Fighting Yoda's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/135017/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/167101-american-austerity-is-about-to-begin?source=feed#comment-719865 719865
For those who don't realize China is printing a lot more money than even the US. Chinese Govt. is totally dependent on exports to the west to keep its employment and growth going. Chinese growth is a mirage – without internal consumption rising and exports falling – everything will come to a halt- as soon as the stimulus money is spent.

In the US- the consumer spending went up and savings went down - so it is the same confidence bigger fool game. There are no drivers for job growth - no jobs no income no spending and more foreclosures more losses for banks. All this is inevitable and despite all the green shoot propaganda and PPT - all roads lead downwards. US has to get back to basics – save and invest rather than borrow and consume. The individual consumers to some extent realize it – but the leadership imagines there is a easy way out.

Market going up gives a totally false signal, markets for most part are always wrong else you won't have such big bubbles and busts. Remember the markets were at their all time high a couple of months before the start of the biggest worldwide recession. I am suggesting shorting the market (have been saying the same for last 2000+ points) - hype springs eternal and markets can stay irrational for too long.]]> Sun, 18 Oct 2009 19:55:30 -0400
For those who don't realize China is printing a lot more money than even the US. Chinese Govt. is totally dependent on exports to the west to keep its employment and growth going. Chinese growth is a mirage – without internal consumption rising and exports falling – everything will come to a halt- as soon as the stimulus money is spent.

In the US- the consumer spending went up and savings went down - so it is the same confidence bigger fool game. There are no drivers for job growth - no jobs no income no spending and more foreclosures more losses for banks. All this is inevitable and despite all the green shoot propaganda and PPT - all roads lead downwards. US has to get back to basics – save and invest rather than borrow and consume. The individual consumers to some extent realize it – but the leadership imagines there is a easy way out.

Market going up gives a totally false signal, markets for most part are always wrong else you won't have such big bubbles and busts. Remember the markets were at their all time high a couple of months before the start of the biggest worldwide recession. I am suggesting shorting the market (have been saying the same for last 2000+ points) - hype springs eternal and markets can stay irrational for too long.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165763-the-declining-dollar-is-there-a-government-solution?source=feed#comment-712239 712239
Fiscal responsibility is the solution, the only problem is how do we get there - gold standard is perhaps not the solution. Gold puts artificial limitations on the monetary base, and also no one strictly follows the gold standard. Even during the hey days of gold standard central banks printed a lot more money than was back by gold reserves.

In the current environment, last 20+ years, the developing world - China, India, Korea etc have been exporting deflation. So no matter how much the Fed prints inflation is kept under check. But now we almost are reaching the tipping point, but not quite there yet.

America has to get back to ECON101 - Save- Invest -Produce -Consume. Rather than the current strategy of print/borrow - consume. Abolish the Fed we will have happier days ahead.]]> Sun, 11 Oct 2009 01:14:38 -0400
Fiscal responsibility is the solution, the only problem is how do we get there - gold standard is perhaps not the solution. Gold puts artificial limitations on the monetary base, and also no one strictly follows the gold standard. Even during the hey days of gold standard central banks printed a lot more money than was back by gold reserves.

In the current environment, last 20+ years, the developing world - China, India, Korea etc have been exporting deflation. So no matter how much the Fed prints inflation is kept under check. But now we almost are reaching the tipping point, but not quite there yet.

