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Billyspeed

Billyspeed
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  • Secular Trends And Overvaluation Make McDonald's A Strong Sell [View article]
    Even given all the well known headwinds, MCD (probably thanks to it's generous and secure dividend) has held up well. Certainly, it has underperformed by any metric but, given all it has faced, if you told me it was trading in the $70's, I certainly could believe it. So, bottom line, it's probably seen the worst that the market can throw at it and, while it might not be a stellar performer, this is NOT the time to sell it. A new CEO and potential activist investors along with a potential BOD shakeup are catalysts for better times. If you've suffered through the last year or two, why throw in the towel now?
    Feb 18, 2015. 03:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does McDonald's Need An Activist? [View article]
    Not only do they need an activist, new CEO and BOD, but an aggressive new strategy. Cleaning up and simplifying the menu is just the beginning. They need to BUY GROWTH! There are plenty of new and exciting scalable restaurant concepts out there. Some already public, some not. They've got plenty of cash flow to do it. Paying dividends just will not cut it with investors anymore. They will demand growth and MCD has the $$$ to find it and buy it. Never forget....they owned CMG and got rid of it! Pure genius (not).
    Jan 5, 2015. 11:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Is Behind The Curve... Can It Catch Up? [View article]
    As I write this, it is being announced that Shake Shack just filed for an IPO. 53 stores and rapidly growing. They should NEVER be allowed to come to market. MCD should buy the company, leave the management in place, and let it grow. THAT is how MCD can recapture growth. Never forget, they used to own CMG. Can you imagine the price of MCD stock if they had never sold it. They must simplify the menu and improve quality but that is not the future of MCD. Buying back stock and increasing the dividend is not the future. The future is finding exciting new concepts and buying them. Some will fail. Some will be home runs. But that is how MCD can grow. Buy it, because at it's size, it cannot grow organically.
    Dec 29, 2014. 11:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Decline Of McDonald's [View article]
    Long past time for SA to stop publishing this mushy type of generic analysis of MCD (and some other companies). It adds nothing to the knowledge base, is repetitive, is only designed to generate meager revenue for the author and provides zero insight. If you can't generate some thoughtful analysis, please, don't publish this kind of pap.
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:41 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activist rumors propel McDonald's [View news story]
    Nothing will focus the attention of this management like one or more hard nosed activists pushing them to make the decisions they've been afraid to make. The CEO and Board have been very risk averse and allowed the business to petrify. Don't forget....they used to own CMG! Can you imagine the MCD stock price today if they had kept it (and not screwed it up)? There are other companies and concepts out there just incubating and ready to be scooped up by a cash rich MCD. Maybe, they just need to stop worrying about returning cash to their largely unhappy shareholders and go out and BUY some future growth.
    Dec 16, 2014. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cybersecurity a major concern in C-suites after Sony hack [View news story]
    Much easier said then done. All it takes is one very human mistake or intentional act and that non-internet connected network can be easily infected. The Iranian nuclear program was not connected and yet was infected with Stuxnet by an intentional act.
    Dec 14, 2014. 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Part Of The Business Model Is Broken [View article]
    I disagree. The case for an activist investor is strong. This company has been the target of activists before and the sector has been a favorite playground of a number of big activists currently and in the recent past. While this battleship is going to be very hard to turn around, given the strength of the brand and huge cash flow and the efficiencies of the marketplace, it is only a matter of time until someone makes a run at them. After all, SOMEBODY has been buying all this stock that has been dumped in the last few trading sessions. Not expecting a quick turn but a new CEO and an activist filing would go a long way to lifting the stock.
    Dec 9, 2014. 05:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: McDonald's Same-Stores Go From Bad To Much Worse [View article]
    The only things that are going to turn this battleship around are 1) the entrance of an activist investor demanding to shake things up and 2) a new CEO, as Thompson has clearly demonstrated he is not the man for the job.
    Dec 8, 2014. 02:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally, Some Good News For McDonald's. Now Is The Time To Buy [View article]
    Don't underestimate the significant tailwind that lower gasoline prices means to MCD. We all know the problems and they are meaningful but low gas prices will help the comps and buy the company time to fix the issues. Not sure this management is up to the task but the stock is acting much better.
    Nov 11, 2014. 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Oil Driller Is Laughing In The Face Of Lower Commodity Prices [View article]
    This is a VERY smart management group that puts it's money where it matters....they buy their own stock. They have a real incentive to perform and have demonstrated their ability to do it. I would not bet against them and, in spite of the macro environment, I'd go along for the ride with them.
    Nov 11, 2014. 11:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Millenials Aren't The Problem [View article]
    In spite of all the well known problems facing MCD, the one factor that will overcome them all is lower oil prices. This is the tail-wind that will paper over all other issues. With lower commodity prices and more money in the consumer's pockets, MCD will be a major beneficiary...and the stock is acting like it. In the face of a mediocre earnings report, the stock is moving higher. Low oil prices will buy the company time to fix what ails it. Price is the ultimate arbiter of market sentiment and it is telling us that MCD has likely bottomed out.
    Nov 4, 2014. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling Should Sell Itself [View article]
    Good article and analysis. Unfortunately, with oil at $80, the willingness of the logical players to step up and buy PACD is much lower than it was with oil over $100. With oil still weak, such a buyout is very unlikely. Timing is everything and PACD missed their opportunity.
    Oct 30, 2014. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sonic Corporation Earnings Further Embarrass McDonald's [View article]
    Could never buy SONC based on my own very simple channel check; the two stores in my area are always empty. After an initial opening flurry, they are deadsville. Mickey D's, while certainly facing problems, is always busy.
    Oct 29, 2014. 11:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For McDonald's Potential Acquisition Of Chipotle: If You Can't Beat Them..Buy Them [View article]
    Given their recent track record, they'd still find a way to screw it up!
    Oct 24, 2014. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For McDonald's Potential Acquisition Of Chipotle: If You Can't Beat Them..Buy Them [View article]
    Nice try but completely outside any realm of possibility. Ain't never going to happen. However, it is NOT unrealistic for MCD to acquire a new growth engine. There are a number of possibilities including LOCO, PLKI, CHUY, and others. Bottom line: they must find a new vehicle to grow because what they're doing now, just won't move the needle. And if Thompson, the CEO won't do it, they need to get someone who will.
    Oct 24, 2014. 11:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
176 Comments
225 Likes