SB-tiger

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    • Thu Jul 3rd 03:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As UnitedHealth Lowers Guidance, Stock Looks Cheap
      UNH will become cheaper, HMO/Medicare/Adv-Med sector is not in favor.

      Avoid
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    • Tue Jun 24th 20:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Investing: Only 'Dead' for the Dumb Money
      Valuations are important where you invest. The economy and profits may grow but if the stcoks are at bubble levels - you may want to stay away. Chinese stocks are a very good example.

      Disclosure - short FXI (FXP), XLF (SKF), IYR (SRS), SPY(UYG)
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    • Sun Jun 22nd 14:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Markets: A Ton of Doubt Calls for Caution
      Lot of data, but I could not glean any information, theme or conclusion.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 15th 15:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      UnitedHealth Group: Dominant Industry Leader on Sale
      United is not doing well. It is losing business - several big member (employers) have deserted it, its provider network is shrinking. Getting a very bad rap for customer service, claim delays. All result of bad mergers etc. It grew with mergers- dying with it. Its valuation/profitabilit... would come significantly down. Will not recommend buying (or holding) UNH.
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    • Fri May 9th 00:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: How Long Will the Inflation Respite Last?
      Chinese economy has many structural problems - typical for a rapidly growing economy and an emerging stock market. Inflation and price controls are major issues - as the author correctly points. We have already seen the Shanghai stock market bubble burst.

      So where do we go from here - FXI? FXI is H-Shares so it is more insulated than the Chinese A-Share market which has many problems including the critical issue of divesting of shares by companies and institutions. Buying shares of the likes of PTR is essentially paying subsidy to Chinese oil consumers, because that is what PTR (and SNP) do.

      I am bearish on FXI, have FXP.
      View article »
    • Sun May 4th 13:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Data: Crybabies and Deceivers
      The housing market problems are very simple and glaringly obvious. There is no need to look at Case-Shiller or NAR. It simply is Affordability. The income has not kept pace of home price increases in the last few years. (if incomes rose in proportion we would have astronomical inflation). Only way to beat the system was teaser rates and ARMs, with the HOPE that prices will keep rising and the home will somehow pay for itself – by refinancing or taking out home equity to pay mortgage. I simply don’t understand the math – more you borrow the higher your payments would be. People were actually upgrading too!!
      All the demographic data – population increase etc is irrelevant. You may need and want to buy a house but if you can’t afford – you simply can’t buy. Unless of course you start getting some irrational exuberance help from the likes of Greenspan and of course Mozilo (CFC). Down payment to buy was lower than to rent. One important tid-bit of fact is 18% of subprime loans that originated in 2006 never made a single payment. There is all this talk about resets and buyers duped by complicated loan terms. If you can’t pay a teaser loan – what can you pay? This should tell how bad things were –the entire system colluded– realtors, mortgage brokers, banks, Wall Street (securitization), the rating agencies (they should be sued and banned), and security buyers all over the world. Buyers are getting blamed – but they were being enticed by free lunch, and they had nothing to lose. If you have no credit anyway – what do you lose? They were ‘asked to lie’ about their income – they did.
      Home prices always had a close historical relationship with:
      a) Inflation –but last few years despite inflation being low home prices zoomed. Why? There is no free lunch
      b) Median income – median income did not grow (much at all) – but home prices zoomed. How do you pay?
      c) Rents – rents and real estate have a close relationship. Rents maintained historical trends but home prices zoomed. Better to rent than buy!
      All these distortions were made possible by speculators, and cheer leaders like Greenspan- dawn of a new era- “Financial innovation is changing everything, old rules no longer apply”. (He had similar things to say during the .com bubble – “productivity, new economy”)
      Home prices are sticky by nature – it takes a long time to consummate a sale – appraisals and loans etc. Foreclosures take 6 months and more. Also the political meddling that is going on. Home prices will take a long time to correct – likely would (should) over-correct. The main reason would be risk aversion amongst buyers and banks – rightfully so, also lack of speculators. All the talk of bottom etc has no basis at all – long way to go – likely to ’02-‘03 levels.
      Advice to would be buyers – patience.
      Advice to sellers – bite the bullet - sell and get out, time will not be to your advantage.
      View article »
    • Thu May 1st 10:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Schering Now - Cramer's Lightning Round (4/29/08)
      Cramer is a bubble maker. His MO is talk up the stocks - he has a big pulpit and great following to make it work. He is so often so wrong, he gets away by conveniently ignoring bad calls. How much he pumped the likes of CROX, LULU etc. Albeit he has made great calls on Ag and infrastructure, but once again pumping the stocks to extremes.
      At the end of the day all of us have the choice to ignore him.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 13:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ag Stocks Could Have Steep Pullbacks
      If stocks go parabloic SELL. We have seen this over and over again.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 22:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday's Rally: Just a Short-Squeeze?
      Lot of bad news is still to come in financials, last week’s rally notwithstanding. Bear markets can (and do) have great rallies. Much more write downs/re-capitalizatio... etc yet happen in Financials - the problems are spreading to other parts of their business. All banks are actually painting a bleak picture. So where the optimism comes from beats me. Of course for reasons of optimism we have bubbles. The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from it.

