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Lilguy

Lilguy
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  • Panera Or Chipotle: Where Should An Investor Dine? [View article]
    I still prefer burritos to bagels....
    Dec 27 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The True Genius Of Tesla [View article]
    Not shady, but a bad business practice by Tesla and a risky investment for buyers.
    Dec 20 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The True Genius Of Tesla [View article]
    Indeed, an attorney friend of mine did that (commingling) and ended up disbarred.

    It's a bad business practice at best--and it can be a career and business killer.
    Dec 20 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The True Genius Of Tesla [View article]
    Alpha--Even if there were 1,000, that would mean about one for every 4,000 square miles in the US--forget the rest of North America.

    Can you make it from station 1 to station 2?
    Dec 20 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shifting U.S. Demographics: Investing In Luxury Brands Long Term Makes Sense [View article]
    The argument made here is also a strong one for investing in the very low-end retailers, the Walmart & Dollar Stores end of the spectrum. The issue for them remains margin as volumes grow. The issue for luxury retailers (including the ones never seen as mentioned above) is less volume (fewer customers) as margins grow.

    I think it is more likely that household incomes will move south rather than north.
    Dec 18 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Long-Term Yields Rise In 2013? [View article]
    This outlook is more aggressive (rates going higher) than I expect although I don't disagree with the basic arguments. I suspect that our economy will not accelerate as either Congress does nothing (it's usual course) or kicks in some degree of austerity to address the debt issue.

    So, if I were to put a value on it, I'd say maybe a quarter percent increase in LT bond interest rates by the end of 2013.
    Dec 18 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks rebound from sizable early losses as the word "optimistic" escapes John Boehner's lips during a press briefing. The House Speaker says he's willing to put revenues on the table if they can be accompanied by spending cuts. The other side: Erskine Bowles tells the WSJ the WH is flexible on the level of top tax rates. S&P 500 -0.2%[View news story]
    Blah, blah, blah, blah, . . . .

    SHOW ME THE BEEF!
    Nov 28 10:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proven Stock Screens Earn 20%+ Annual Returns [View article]
    Before you get too hopped up on Zack's, read this Vanguard report:
    http://bit.ly/Tghhza

    If you have a short attention span, just look at this graphic from the Vanguard report:
    http://bit.ly/SlZnOp
    Nov 26 05:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy Stocks Again [View article]
    Re the AAII survey: Being "bearish" is the same thing as being "fearful"--even being highly bearish as the AAII survey reports.

    ...And I wouldn't be surprised if the market is up a year from now, but it's likely to fall further first.
    Nov 16 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy Stocks Again [View article]
    With volatility and volume so low, I don't think there is much "fear" in the mark, just a fairly reasonable wariness by traders/ investors.

    Note: I don't often use "reasonable" and "traders/investors" in the same sentence! Maybe I'm wrong here too!
    Nov 16 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy Stocks Again [View article]
    I think you may be premature in this call. I would suspect that a "fiscal cliff" crisis resolution (or not--such as kicking the can down the road) will result in a substantial additional market drop ("sell on the news..."). Moreover, stocks still appear to be over-priced based on P/E ratios and future guidance. And the almost certain end of the discounted capital gains tax still hasn't been priced in so far as I can tell.

    I'm holding on to my bonds--mostly munis--until some of the smoke clears, probably early next year.
    Nov 16 09:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How will we know when the bull market is finally coming to an end? The top identifying indicators Ned Davis uses fall into four major categories: valuation, sentiment, market breadth, interest rates. Despite “a number of things about this market that concern me as a risk manager," particularly excessive sentiment, he still “leans bullish.”  [View news story]
    It'll keep going up . . . because I haven't bought into it yet.

    When I buy, sell!
    Apr 16 10:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home prices used to count in inflation measures, until 1983. So the recent run-up to the housing bubble didn't show up - and neither are today's falling prices. Floyd Norris charts an alternate inflation index that may show why core measures may be missing the mark when it comes to bubbly housing.  [View news story]
    Many stupid things have been done to minimize the CPI calculation over the years--maybe none worse than the notion of "hedonic equivalence"--but I don't think removing home prices was one of them.

    In this regard, I think BBRO above has it about right: People THOUGHT they were wealthier because the value of their homes was rising, and banksters & their ilk were quite willing to lend anything to anyone on these hokey home values, so people borrowed and spent like they were millionaires and literally didn't save a cent toward the end of the bubble.
    Apr 2 10:00 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Further leakage at Fukushima, Middle East unrest, ugly housing numbers, rising prices of food and gasoline, declining consumer confidence... yet stocks march ever higher. What happened to the fear?  [View news story]
    Hey, it's the end of the quarter (tomorrow). Gotta get booked up or I'll look bad. . .

    ...and prices go up.
    Mar 29 08:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With the situation "deteriorating," the military says airstrikes have failed to loosen Gaddafi's siege of  Misrata. The city faces a humanitarian emergency as loyalist forces cut off water, electricity, food, and medical supplies, take control of hospitals, and position snipers throughout the town.  [View news story]
    I don't violently disagree with you, but "Qaddafi must go" is not a bad idea.
    --He was responsible for the death of several American troops in a terrorist bombing in Berlin in 1986(?).
    --His intel service sabotaged PanAm 103, killing more than 100 Americans and several hundred people all together, in one of the most costly acts of aerial terrorism in history (& the greatest to its time).
    --He was building a substantial WMD capability, eliminating it (apparently) when the pressure from the US & allies became too great. I'm not sure he hasn't started again--and he does have stores of mustard gas per press reports.

    Those terrorism and WMD programs, not to mention his current genocide on his own people, are pretty strong arguments that removing him from power one way or another would substantially serve America's vital national security interests.
    Mar 24 04:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
309 Comments
800 Likes