SB-tiger

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    • Sun Apr 6th 18:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Accounting Antics Lift I-Bank Earnings - Barron's
      Yes, Barron's article does not look at both sides of the argument. Both Markdowns and Markups will happen in the future- curently they are being marked to market or hope or whatever.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 23rd 17:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving

      Freddie/Fannie – how can you have lower capital requirements when the risks have risen. A totally ridiculous idea, this would backfire putting all tax payers on the hook. The problem with housing is – it is un-affordable. Housing prices must be allowed to come down, but somehow everyone talks about supporting the prices. Lots of mortgage related write downs and bankruptcies and foreclosures are yet to come.

      Fed actions are all to support the markets – a very mis-guided concept, a hangover from the days of Greenspan. Fed must allow the markets to adjust. They keep pandering to Wall Street – losing whatever little credibility they have.

      Deleveraging is the next phenomena. The super huge volatility must be causing lots of losses to hedge funds, etc. There would be major unwinds, we could see the likes of Aug 17th Quant unwind. Major difference now- market sentiment is strongly bearish and Fed is almost out of ammo.

      I would suggest extreme caution - both long and short. Predicting a 1000 point down day - one of these days (or weeks). That may present opportunities- Tech and Infrastructure would be my recommendations. Totally stay away from likes of Financials.
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    • Sun Mar 23rd 14:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Equity Markets: Cautious Optimisim and Nagging Pessimism
      I think the indexes have a way to go (down). The indexes were earlier held up by the commodities, despite major selloffs in financials etc (earlier). Now when commodities have fallen, albeit by only a tiny amount (yet), the financials have taken off – so the indexes are not paining the correct picture (401-K pain). Fall in commodities is a major plus for the markets - commodity prices were in the bubble/speculative zone - totally disconnected from reality. Speculators always need a story to sell - China/India, no more oil,…. With a global slowdown commodity demand would diminish, just remember prices are set at the margin. So if demand decreases by lets say 5% - commodity prices can fall 30-40% which is a plausible scenario.
      Banks etc would benefit from low Fed rates - however the business would shrink - less loans (less lendable money) and much higher risk aversion. Write downs also have ways to go - latest rumors around Merrill, Credit Suisse, BofA etc. Also the weekend negative outlook comments by S&P on LEH and GS.
      I subscribe to the theory of a major selloff one of these days (or weeks) - a thousand point down day. Wall Street has been able to avoid it (unlike every other market) due to market intervention by the Fed on each occasion. Despite several many clever moves by the Fed, it likely is running out of ammo. With net money coming out of mutual funds for 10th month in a row (a new record) - the sentiment is definitely bearish. It may turn out to be contrarian indicator - I don't buy that.

      The market will have to find its level. My opinion is cautious pessimism.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 21st 00:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Visa: Already Priced to Perfection
      At about 50 its valuation PE & PEG will be comparable with MA. By some (lots) measure MA itself may be overvalued at > 200. If MA should be at 200 then Visa should be around at 50.
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    • Thu Mar 20th 23:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Citigroup: The Great Unwind Has Begun
      Totally agree with the unwind theory.

      Banks etc will deleverage and be conservative about investments and lending. It would lead to contraction - markets would come down.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 20th 23:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As Alt A Mortgages Breakdown, Ultrashort Financial Not So Cool Anymore
      Financials will go way down- mortgage resets have not even begun. Lot of writedowns and blow ups still to come. UBS, MER are on the deck Monday.

      SKF double short XLF.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 20th 22:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Burst Bubble? Commodities' Long-Term Story Remains Intact
      Commodity is good long term story, however we have the speculator unwind. Commodity markets are very very small as compared to equity markets - speculators can drive them up very easily. That is what was happening last few months. Now banks are asking hedge funds to deleverage (calling back loans). So the bubble prices that were rercently seen in oil, gold, Ag etc are gone for some time now. All these china/India demand stories extremely over blown.

      Wait for major pullback and play long term.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 20th 22:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Visa: Already Priced to Perfection
      Visa is overvalued at $64 as compared to MA at $200. Most of the comments are going by the unit value of $200 of MA that is nonsense. You have to go by EPS - Visa has issued too many shares so its unit value is lower $64, which itself is too high.
      Visa would be a good stock at 50 (not 64).
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 20th 22:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bear Stearns: Why It's Safe to Bet Against Joe Lewis
      The option that JPM has to buy 20% of Bear stock at $2 is outrageous. Either Alan Schwartz had a gun on his head or he literally sold out. Extremely stupid of him- utterly disgraceful. He has no clue about negotiations. He should have opted for bankruptcy "if we go down we will take everyone with us". Fed, Treasury and JPM would have negotiated.
      Lawyers should sue Alan for complete sell out.
      Joe Lewis should fight for bankruptcy - what is there to lose. What is the difference between $ 2 and 0 - 98% loss vs. 100% loss.

      This is bailout of JPM and other bond holders - nobody is characterizing it that way. JPM is being handed Bear on a platter, Fed is financing and guaranteeing the deal.
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 19th 22:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Unseen Value in Sears' Brands
      Will - are you opinioning that Sears would/should make money by becoming a landlord by sub-letting. If that be the case I would disagree. Sears is a bad reatiler, I don't even consider going inside the stores.
      Selling brands, sub-letting, etc are low margin and terminal strategies. From an equity investor stand point I would not think it is a smart idea. There ought to be easier and better ways to make money.
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 19th 00:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Was That a Short-Covering Rally?
      It was part short covering, part Fed inspired. But most of all it would prove to be bear market sucker rally. We had so many of them in the last 6 months. Lot of bad news still to come and Fed has run out of ammo.

      Will short when the euphoria dies in a day or two.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 02:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will the Agriculture Boom Last?
      Agri prices have shot up due to major famine and crop failure in Australia this year, a major wheat exporter. Unlikely Australia will have bad crop two yers in row.
      Next is the corn/ethanol mess in US. US is a freemrket economy - the ethanol stupidity will ultimately stop.

      Much is said about China-India demand - both countires are not only self sufficient but are actually exporters of food.

      So the Agri boom will be short lived - like so many commodity booms.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 02:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      $200 Oil Is a Very Real Possibility
      Current oil prices are being driven by the falling dollar and speculation, not supply issues. Dollar will stablize at some point - when Fed stops printing money.
      Prices are set at the margin -the oncoming US & Euro recession will further dent deamand then oil prices should stablize likely will fall.

      Dollar is the key unfortunately no end in sight.

      Tighten your belts and hold onto your jobs.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 15th 20:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did the Fed's Move Prevent a Stock Market Panic?
      At this point Fed bailout is the only option - to prevent ripple effects and general confidence. However the situation should not have been allowed to develop into this. This has been coming - mostly due to bad monetary policies and very poor regulation. Actually Greenspan was the cheer leader of all this 'financial innovation' madness and had blessed all the SIVs and other acronyms.

      May Bear rest in peace.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 15th 00:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tracking Jim Cramer's Performance: January 2007 Stock Picks
      Cramer has a new and contradictory idea everyday. Oneday he is on horsemen, next day he is off. One day he his for defensive stocks next day he is on Ag. (Ag has been a great call). One day he is for American stocks next day he is strictly only for Brazilian.
      He is simply a bubble maker - CROX, LULU, UA,... - no sensible stock picker would be recommending these stocks at the levels he did. His strategy is buy high sell higher - that would never for any at-home investor. He talks up the stocks abusing his pulpit.

      His picks may have worked in a bullish market but that is all over. The market going forward would be hard grind - not for the likes of Cramer.

      Sell Cramer.
      View article »
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