America has to get back to ECON101 - Save- Invest -Produce -Consume. Rather than the current strategy of print/borrow - consume. Abolish the Fed we will have happier days ahead.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165816-general-growth-properties-bankruptcy-not-the-end-of-malls?source=feed#comment-712229 712229
GGP is already on the brink - this Christmas is make or break for them - I think they would have come at the end of the line. But the only caveat being - bailouts. CREs are the next target of bailouts - so anything can ultimately happen.]]> Sun, 11 Oct 2009 00:47:07 -0400
GGP is already on the brink - this Christmas is make or break for them - I think they would have come at the end of the line. But the only caveat being - bailouts. CREs are the next target of bailouts - so anything can ultimately happen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165820-will-fha-fall-into-the-sub-prime-trap?source=feed#comment-712223 712223
There is a lot more pain still to come on the economic and jobs front - lot more foreclosures will happen. The green shoots myth and Wall Street hype will all die its usual miserable death. You simply can't borrow or print your way to prosperity. America is the only country that still believes in this Ponzi myth.]]> Sun, 11 Oct 2009 00:32:15 -0400
There is a lot more pain still to come on the economic and jobs front - lot more foreclosures will happen. The green shoots myth and Wall Street hype will all die its usual miserable death. You simply can't borrow or print your way to prosperity. America is the only country that still believes in this Ponzi myth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164759-when-morgan-stanley-almost-died?source=feed#comment-712219 712219 Sun, 11 Oct 2009 00:21:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164717-the-v-shaped-recovery-flops-to-an-l-as-unemployment-hits-a-new-record?source=feed#comment-703210 703210
So if you take into account additional 824K we are alreday at about 10.4%. And of course there is no recovery without jobs, anything else is just a lie or an accounting gimmick. So brace for a lot more pain, meanwhile the stocks have priced in a massive V recovery - a lush garden when we don't even have any green shoots.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 02:17:40 -0400
So if you take into account additional 824K we are alreday at about 10.4%. And of course there is no recovery without jobs, anything else is just a lie or an accounting gimmick. So brace for a lot more pain, meanwhile the stocks have priced in a massive V recovery - a lush garden when we don't even have any green shoots.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164625-ticking-prime-bomb-fannie-mae-monthly-summary-august-2009?source=feed#comment-703201 703201
Fony and Fraudie are bankrupt many times over, they are simply piggy banks for the politicains - what else do you expect to come out of that kind of a system.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 01:41:40 -0400
Fony and Fraudie are bankrupt many times over, they are simply piggy banks for the politicains - what else do you expect to come out of that kind of a system.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163346-julian-robertson-on-debt-sudden-stops-and-more?source=feed#comment-703199 703199 - "lot more pain to come in US" - Agree
- "interest rates can shoot up to 15-20% IF Chinese, Japanese stop buying our debt" - Agree
- "Short commodities" - Agree
- "can't have war and tax cuts at the same time (criticism of Bush)" - Agree
- "US should go through pain if it wants to solve its structural problems" - Agree
- "Short bonds" - Disagree]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 01:32:35 -0400 - "lot more pain to come in US" - Agree
- "interest rates can shoot up to 15-20% IF Chinese, Japanese stop buying our debt" - Agree
- "Short commodities" - Agree
- "can't have war and tax cuts at the same time (criticism of Bush)" - Agree
- "US should go through pain if it wants to solve its structural problems" - Agree
- "Short bonds" - Disagree]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164697-imagine-a-17-unemployment-rate-we-re-there?source=feed#comment-703189 703189
So additional 824K losses have been estimated by BLS but for some reason the revisions will be officially announced only next Feb. That itself will contribute to .5%+ additional unemplyment.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:56:17 -0400
So additional 824K losses have been estimated by BLS but for some reason the revisions will be officially announced only next Feb. That itself will contribute to .5%+ additional unemplyment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164549-inflation-scorecard-moderation-in-all-things?source=feed#comment-703183 703183 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:41:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164590-the-economic-recovery-that-isn-t?source=feed#comment-702561 702561

On Oct 04 09:34 AM yellowhoard wrote:

> I'm a big fan Peter. But, I've got to agree with Vuke.
> The time for higher interest rates was five years ago.
> We're in a box now. Higher rates would result in a collapse of the
> entire system right now.
> I would be in favor of a massive downsizing of government on all
> levels though.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 12:38:02 -0400

On Oct 04 09:34 AM yellowhoard wrote:

> I'm a big fan Peter. But, I've got to agree with Vuke.
> The time for higher interest rates was five years ago.
> We're in a box now. Higher rates would result in a collapse of the
> entire system right now.
> I would be in favor of a massive downsizing of government on all
> levels though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164590-the-economic-recovery-that-isn-t?source=feed#comment-702085 702085
Consumers and investors are still in denial, this Christmas lights will definitely be a lot dimmer than last year - lots of jobs and home have been actually lost.

At this point we know the Keynesian stimulus has failed - clunkers and car sales are early sign, home sales in a couple of months (after 8K credit ends) will further confirm that. So lot of wasted money (ultimately to be repaid by higher taxes). Now far from having a lush garden, as priced in into stocks now, we don't even have any green shoots. Lot more job losses and other pain yet to come, so just brace yourself. Even Wall Street may get over its irrational exuberance.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 04:07:51 -0400
Consumers and investors are still in denial, this Christmas lights will definitely be a lot dimmer than last year - lots of jobs and home have been actually lost.

