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Tokugawa

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  • Bank Of America: Slowly Getting Back On Track [View article]
    Thank you for your insight and advice, I think I read everything you post on SA. I have done well following your advice on AAPL last year when everybody else was so bearish, looking back $390 was a good buy for AAPL. I opened small positions in CBI, LVS and yesterday KORS after the big drop.

    Having that said, since 2008 I really have a hard time investing money in the financial sector, I invested in AIG and sold at 55, but no banks. I just have the continued impression that the management of big banks has lost control and oversight of what the rank and file is doing, so I am staying away.
    Jul 16, 2014. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene In Mylan's Cross-Hairs: "I'm Shakin' In My Boots"... Well, Maybe A Little [View article]
    Due to the history of Thalidomide and its derivates Revlimid and Pomalidomide, the FDA requires CELG to have an extensive prescription program in place, called STEPS and REVASSIST. Not every doctor is allowed by the FDA to prescribe these drugs, the paperwork is enormous, I am not talking about patient assistance, I mean to prescribe the drugs. The infrastructure required for that would entail a call center for patients, a significant IT effort and also a sales force on the ground to trouble shoot problems in physicians offices on site.

    That is more than a generics company normally can get done.
    Apr 7, 2014. 10:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Continues To Bet On The Bakken [View article]
    Great article, thanks Bret.

    After some of his recent speeches, I am more than ever convinced that NoBama is a european-style social democrat with a wealth re-distribution agenda. He fooled many in 2008, myself included, all I can do now is wait for 2016.
    Jan 3, 2014. 11:12 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pharmacyclics: As Imbruvica Commercialization Begins, Sell-Off Creates Opportunity [View article]
    It is hard from the outside to really appreciate the significance of botech developments. I always LOL when analysts voice concern about Celgene's dropping Thalidomide sales figures. As a user and CELG holder, that is what I want because it means more Revlimid sales.

    In the last decades there were many new and exciting drugs that improved outcomes, for example Thalidomide and Revlimid for MM. But there were few gamechangers, drugs that totally changed the approach to a disease, in my career I would only count Rituxan and Gleevec into this category.

    Ibrutinib is a third drug, it will change CLL treatment completely. I bought PCYC at under $100 simply because of the hype I encountered from users/prescribers all over the country during my consulting work.
    Jan 3, 2014. 10:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kite Realty Group: Too Cheap After Recent Sell-Off [View article]
    Well, for all your good tips, did you look at PCYC, I started this week an initial small position at $80, ready to add more if further dips.

    I am not a finance person but I know their drug from my line of work, the BTK inhibitor is a monster of a drug, unless it turns out later to cause people to drop dead, I can only compare it to Novartis' Gleevec, a gamechanger. It should sell like candy. FDA approval is certain.
    Jun 26, 2013. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kite Realty Group: Too Cheap After Recent Sell-Off [View article]
    Thanks Bret! Got into a small position of KRG at $5.50, can double up if predictions come true and the S&P really drops to 1500.

    I followed the June 12, 2012 recs into STX, my best performer last year. Since then I buy some of your picks, Now I hope your AAPL predictions pan out and retirement at 45 will be an option (ok, joking).
    Jun 26, 2013. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shopping For Bargains [View article]
    Shopper, added overweight to PSX, COP, HFC yesterday, sold half of those positions today with a nice little gain. Could add some more COP under $57.
    Apr 16, 2013. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Warning Signs That The Rally Is Fizzling [View article]
    Thanks Bret for your guidance and insight. I follow your recommendations closely, although I am probably more skiddish then most.

    I followed your recs and bought GLW but sold it with an 8% gain, I rotated out of PSX at $66, re- started small positions in HFC and PSX this week with the 7% drop. I hold KO, and small positions in AGNC and BPT with some gains but will add to KO with a correction. I sit on 20% gains on KMR and LNCO in my IRA but I bought them for their yield so I hold on. I have COP and RDS.B and they have not done much for me, flat. I have a sizable position in APPL and consider adding under $420. I add to CELG at dips under $110.

    While I am concerned about the transportation data and Europe I really think europe is becoming more and more background noise for the US, "been there done that" news. Although my european portfolio that I hold in germany is up 15% since August 2012, it is down 2% today, far more volitile than US stocks.

    I agree with your cash recs, I am at 10% in my IRA, 24% in my brokerage accounts.
    Apr 5, 2013. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time For Caution Is Upon Us [View article]
    Thanks Bret, I appreciate your article. I think the most improtant factor for Europe is how long the northern countries can sell to their electorate the need to shell out billions for southern countries. The german election in September will be key. I could very well see Europe going the way of two blocks, north (germany, BeNeLux, Poland, Scandinavia, +/- Britain) and south (France+the rest).

    I have after research and reading your articles raised 25% cash, reduced the number of my positions, sold refiners and hold on to AAPL, GLW, KO, COP, RDS and BPT. I know I am overweight in oil. I bought CELG today on the 5% pullback and sold AGNC Friday and bought a small position (3% of portfolio) back today for 5% less. I hold MLPs in my IRA, KMR, LNCO, MMLP.

