Lilguy

Total Rating:
+1 / -1

50 Comments

    • Sat Aug 16th 10:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Believe the Lies: Ride the Bank Stocks Bull
      Does the "bull" in the title of this article refer to the financials' market direction or the incessant spin from banking CEOs?

      I'm not in financials and won't be for quite awhile--that is, after the truth of the nearly insolvent financial sector slowly emerges.
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 18th 09:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wells Fargo Leaves Much Uncertainty in Wake of Latest Earnings
      I have no interest in financials--long, short, or sideways--and I think that Mr. Lathrop makes an important point: The banks are finding increasingly glib ways to mask their ever-growing bad debts.

      If memory serves, WFC changed its standard for non-performing mortgages from 120 days to 180 days of non-payment for this quarterly report. It cuts the writedowns for the moment, but what a colossal writedown they'll have to report next quarter--unless they find another cute accounting trick to hide reality.

      They are really putting lipstick on the pig. I can't wait to hear what cute ideas C used to reduce its writedowns and losses below analysts' expectations. Ultimately, the lies will all come home to roost.

      View article »
    • Tue Jul 1st 16:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The 'Crisis' in Venture Capital
      You mean disclosure of investment information required by S-O, that is, transparency, inhibits venture capital raising?? If so, I don't want to be any party of venture capital investment.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 1st 16:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Blogonomics: Market Manipulation?
      Could the comments made by Mr. Mulcahy (if he exists) have been any more materially misleading--and intentionally so--than those we have received from the nation's major banks, ratings agencies, etc. this year?

      Apparently the only potential misstatements allowed are from those in positions of authority.
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 25th 14:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Illiinois - Countrywide: Potentially Devastating
      I first bet the BAC purchase of CFC wouldn't go through within days of the inking of the signature last autumn.

      I'm sticking to my position even if the clock is ticking....
      View article »
    • Fri Jun 13th 09:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Yahoo's Google Ad Deal: Salvation or Mistake?
      Google now has its foot in the Yahoo door in a way that does not appear to have a major anti-trust problem. Nonetheless, as Yahoo becomes more dependent on GOOG for revenue, watch YHOO disappear as an independent search entity within the next 3-4 years. GOOG has outsmarted both Yang and Ballmer by appearing as a white knight. Watch out for the dark side coming soon.

      View article »
    • Wed Jun 4th 21:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Trusting the WSJ
      An important contribution in understanding financial (or any) reporting. The credibility of the medium presenting the story and the reported access and reliability of the source(s) of the story are invaluable in assessing the merit of a news story.

      All of us can learn from this excellent case study.
      View article »
    • Sat May 31st 10:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Do Banks Indicate the Stock Market's Direction?
      I think what makes this banking swoon different from others (maybe similar to the 1980s) is the pathetic financial position they find themselves. We have already seen they can't extend more credit, much less at lower prices, despite the 3.5% cut in the FF rate and the variety of Fed lending facilities now out there.

      I don't think they will be getting healthier this year--they still have a half-trillion in bad residential mortgage debt to write down or even off. And the deleveraging of other debt is only beginning.

      We have a long and dangerous trek ahead of us in the financial sector, one that could easily spill over into the "real" economy on a global basis.
      View article »
    • Wed May 21st 11:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Monetary Policy: Has Anything Changed?
      Great article! I agree 99%. The one percent I'm not sure I agree with is that "the liquidity crisis has been resolved and the solvency crisis seems to be working itself out." Despite the unprecedented actions of the Fed, I think there could be some major liquidity and solvency threats lurking in the many leveraged instruments the financial sector holds beyond mortgages, including securitized credit card and auto debt, CDSs, etc.

      Otherwise, yep, we're in for a moderate, but sustained recession that will primarily be the problem of the next Administration and Congress.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 20:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Beginning of the End of the Credit Crisis?
      Volume plays an important role in volatility and right now there is next to none in the markets. Volumes this year have been highest when (a) there was a dramatic drop in the indices (January and March) and (b) when volatility was highest.

