Fighting Yoda

Potash and Agrium: Possible Agriculture Shorts?

For all commodity bulls this should be an apt lesson - we had an unsustainable bubble that burst, commodity demand and prices fall in a recession. I think Ag and fertilizer prices will fall a lot more - there simply is too much supply, despite huge production cuts.

Potash's Negative Price Implications

All commodities are under pressure especially the bulk commodities like iron ore, fertilizers, oil etc. They are harder and costlier to store - China can't keep stockpiling them. For all these prices will come under even more pressue - there simply is very low demand - the bubble has burst.

Agrium Shares Are Ripe for Growth - Barron's

The opposite of now trading near $40 from a high of $113; now trading at $40 up from recent lows of $23.

I think commodities should be avoided in a recessionary deflationary environment.

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

The commodity bubble has burst. The valuations are based on current future price of the commodity. The prices are coming down rapidly - share prices are following.

Commodity prices are very cyclical. On the up move all kinds of stories are written - Chinese protein intake, world population growth,....But we know as demand increases supply quickly follows - the glut will crash the prices. There is no peak supply story for fertilizers.

This bubble was created by the hedge funds and the Wall Street marketing machine, they made their quick buck. Lot of gullible investors are now left holding the baby and dreaming.

With the deep recession and the great unwind on hand beware of commodities. These are the classic falling knives – they may not just cut your hands the big ones may actually behead you.

No position in fertilizers, out look very bearish.