At this point we know the Keynesian stimulus has failed - clunkers and car sales are early sign, home sales in a couple of months (after 8K credit ends) will further confirm that. So lot of wasted money (ultimately to be repaid by higher taxes). Now far from having a lush garden, as priced in into stocks now, we don't even have any green shoots. Lot more job losses and other pain yet to come, so just brace yourself. Even Wall Street may get over its irrational exuberance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163939-case-shiller-s-recent-strength-it-s-not-just-seasonality?source=feed#comment-696379 696379
Govt support also has its limit - as ultimately who supports the Govt - it is the tax payer. So ultimately there would be a revolt - hopefully there would be one - the current policies are quickening the pace of US bankruptcy.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 22:55:10 -0400
Govt support also has its limit - as ultimately who supports the Govt - it is the tax payer. So ultimately there would be a revolt - hopefully there would be one - the current policies are quickening the pace of US bankruptcy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163561-g20-s-dominant-theme-hypocrisy?source=feed#comment-694650 694650
Yes - America needs to decrease consumption and increase savings but all programs are designed to do totally the opposite - zero APR is a major disincentive for savings, and it also acts as incentive for consumption. All overt consumption promoting programs exist on top of it - clunkers, home buyer credit etc, and many many more in the pipeline.

And of course Chinese cannot consume if they lend all their money to us -they have to lend even more now - as our needs have quadrupled.

So G-20 is just photo-op - hypocrisy and stupidity through and through - but that is what America represents now.]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:39:14 -0400
Yes - America needs to decrease consumption and increase savings but all programs are designed to do totally the opposite - zero APR is a major disincentive for savings, and it also acts as incentive for consumption. All overt consumption promoting programs exist on top of it - clunkers, home buyer credit etc, and many many more in the pipeline.

And of course Chinese cannot consume if they lend all their money to us -they have to lend even more now - as our needs have quadrupled.

So G-20 is just photo-op - hypocrisy and stupidity through and through - but that is what America represents now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162275-stimuluszilla-killed-japan-and-is-heading-our-way?source=feed#comment-682995 682995
Keynesian stimulus is just populism - politicians appear to do something - sounds appeasing. But it all leads to misallocation of capital and Govt inefficiencies simply kill everything.

All Japanese policies were criticized by us - zombie banks and even stimulus and deficits. But that is where we are going - we are supposedly smarter - have learnt from the mistakes of past. But if have learnt why do we have the same policies, and if we are smart why do we have these catastrophic problems repeatedly. Nobody has answer to that - but we always greeted with political slogans - 'American resilience will win out'.

What is our plan - bigger stimulus with money that we don't have. Since easy cheap money and debt caused the problem - we will have even easier, cheaper money and bigger debts.

We are headed towards catastrophe - our children and grand children will be enslaved by our debt. The crooks on Wall Street once again will make out like bandits - of course they will - they are aided and abetted by the politicians - it simply is oligarchy.

Ye I fully agree: "Throw the bums out in 2010. That is our best only option."]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:26:33 -0400
Keynesian stimulus is just populism - politicians appear to do something - sounds appeasing. But it all leads to misallocation of capital and Govt inefficiencies simply kill everything.

All Japanese policies were criticized by us - zombie banks and even stimulus and deficits. But that is where we are going - we are supposedly smarter - have learnt from the mistakes of past. But if have learnt why do we have the same policies, and if we are smart why do we have these catastrophic problems repeatedly. Nobody has answer to that - but we always greeted with political slogans - 'American resilience will win out'.

What is our plan - bigger stimulus with money that we don't have. Since easy cheap money and debt caused the problem - we will have even easier, cheaper money and bigger debts.

We are headed towards catastrophe - our children and grand children will be enslaved by our debt. The crooks on Wall Street once again will make out like bandits - of course they will - they are aided and abetted by the politicians - it simply is oligarchy.

