rules, never sell with a loss and be greedy when people are scared and scared when people are greedy. Although sometimes you got to trade, I bought STX for 22 earlier this year and sold at 33 because I got scared, now I get back in at below 27.
Thanks again for the good write-up.
ConocoPhillips: A Solid Dividend And Value Play After Earnings [View article]
Any of your thoughts on MUR and the coming split would be much appreciated.
Why iPhone 5 Will Be A Success [View article]
Your figure may be right or wrong Here is the real problem with aapl NOW
Train wreck
Product still has problems Iphone dropped call still persists.
Product delay and have very little to change just refresh old models.
$ 30 billion being spent on a donut space ship campus ( please that's the share holders money )
Ipad has big problems No Adobe Flash , No Led Flash.
Top officer bailed more to come.
When Steve leave it's over for the attention to detail.
When Steve leaves the card blanch go out the door.
The chart CMF is very negitive.
The shorts are increasing fast.
Institutions are bailing
Apple turn over is done.
Late long AAPL, too few shares, buying on dips.
Fallout From QE3: 2 Restaurant Stocks To Short [View article]
Regarding the comments, they overcharge to cover the enormous losses hospitals have to take in non-money making departments, especially ER where the law requires that you cannot be turned away, so they have to see the uninsured person with the running nose for costs of $5,000 that could have been seen at the doc-in-the-box for $50. Radiology services is one of the areas where money can be made. I you have insurance you have been footing the bill for a long time. You are actually far worse of if you have a decent job and have insurance because you do not qualify for aid.
Physician practices are a business, just like a lawyer practice or financial advisor or restaurant. All this talk about ethics and having a responsibility to the patient, in the end its a business , it needs black numbers or it will go out of business. They already see people for free (medicaid) and even more after the fiscal cliff (medicare with 20% cut will be money loosing). So if you run a business and you actually have to pay to work (see a medicare patient), wouldn't you rather stay home and not loose money?
I would not worry about tort reform and suing people, I would worry that your new doctor might be a nurse practitioner, good luck with that.
Abbott's Humira: A Drug To Buy Into [View article]
If you are interested in investing in these drugs, I suggest looking into Celgene (CELG).
All Signs Are Pointing Down [View article]
FH = Fach-Hochschule