      Right now, most people (& institutions) are just sitting skeptically or fearfully on the sidelines. This has enabled the modest rally of the last month on very low volume. Then, every once in awhile, the bears step in (like last week) and the price goes down.

      I don't think serious investors are willing to take a substantial risk right now. They are waiting on the sidelines for the smoke to clear on the credit crisis, the housing crisis, the inflation run-up, and the (ongoing) recession.

      With the summer being a normally dull time in the market, I don't see much prospect of it going up further in the absence of some systemically positive news, an unlikely event in the extreme.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 19:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      TIPS Market Skeptical of CPI Report
      I found interesting the little sidebar box in the BLS' CPI press release that noted the discrepancy in the gasoline price. Obviously, the reduced price of gasoline didn't pass the silly test, hence the need for an explanation.

      The discrepancy points out, however, the problem in using seasonally adjusted numbers. Properly done, these numbers do reflect the changes throughout the year in the movements of measure. On the other hand, they do not catch structural changes as is occurring now in the petroleum and petroleum products markets. What actually occurred in April, contrary to the BLS report, is that the prices of oil went up so much that demand went down at a time when normal seasonality suggests it reaching its peak.

      The same is true for almost all the other USG numbers, including the controversial recent issuance on first quarter GDP.

      The numbers won't show the recession and inflation we now face until we are in the depths of the problems.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 19:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      1990 All Over Again?
      The fact that two lines seem to move in a similar way tells me nothing about the underlying causes and effects.

      This is not just bad market analysis, it's bad history.
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 11:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing
      [Comment edited for abusive language. Commenter put on notice] I do accept the NAR data as essentially accurate within its methodological assumptions, and make my own judgments about what it means.

      For me, I don't look for house prices to stabilize before at least next year, maybe 2010, as the huge market overhang continues. I don't think house prices will reach their 2005 peaks for 7-10 years weakened, of course, by inflation in the meantime.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 28th 20:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Current Bullish Bias
      So, are you putting new money in SPY ETFs now??

      Indeed, the technical discussion above points out what I've said in other forums: You can make in forecast you want by cherry-picking the TA indicators. In this case, you have a mild preference for the favorable MAs and buying tendencies to the overall trend lines. (I would add that the volume indicator suggests that the large volume days are the big down market days. That's hardly bullish.) Why? Has statistical analysis shown the former to more reliably predict future market action than the latter?

      TA needs an underlying econometric or mathematical theory rather than simply a series of lines on charts. The charts should follow the analysis, not vice versa.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 28th 11:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financials ETFs: Is the Credit Crisis Really Easing?
      I can't disagree that companies--financial and otherwise--are beating estimates this quarter. I believe the number among reporting S&P companies is on the order of 60% beat earnings and 27% underperforming. That's a major reversal from last quarter's horrible performance by analysts.

      Does that mean the market is turning or does it mean that the analysts are coming closer to reality in the assessments? I don't know.

      What really sunk the financials the last two quarters was the massive uncertainty about the size of the bad debt they held, starting with mortgages and going through all the derivatives, and the Fed's response to the unknown financial hazard. The BSC bailout seems to have re-assured the financial sector that the Fed will come to the rescue when there is a systemic risk. At the same time, the size of the mortgage-related debt has now generally been assessed at a half-trillion dollars--give or take--by Goldman-Sachs and others. More importantly, it gives investors confidence (possibly unwarranted) that they can see the end of writeoffs since about half of that sum has already been written down.

      But is the assessment correct?? Will the bad mortgage number get worse? Will there be a spillover into non-mortgage derivatives? Will the separate, but real, decline in consumer purchasing power from food and fuel inflation and stricter lending prevent the expansion of credit?

      I dunno, but I won't be the first on the financials bandwagon.

      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»