Fighting Yoda

Rethinking the Baltic Dry Index

I don't pay much credence to BDI - it only represents bulk cargo shipping rates - simply demand/supply of bulk cargo ships on a day today basis, rather than a trend in economic activity. These ships have their own supply pattern new ships come on line - based on ships ordered long time ago, and lot of current ships coming in and out of service (based on owner strategy).

When BDI went up it was simply a rebound from extreme panic lows, and of course buoyed by China commodity stock piling. I think those patterns are over - new trends would be lower; the index is down 30% from recent highs.