    Again thanks for all your good advice for us small investors.
    Mar 18, 2013. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene And The Race To Cure Multiple Myeloma [View article]
    Thank you for the article, good information. You point out the pipeline nicely and have a overall positive outlook, which I believe is justified. I do think the stock is a buy now, just as it was when I first bought it in 2011 for $39. I would buy on dips which will happen inevitably with news, like the one that Revlimid causes cancer (CNN story) which is often overblown but offers buying opportunities.

    The market for Revlimid will grow because of better treatment but also because of rising incidence, in 2005 16,000 people were diagnosed with MM, now it is 21,000 per year, meaning the customer base is growing, unfortunately.

    Revlimid, while it indeed competes with Velcade in 1st line therapy, should really be used simultanously with the RVD (RevVelDex) regimen, it will take years for these advanced, cutting edge regimens to penetrate down from the large tertiary care centers to the mom-and-pop docs in rural America, so there is future growth potential. Also Revlimid is used for maintenance which can last years and also offers future growth potential.

    Pomalidomide should not cannibalize Revlimid sales due to the FDA mandate for use in patients that are resistent to Revlimid or Velcade, its direct competitor is Carfilzomib but as these drugs are used sequentially every patient will be eventually exposed to each drug.

    ZACKs is very focused on dropping Thalidomide sales as a negative for CELG, which I think is misguided. I actually want Thal sales to drop because that means that the more expensive Revlimid is used instead. Less Thal = higher Revenue

    The drug in the pipeline to watch for is Apremilast, which if successful would be an oral Embrel and would have a market potential far outmatching myeloma due to the large number of potential patients with rheumatologic disorders.

    Long CELG.
    Feb 15, 2013. 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuance Communications: Apple Supplier Offering Great Entry Point After Sell-Off [View article]
    Thanks Bret for the informative article. Keep up the great work.

    To the critics, I follow Bret and read every one of his articles because he gives me ideas, makes me think about stocks I may never have heard of. One page, concise to the point, if I am interested, I can always do more research.

    Special thanks for that one, Bret, made me tons of $$$
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 12, 2013. 09:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merrily Going Off The Fiscal Cliff Together [View article]
    I never thought I would say this but I actually start to agree with this statement. I think it is clear after the 75% tax in France that the super-high earners will really not care as they have the means to evade. It will be the new Obama-rich ($250,000ish) that will pay but we also will get by till he is gone. The GOP should not allow a deal with only tax increases, regardless for whom and no spending reform.

    The Obama voters will pay the price, especially the under-30 population.

    We could have avoided all this were it not for the one who advised John McCain to get a running mate who can see Russia from her window and shoots stuff from a helicopter. That was one of the worst decisions this decade for the GOP and America.
    Dec 1, 2012. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Ideas From IEA's World Energy Outlook [View article]
    Great article. I am long KMI/KMR in my IRA. No comment on BP and COP/PSX?
    Nov 24, 2012. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Cheap BioPharma Has Further Upside Ahead [View article]
    I am a fairly new investor and there is only one company I know really well and that is CELG. I have used all their products and was at one time at the institution that has the largest account for CELG worldwide. I have also done and still doing extensive field research, meaning talked to the customer base (oncologists) nationwide while doing consulting work in cancer care. Here is my take on CELG which I bought first in 2011 at $39:

    1. Revlimid is a cash cow and will continue to be. Only analysts care about the secondary malignancies, the incidence is so low and the benefit of the drug so great that no serious oncologist would not give the drug. If your doctor tells you not to go on Rev because of second cancer, run for the exit.

    2. Rev had good results in the CALGB maintenance study which may lead to FDA maintenance approval, will not affect sales that much as it is used widely off label for maintenance but it will give the stockk a boost

    3. Some analyst downgraded CELG because of dropping Thalidomide sales. That is idiotic. You want Revlimid to be used instead because it is the better drug and CELG makes more money off Rev, this news actually should be a reson to UPGRADE.

    4. Videza continues to increase sales despit being off patent!!!

    5. Pomalidomide will be another killer drug, it will compete directly with the ONXX drug "Carfilzomib" its advantage is it is oral and does not cause sudden cardiac arrests (this one really is scary for doctors)

    6. Cramer loved CELG, he also lives next to the CEO

    I am long CELG and I continue to buy on the dips.
    Nov 5, 2012. 12:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Agrees - Doing Nothing Is The Path To Investment Success [View article]
    Thank you for this article, very informative to read. Also the comments. I learned investing as a teen with my father in the Reagen boom of the late 80s when trades actually took several days to complete and the stock exchange in Germany sent us the charts by mail every week. As so many I did not invest for years because I felt I could not afford the losses, started in 2011 and got cocky fast and decided to trade earnings in Q1 2012 and failed so miserably, I will only come out +2-3% for the year. I switched my whole portfolio to your approach at that time because I realized I cannot cut it as a trader.

    I am long MCD and KMI, I am waiting for a good entry point for KO. I prefer COP, PSX, MUR and now BP over CVX and XOM but will see how this pans out. I try to run by the WB rules, never sell with a loss and be greedy when people are scared and scared when people are greedy. Although sometimes you got to trade, I bought STX for 22 earlier this year and sold at 33 because I got scared, now I get back in at below 27.

    Thanks again for the good write-up.
    Oct 31, 2012. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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