Ye I fully agree: "Throw the bums out in 2010. That is our best only option."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161909-feeding-the-ducks-on-wall-street-huffpo?source=feed#comment-681081 681081
Most of the green shoot confirmation seems to come from actions in China - commodity buying, massive equity rise. China has put in an unprecedented amount of stimulus - about 20% of GDP - about 4 times US. If fundamentals of Chinese economy are so strong why would it need such a very large stimulus. And what are Chinese exports down 20/30% (despite huge commodity stock piling). And China has lost about 20-25 million jobs (by popular accounts) - if the economy is growing 8% why is it losing jobs by these huge numbers. So the numbers in China simply do not add up. China (and rest of Asia) grew only by exporting to the west, west is dead - so Asian economies have to shrink greatly, at least in the short term, then find a new growth path - internal consumption and whatever. Till then it simply is phony propaganda - based on stimulus and such.

And don't trust the market for its forecasting ability - markets are ALWAYS wrong, yes always. If markets were right we will not have these massive bubbles over and over again. Just remember markets were at all time high just 2 months before the start of this great recession. Wall Street is indeed capable of extra ordinary delusions.]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 13:58:16 -0400
Most of the green shoot confirmation seems to come from actions in China - commodity buying, massive equity rise. China has put in an unprecedented amount of stimulus - about 20% of GDP - about 4 times US. If fundamentals of Chinese economy are so strong why would it need such a very large stimulus. And what are Chinese exports down 20/30% (despite huge commodity stock piling). And China has lost about 20-25 million jobs (by popular accounts) - if the economy is growing 8% why is it losing jobs by these huge numbers. So the numbers in China simply do not add up. China (and rest of Asia) grew only by exporting to the west, west is dead - so Asian economies have to shrink greatly, at least in the short term, then find a new growth path - internal consumption and whatever. Till then it simply is phony propaganda - based on stimulus and such.

And don't trust the market for its forecasting ability - markets are ALWAYS wrong, yes always. If markets were right we will not have these massive bubbles over and over again. Just remember markets were at all time high just 2 months before the start of this great recession. Wall Street is indeed capable of extra ordinary delusions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161875-southern-california-real-estate-booming-again?source=feed#comment-680264 680264 OC) - MLS listing that I receive keep showing price falls. There was tiny surge 6/8 weeks ago - green shoots and 8K credit - that seems to be over.

Median price is not the best gauge of the market, Case-Shiller is better - lets see what numbers come out this month (they would be for 2 months ago).

Price can't rise amidst job losses - so rise if any is the typical aberration - but that seems to be the rule in America for some time now.]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 01:27:17 -0400 OC) - MLS listing that I receive keep showing price falls. There was tiny surge 6/8 weeks ago - green shoots and 8K credit - that seems to be over.

Median price is not the best gauge of the market, Case-Shiller is better - lets see what numbers come out this month (they would be for 2 months ago).

Price can't rise amidst job losses - so rise if any is the typical aberration - but that seems to be the rule in America for some time now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161815-japan-to-the-u-s-we-don-t-want-to-exclude-you-but?source=feed#comment-680243 680243
US simply can not be the policeman of the world- it is bankrupt. England, USSR, and the Roman Empire went bankrupt the exact same way - managing military outposts all over the world.

Yes rest of world will have to find an alternative to US leadership and hegemony, there will be growing/transition pains - the will get there. It will be the demise of $ - deflation, chaos of all kind to follow.

Meanwhile Fed and BHO are having a victory party.]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 00:16:28 -0400
US simply can not be the policeman of the world- it is bankrupt. England, USSR, and the Roman Empire went bankrupt the exact same way - managing military outposts all over the world.

Yes rest of world will have to find an alternative to US leadership and hegemony, there will be growing/transition pains - the will get there. It will be the demise of $ - deflation, chaos of all kind to follow.

Meanwhile Fed and BHO are having a victory party.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161653-the-recovery-will-likely-feel-like-a-recession-or-even-a-depression?source=feed#comment-679518 679518 "I disagree. The time for deficit spending is in recession." - The problem is we have been in deficits even during the supposed great booms of the recent past. If deficits was a solution to our problems - then we should not have problem to begin with.

We have just been running a Ponzi scheme here in US, running unsustainable/unpayable debts - conning the world with our reserve currency.

And don't forget the markets are always wrong - we were at a all time high just 2 months before this great recession, Wall Street is capable of extra ordinary delusions.

