The Next Bull Market Is 4-8 Months Away [View article]
Overall stock market is way overpriced to further go up - unless we have another super bubble.
Current S&P operating earnings top down consensus forecasts are $43 (and Bottoms up $54). Based on even $54 - it is a PE of 16.7 - way too high. Economy is not doing well (even as per the Fed) - so we should not be expecting any significant upward revisions in earnings.
To get a perspective here are historical PEs: S&P PE average 1936-08 - 16 S&P PE average 1960-08 - 17.1 L10 PE average 1960-08 - 16.9 Bear Market PEs - 1974-84 - Average: 9.47 (high 12.4, low 7.3) Bear Market PEs - 1948-53- Average: 8.4 (high 11.0, low 5.9)
The Next Bull Market Is 4-8 Months Away [View article]
Current S&P operating earnings top down consensus forecasts are $43 (and Bottoms up $54). Based on even $54 - it is a PE of 16.7 - way too high. Economy is not doing well (even as per the Fed) - so we should not be expecting any significant upward revisions in earnings.
To get a perspective here are historical PEs:
S&P PE average 1936-08 - 16
S&P PE average 1960-08 - 17.1
L10 PE average 1960-08 - 16.9
Bear Market PEs - 1974-84 - Average: 9.47 (high 12.4, low 7.3)
Bear Market PEs - 1948-53- Average: 8.4 (high 11.0, low 5.9)