SB-tiger

57 Comments

    • Potash Corp: Liquidity Trouble Ahead? [view article]
      Commodity cycle is bust. New capacity will come online – completely upsetting the demand-supply equation. Producers will end up with too much debt – trying to build capacity, consumers are short of money – lower prices and less demand – downward spiral.

      Yes Potash (and everyone else) likely to go much lower.
      Oct 09 09:36 PM
    • Stocks Plunge, Again [view article]
      Too late to short, not too late to SELL.

      Cash and fetal are the only two positions in this market. Don’t fall for the value trap, it is deleveraging and risk aversion – current value is of no consequence – we don’t know what the real value would be. If buyers/consumers don’t have money or credit it is game over. Apple may have cool products or fertilizers help crop yields – without money nothing will move. The reflation that the central banks are attempting will take a long time to take traction. D-word is in, long haul ahead.

      Stocks can go down to any level at this point 800, 700 who knows where we can end up in the next couple of weeks, or even tomorrow. Nikkei is down 11% already today.       Oct 09 09:24 PM
    • S&P 500 Price Growth: 1927-Aug 2008 [view article]
      More important point to note form an investment perspective is S&P is at a 10 year low. Even if you dollar cost averaged into S&P, last 10 years, you would have lost money. Treasury's would not only have preserved your capital and also would have given at least 3% return (I don't know the exact number is) vs. 1.62% for the S&P.

      So equity investment has been a complete scam - Wall Street gets the big bonuses and salaries paid for by us investors. All confidence is lost – systemic risk has been realized – it is worldwide meltdown. The system must be broken up completely.

      Meanwhile we are going way down as was clearly evidenced by the post bailout reaction. Bailouts are becoming bigger and bigger but the rallies are becoming smaller and shorter. Finally we had the biggest bailout, the grand daddy of them all, and the market actually went down.

      From a technical perspective all support levels have been pierced - 200 d ma, 220 w ma, next support seems to be at 800 the 2002 low.

      So just brace yourself, get out stay out.
      Oct 05 11:19 AM
    • The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
      The commodity bubble has burst. The valuations are based on current future price of the commodity. The prices are coming down rapidly - share prices are following.

      Commodity prices are very cyclical. On the up move all kinds of stories are written - Chinese protein intake, world population growth,....But we know as demand increases supply quickly follows - the glut will crash the prices. There is no peak supply story for fertilizers.

      This bubble was created by the hedge funds and the Wall Street marketing machine, they made their quick buck. Lot of gullible investors are now left holding the baby and dreaming.

      With the deep recession and the great unwind on hand beware of commodities. These are the classic falling knives – they may not just cut your hands the big ones may actually behead you.

      No position in fertilizers, out look very bearish.
      Oct 04 07:46 AM
    • 'No Shorts' Outperforming [view article]
      Shorts add liquidity and price discovery to the market – a very very important function needed for smooth functioning of the market. They take the maximum risk – they are outnumbered and out gunned, and despised. Just imagined of the market was shorted enough so the bubble would not have formed. That does not happen because these same individuals likely on the long side of the market at that point.

      Shorts have exposed the lies in the balance sheets and flawed business models – Fonie/Fraudie, GS, MS etc. Wamu and Wachovia fell under the weight of their own balance sheets, not by shorts. Lehman was insolvent – all the liquidity that Fed provided could not help it.

      Shorts have been completely vindicated they are the heroes.
      Sep 30 08:53 PM
    • It Could Happen - Cramer's Mad Money (9/26/08) [view article]
      All the bailouts have propped up these markets. This new bailout if it happens will postpone the crash by a week or two. But the big crash is coming, it aptly will come after the biggest bailout.

      Greenspan/Bernanke/Pau... - thank you all very much - RIP.

      Commodity price action is clearly indicating major global slowdown. For all the optimists- even S&P fell 50% after the dot scam bust. Even Greenspan couldn't prevent it.

      The biggest credit bubble has burst - stock aversion will happen. Sell every rally. All confidence in the system is gone.
      Sep 27 05:16 PM
    • The Calm Before the Storm? [view article]
      Get out and stay out of these markets. Ben-Paulson are manipulating them big time - policy changes on option expiry, short sale bans, bail outs and more mail outs,...

      I have had it with this duo. Ben - please go back to the Princeton debating society where you belong. Paulson - please enjoy your ill gotten $ 600 M with your Wall street buddies. Stop killing the 401Ks of ordinary American.
      Sep 26 11:42 PM
    • The Shorts Aren't the Problem [view article]
      Let the bust cycle play out. Stop trying to prop the markets. The markets must be allowed to fall to their natural values/sentiment. Govt meddling is destroying the markets.