On Sep 15 06:58 PM chap08 wrote:

> "We are in a predicament with the economy and deficit spending and
> the last thing we need is more spending"
>
> I disagree. The time for deficit spending is in recession. I see
> your political slant in your article, so I will add this point: the
> time for surplus was the previous 8 years, but the incompetent Reps
> made sure that didn't happen. Pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical spending
> are fundamentally different.
>
> When they take their foot of the stimulus gas, it is likely that
> we will see another dip. What will happen then? Well, likely we'll
> see another round of stimulus. Ofcourse we can't afford it but that
> won't stop it happening. This further stimulus, money printing and
> the sheer volume of funds looking for a home, will all put a floor
> under the market. When the next dip comes, the market will anticipate
> the response.]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 14:34:23 -0400 "I disagree. The time for deficit spending is in recession." - The problem is we have been in deficits even during the supposed great booms of the recent past. If deficits was a solution to our problems - then we should not have problem to begin with.

We have just been running a Ponzi scheme here in US, running unsustainable/unpayable debts - conning the world with our reserve currency.

And don't forget the markets are always wrong - we were at a all time high just 2 months before this great recession, Wall Street is capable of extra ordinary delusions.

On Sep 15 06:58 PM chap08 wrote:

> "We are in a predicament with the economy and deficit spending and
> the last thing we need is more spending"
>
> I disagree. The time for deficit spending is in recession. I see
> your political slant in your article, so I will add this point: the
> time for surplus was the previous 8 years, but the incompetent Reps
> made sure that didn't happen. Pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical spending
> are fundamentally different.
>
> When they take their foot of the stimulus gas, it is likely that
> we will see another dip. What will happen then? Well, likely we'll
> see another round of stimulus. Ofcourse we can't afford it but that
> won't stop it happening. This further stimulus, money printing and
> the sheer volume of funds looking for a home, will all put a floor
> under the market. When the next dip comes, the market will anticipate
> the response.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161665-bloomberg-real-estate-expert-says-recovery-is-very-fragile?source=feed#comment-678649 678649
All these programs will end sooner or later, the organic market is not self sustaining - due to job losses and the credit crisis. Now you actually need a credit score and a down payment to buy a home.

So yes, real estate market will continue to fall - both residential and commercial. And don't waste your time listening to Bernanke that the recession is likely over, he has been wrong about everything form beginning till end.]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 02:44:19 -0400
All these programs will end sooner or later, the organic market is not self sustaining - due to job losses and the credit crisis. Now you actually need a credit score and a down payment to buy a home.

So yes, real estate market will continue to fall - both residential and commercial. And don't waste your time listening to Bernanke that the recession is likely over, he has been wrong about everything form beginning till end.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161502-will-chimerica-s-demise-take-down-global-economy?source=feed#comment-678609 678609
Yes we do have real big problem with huge and growing trade deficits - it is completely unsustainable. Either we have to export a lot more or import lot less - likely will have to do both. Exporting with our price competiveness especially in a recession is a tall order, so importing less will have to be done.

All roads are leading to a trade war, so brace yourself. And don't bother listening to BB that the recession is over. Just remember he has been wrong about everything - just before the financial markets crashed last year - he was on record to say "system was getting stable".]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 01:01:03 -0400
Yes we do have real big problem with huge and growing trade deficits - it is completely unsustainable. Either we have to export a lot more or import lot less - likely will have to do both. Exporting with our price competiveness especially in a recession is a tall order, so importing less will have to be done.

All roads are leading to a trade war, so brace yourself. And don't bother listening to BB that the recession is over. Just remember he has been wrong about everything - just before the financial markets crashed last year - he was on record to say "system was getting stable".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161452-economists-and-the-fed-differ?source=feed#comment-676967 676967
We are losing jobs, many more - likely at least half a million more in '09, no uptick in employment till end of '010 - that is my forecast. Take it or leave it.]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 03:29:08 -0400
We are losing jobs, many more - likely at least half a million more in '09, no uptick in employment till end of '010 - that is my forecast. Take it or leave it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161429-pinning-the-blame-on-the-house-republicans?source=feed#comment-676950 676950
Fannie/Freddie failed - prop up cost about $500B - they still are crippled can't make loans. So FHA has been brought on line to make risky mortgages - FHA will go under within a year.

What we have to do is fix rather replace the failed system - no one has the desire to do that. Everyone is under the mistaken notion the system that we had was great lets revive it - this is the ultimate in corruption and stupidity. What else can we expect from our totally failed economists and Fed - they simply are trying to bailout their own failed theories- debt and deficits don't matter. All of that foolishness is topped by political slogans - 'American resilience can easily overcome all this'.