      Thinking there is value in financials is trying to catch the proverbial 'falling knife'. The so called smart sovereign wealth funds (and lot of hedge funds) have been proven so very very wrong recently. So just stay away, or if you have the stomach just short - SKF. I am short and sleep comfortably.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 00:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Citigroup Downgrades PetroChina to 'Sell'
      China is communist Govt. controlled capitalism. Despite IPOs etc- the Govt. owns huge majority of shares in almost all the big companies. So the Govt. gains by these IPOs – it generates money for them. I don’t know what the lockup rules etc are there for these IPOs – so someone likely could be making a lot of money. The market lacks transparency, in addition to all the complications and confusion due to all the classes of shares ‘A’, ‘H’, ‘B’, red-chips,…
      Yes it could be Govt. controlled scam. I have lost some money in China, I am totally wary of the market.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 00:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Considerations on Investing in China
      1. Chinese stocks were in a bubble that has burst. There was some kind of expectation (misplaced) that the Chinese Govt. would somehow intervene and prop up the market. The reason always was cited ‘Chinese image before the Olympics’. That whole concept is of course is debunked. Now- today (again) Shanghai hit a new 52 week low, down almost 50% from its highs. Likely more pain to come.
      2. Chinese Accounting: There is reason to be suspicious – the general fear of the unknown. We have not yet seen any specific example of bad accounting. We (in US) have had our share of accounting and related scandals, so we should not be pointing fingers at China. Jim Rogers, (the famous investor and author of Bull in China) had once commented (paraphrased) “If you get caught in a scandal in China – you would be summarily shot dead – that puts a lot of fear in Chinese Managers”.
      3. Chinese Pollution etc- I had visited China for a few weeks recently – I did not find any bad pollution. Just lot of economic activity – construction and cranes everywhere (really everywhere). Chinese economic growth is real and would last for some time – it has 1.5 Trillion Dollars in reserves for every possible rainy day.
      4. Chinese Negatives – it is communist country, the govt. controls the economy. They change rules over night and profits vanish. Increasing or decreasing subsidies, export controls etc. The Chinese oil companies (like Petro China etc) can’t make profits because of price controls. Today PTR has gone below its IPO price, Buffet was a smart seller – even though he sold much below the peak.

      Beware of Chinese stocks for now, play Taiwan or maybe Hong Kong.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 14th 18:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      LDK, First Solar Will Continue to Rebound
      Solar stocks are a bigger bubble than even .com. You have an opportunity now to sell out. Get out and stay out (for a long time).

      There is a difference between good business (and technology) and a good stock. These stocks are horrible.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 13th 20:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up
      I couldn't fully undersatnd the arithmetic and the fine points the author is trying to make. However I have used the double short ETFs -SRS, FXP, SKF a lot recently to may advantage.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 13th 15:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      After GE's Miss, Who’s Next?
      Results for financials are essentially managed - write downs, Level-3, etc. Financials still should be in the kitchen sink mode - so large write downs shouldn’t be surprising. How the market reacts is unknown - the markets have held up pretty well despite the impending gloom. Whether the C, MER etc crash to the indicated levels is anybody's guess (speculation)- however the trend is definitely downwards. I am short.
      Infrastructure is another story - good or bad results from CAT and the like notwithstanding. It is all about sector rotation - investors have the money and have to at least some part of it somewhere. Infrastructure, commodities, energy etc is a very saleable story for now. Recommend buying on pullbacks.
      View article »
    • Sat Apr 12th 22:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GE: Immeltdown?
      GE has done nothing, unlikely will do anything for a long time – conglomerates just don't work. Stay away.
      However GEs miss comes up on top of Alcoa and UPS- just about all the bell weathers in a week. Big trouble ahead for all. Shallow recession is out the window, brace for long painful downturn.
      View article »
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