      It is not the shorts, longs have gone into hiding for obvious reasons.

      Good luck and good bye.       Sep 23 10:16 PM
    • Healthcare Stocks: Due For a Selloff? [view article]
      When the inevitable recession happens and the companying stock aversion - all stocks will fall - HC may not fall as much as others - it is popularly believed to be a defensive sector.

      In any case - Sell Sell is the mantra in the current times.
      Sep 22 05:54 PM
    • Short Selling: Myths and Facts [view article]
      Short selling – nothing is at all wrong with it. All market participants and institutions and regulators, academicians have always seen great value in it. It is somehow when we hit bear markets shorts start getting blamed. Shorts provide very important service to the market – price discovery and liquidity.

      Lot of studies were done on depression and stock market downfall – the unanimous conclusion after even Congressional studies– shorts did not cause the market slide – it was over valuation and the reckless bullish speculators.

      Let us take the case of Lehman – it was insolvent – no run on the bank on liquidity issues no rumor mongering. Unlike Bear it had the Fed window for any liquidity issue. No one wanted to buy it at any price. Its prized asset now has been sold to Barclays for $1.75 B –a third of the estimated distressed price, and Barclays was the only bidder. If the Lehman had any value – someone would buy it whole or parts at decent price- but that was not the case.

      Bears are the heroes they have exposed the balance sheets of these institutions. Shorts did not put leverage or the toxic stuff on these balance sheets. The institutions have been lying – “we are well capitalized and everything is marked down conservatively”. All lies.

      The action of banning short selling is exposing – what a house of cards there is – even after a Trillion $ bailout – still these institutions are vulnerable. So short selling has to be banned – no up uptick, no naked short banning. Simply a ban.

      Just remember shorts are out gunned and out numbered and despised. They have no means to over power the markets. Most market participants are simply long only.

      Have lost all confidence in these markets – Govt. has become the biggest manipulator – coming up with these draconian rules on option expiration day (not the first time).

      Getting out of the market –closing all my long and short positions. Investing in Gold, money markets, and China – at least the Govt. stays out of the market.
      Sep 22 01:28 PM
    • Global Stock Markets: Surviving the Most Turbulent Week Since 1987 [view article]
      Bailout nation. Audacity of stupidity. This dynamic duo of Ben-Paulson have been wrong every step of the way. The bazooka misfired now they want a nuclear missile.

      The wall street fat cats must be protected - that is the mantra of the country.

      Get out and stay out these markets manipulated by the Govt.       Sep 22 01:20 AM
    • A Paulson Fan's View of the U.S. Mortgage Company [view article]
      If Paulson is so smart - why is he wrong every step of the way. At the onset of the financial crisis last year he is first one to come to come up - this is not a crisis at all. Then subprime only, small crisis, crisis contained, worst is behind us. Give me a bazooka - trust me I will not use it. Now (after Fannie/Freddie bail out) - he needs a nuclear tipped missile.

      He is destroying capitalism (as we knew it or imagined it to be) - just to protect Goldman. When Goldman went down to 87 - he knew he has lot friends to protect.

      Wall street is just a den of thieves - old boys network - fat bonuses and Hampton homes.

      Rebel against it - call your congressman.
      Sep 20 05:44 PM
    • Going to Hell in a Handbasket: The Rush To Protect More Stocks [view article]
      I am tired of these bailouts and market manipulation by the Govt. Fat cats on wall street must not be bailed out – not by may tax money. These guys screwed up big time – now they raise the boogeyman- too big to fail. Fire all the CEOs – zero the equity - erase the golden parachutes.

      Call your congressman- jam their lines. Do something. There has to be accountability – if I screw up on my job – even if it is not me - I get fired. Why are these pompous overpaid fat cats in Wall Street not already fired.
      Sep 20 10:36 AM
    • Prepare to Sell Monday - Cramer's Mad Money (9/19/08) [view article]
      Igonre Cramer, he simply is a populist bubble maker. He has a new knee jerk idea everyday.

      However I am bearish on markets - after these market manipulating moves by the govt. - I have lost all confidence in the markets. Will sell out all my remanining positions - long/short - get into gold, CDs, Mmkts.       Sep 20 10:11 AM
    • VIX Spikes to 35 [view article]
      We would hit new highs on VIX. It is different this time - Tsunami of the century has hit us. Sep 17 11:01 PM
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