All the tidbits - whether TARP was passed 3 days early or 4 days late does not matter. Alarm bells were sounded years earlier - when debt and leverage was building up, when home prices were sky rocketing – and all that was happening in broad daylight. All this was being cheered as the great America- everyone can buy a 4BR home without even a down payment - and home price double up within a few short years. You don’t have to save for retirement – your home is your saving.
The American dream has turned into an American nightmare – instead of owning a home you simply own debt now. By the time crisis precipitated it was too late- Lehman was inevitable.

And finally the direction in which the Fed is moving now - the next crisis is building - more debt, higher taxes. This must be addressed now not 2 years later, of course we will not.]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 02:34:10 -0400
Fannie/Freddie failed - prop up cost about $500B - they still are crippled can't make loans. So FHA has been brought on line to make risky mortgages - FHA will go under within a year.

What we have to do is fix rather replace the failed system - no one has the desire to do that. Everyone is under the mistaken notion the system that we had was great lets revive it - this is the ultimate in corruption and stupidity. What else can we expect from our totally failed economists and Fed - they simply are trying to bailout their own failed theories- debt and deficits don't matter. All of that foolishness is topped by political slogans - 'American resilience can easily overcome all this'.

All the tidbits - whether TARP was passed 3 days early or 4 days late does not matter. Alarm bells were sounded years earlier - when debt and leverage was building up, when home prices were sky rocketing – and all that was happening in broad daylight. All this was being cheered as the great America- everyone can buy a 4BR home without even a down payment - and home price double up within a few short years. You don’t have to save for retirement – your home is your saving.
The American dream has turned into an American nightmare – instead of owning a home you simply own debt now. By the time crisis precipitated it was too late- Lehman was inevitable.

And finally the direction in which the Fed is moving now - the next crisis is building - more debt, higher taxes. This must be addressed now not 2 years later, of course we will not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161308-natural-gas-has-spiked-60-since-labor-day-why?source=feed#comment-676835 676835 US supply has increased - new rigs etc, plus LNG terminals and ships have come online.

In nay case UNG is the worst way to play nat gas - buy futures yourself.]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 00:08:06 -0400 US supply has increased - new rigs etc, plus LNG terminals and ships have come online.

In nay case UNG is the worst way to play nat gas - buy futures yourself.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161189-obama-is-wrong-to-impose-punitive-tariffs-on-chinese-made-tires?source=feed#comment-676160 676160
US has to get back to increasing its manufacturing base - we simply cannot shuffle paper around (as in Wall Street) and flip burgers (services) - that is just wage stagnation - leads to lower standards of living - we are very much heading that way.

It is not just about unions it is the jobs stupid. What part of job losses do free market proponents don't see. Where do you see job growth drivers - green? That is just a pipe dream.

Unregulated free trade has failed and we lost - our Trillion $ deficits and increasing is ample proof.

Tires are just a symptom, tip of the iceberg - there are many other products where the same problem exists- we have lost all our industries - textiles, electronics, now autos on extended life support.

Does anyone think you can export stuff to China easily – the bureaucracy out there would kill you, price and margins are crippling. Only way to sell out there is to manufacture there – that is what all manufacturers are forced to do (like GM etc). That only leads to Chinese jobs, not jobs here.

Last 20/30 years there was phony prosperity in US amidst huge trade deficits – simply propped by asset bubbles and unsustainable debt. So the foolish economists concluded free trade must be good. But even after the phony economy has collapsed (lot more yet to come) - the lesson should have been learnt - but unfortunately fools never learn.

Trade has to be a zero sum game - unfortunately that has not worked that way. The only solution is either trade barriers or accept lower standards of living - somewhere between what we have now and current Chinese. Are the free market proponents ready for that? Likely not.]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 14:15:16 -0400
US has to get back to increasing its manufacturing base - we simply cannot shuffle paper around (as in Wall Street) and flip burgers (services) - that is just wage stagnation - leads to lower standards of living - we are very much heading that way.

It is not just about unions it is the jobs stupid. What part of job losses do free market proponents don't see. Where do you see job growth drivers - green? That is just a pipe dream.

Unregulated free trade has failed and we lost - our Trillion $ deficits and increasing is ample proof.

Tires are just a symptom, tip of the iceberg - there are many other products where the same problem exists- we have lost all our industries - textiles, electronics, now autos on extended life support.

Does anyone think you can export stuff to China easily – the bureaucracy out there would kill you, price and margins are crippling. Only way to sell out there is to manufacture there – that is what all manufacturers are forced to do (like GM etc). That only leads to Chinese jobs, not jobs here.

Last 20/30 years there was phony prosperity in US amidst huge trade deficits – simply propped by asset bubbles and unsustainable debt. So the foolish economists concluded free trade must be good. But even after the phony economy has collapsed (lot more yet to come) - the lesson should have been learnt - but unfortunately fools never learn.

Trade has to be a zero sum game - unfortunately that has not worked that way. The only solution is either trade barriers or accept lower standards of living - somewhere between what we have now and current Chinese. Are the free market proponents ready for that? Likely not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161143-canary-in-the-gold-mine?source=feed#comment-675328 675328
$- As regards dollar - there is no substitute - Yen, Euro - those economies are doing as bad as US. Pound and RMB do not have a chance at all.

Bond market- I agree with Peter's point: "central bankers themselves are the biggest bond buyers and are in effect ‘vigilantes-in-chief." We have seen all these institutions worldwide are equally dumb and simply work as a herd. So bond market action is no conformation/indication of anything. Even though it likely is a much better indicator than the equity markets -which is full of completely clueless idiots.

"reduced consumer demand due to unemployment will keep inflation pressures at bay for the foreseeable future" - I do not agree with this. We already can see this prices of all goods have fallen despite unprecedented multi-trillion $ stimulus worldwide. Everything from home prices to autos, to oil, nat gas everything is down. My theory is - Fed can print money but it does not have an effective mechanism to distribute that money. 'Helicopters' can be used to drop money to financial institutions - but if they don't lend - it just stays there. That is what we have been seeing for over an year now - consumer credit is shrinking a lot - the classic liquidity trap. Other way to transmit money is through jobs and rising wages - they are steeply falling. Govt tax rebates and such programs - transmit only a small amount of money - cannot offset the all the wage losses.
I think the world has too much surplus capacity, created to satisfy the gluttonous US demand. As long as surplus capacity exits - it would lead to price wars (beggar-thy-neighbor) - so inflation would be kept at bay.

Gold Yes - you should definitely have it as a part of your portfolio.]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 02:46:51 -0400
$- As regards dollar - there is no substitute - Yen, Euro - those economies are doing as bad as US. Pound and RMB do not have a chance at all.

Bond market- I agree with Peter's point: "central bankers themselves are the biggest bond buyers and are in effect ‘vigilantes-in-chief." We have seen all these institutions worldwide are equally dumb and simply work as a herd. So bond market action is no conformation/indication of anything. Even though it likely is a much better indicator than the equity markets -which is full of completely clueless idiots.

"reduced consumer demand due to unemployment will keep inflation pressures at bay for the foreseeable future" - I do not agree with this. We already can see this prices of all goods have fallen despite unprecedented multi-trillion $ stimulus worldwide. Everything from home prices to autos, to oil, nat gas everything is down. My theory is - Fed can print money but it does not have an effective mechanism to distribute that money. 'Helicopters' can be used to drop money to financial institutions - but if they don't lend - it just stays there. That is what we have been seeing for over an year now - consumer credit is shrinking a lot - the classic liquidity trap. Other way to transmit money is through jobs and rising wages - they are steeply falling. Govt tax rebates and such programs - transmit only a small amount of money - cannot offset the all the wage losses.
I think the world has too much surplus capacity, created to satisfy the gluttonous US demand. As long as surplus capacity exits - it would lead to price wars (beggar-thy-neighbor) - so inflation would be kept at bay.

Gold Yes - you should definitely have it as a part of your portfolio.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161126-is-risk-dead-or-are-we-experiencing-a-bear-market-junk-rally?source=feed#comment-674059 674059 Sun, 13 Sep 2009 01:31:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160934-populist-politics-shouldn-t-be-driving-financial-reform?source=feed#comment-673675 673675
Interesting comments came from Bank of China Ltd. Vice President Zhu Min- “Bankers on Wall Street are suffering from “over confidence” and are “myopic” in the face of a continuing financial crisis,
“You go to Wall Street, the people feel the crisis never happened,” Zhu said in a Bloomberg Television interview today in Dalian, China. “It’s not only over-confidence, it’s over- myopic. This is too much.” Zhu said that the financial crisis, which intensified last year after the bankruptcy in September of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., seems “not over yet.”
‘Cliff Drop’ - “It’s sort of stabilized from cliff drop,” Zhu said. “But the real economic crisis has just started.”]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 14:21:39 -0400
Interesting comments came from Bank of China Ltd. Vice President Zhu Min- “Bankers on Wall Street are suffering from “over confidence” and are “myopic” in the face of a continuing financial crisis,
“You go to Wall Street, the people feel the crisis never happened,” Zhu said in a Bloomberg Television interview today in Dalian, China. “It’s not only over-confidence, it’s over- myopic. This is too much.” Zhu said that the financial crisis, which intensified last year after the bankruptcy in September of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., seems “not over yet.”
‘Cliff Drop’ - “It’s sort of stabilized from cliff drop,” Zhu said. “But the real economic crisis has just started.”]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161020-greenspan-s-fairly-pronounced-recovery?source=feed#comment-672991 672991
All these bubbles need a major catalyst - someone in authority or someone with credibility to cheer it on - Greenspan fulfilled that role very eagerly.


On Sep 11 05:51 PM Marc Chandler wrote:

> Greenspan was just my straw man as a way to discuss the likelihood
> of stronger growth in the US. I think though that you both exaggerate
> Greenspan's significance. He is but one man. He did not force banks
> to take on ninja loans, he did not sanction the leverage of the financial
> system. He warned as other international officials did that investors
> were mispricing risk. I suspect that most people who would be considered
> as candidates would not have done much differently. My point here
> is not to defend Alan Greenspan but to suggest that the real problem
> is systemic not personal. The US challenges are much bigger and more
> significant than one man.
>
> Moreover, the US might have provided the spark, but the dry kindling
> was globally distributed. It was a global crisis and some countries
> that had lower rates than the US did not have a housing bubble and
> some countries with higher rates than the US had a larger bubble.
> The key source was the surplus savings and the financial incentive
> structure.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:01:27 -0400
All these bubbles need a major catalyst - someone in authority or someone with credibility to cheer it on - Greenspan fulfilled that role very eagerly.


On Sep 11 05:51 PM Marc Chandler wrote:

> Greenspan was just my straw man as a way to discuss the likelihood
> of stronger growth in the US. I think though that you both exaggerate
> Greenspan's significance. He is but one man. He did not force banks
> to take on ninja loans, he did not sanction the leverage of the financial
> system. He warned as other international officials did that investors
> were mispricing risk. I suspect that most people who would be considered
> as candidates would not have done much differently. My point here
> is not to defend Alan Greenspan but to suggest that the real problem
> is systemic not personal. The US challenges are much bigger and more
> significant than one man.
>
> Moreover, the US might have provided the spark, but the dry kindling
> was globally distributed. It was a global crisis and some countries
> that had lower rates than the US did not have a housing bubble and
> some countries with higher rates than the US had a larger bubble.
> The key source was the surplus savings and the financial incentive
> structure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161047-current-market-about-to-lose-momentum-gundlach?source=feed#comment-672788 672788 " Bankers on Wall Street are suffering from “over confidence” and are “myopic” in the face of a continuing financial crisis"
“You go to Wall Street, the people feel the crisis never happened,” “It’s not only over-confidence, it’s over- myopic. This is too much.”
Zhu said that the financial crisis, which intensified last year after the bankruptcy in September of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., seems “not over yet.”
‘Cliff Drop’
“It’s sort of stabilized from cliff drop,” Zhu said. “But the real economic crisis has just started.”

Yes the real economic crisis has just started - debt repayments with interest, all the poor investments that Govt is making now. To get repaid on the GM investment the GM stock value has to go upto $67B- much higher than GMs peak of $57B in 2008.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:32:04 -0400 " Bankers on Wall Street are suffering from “over confidence” and are “myopic” in the face of a continuing financial crisis"
“You go to Wall Street, the people feel the crisis never happened,” “It’s not only over-confidence, it’s over- myopic. This is too much.”
Zhu said that the financial crisis, which intensified last year after the bankruptcy in September of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., seems “not over yet.”
‘Cliff Drop’
“It’s sort of stabilized from cliff drop,” Zhu said. “But the real economic crisis has just started.”

Yes the real economic crisis has just started - debt repayments with interest, all the poor investments that Govt is making now. To get repaid on the GM investment the GM stock value has to go upto $67B- much higher than GMs peak of $57B in 2008.]]>