Lilguy

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

The most important difference between now and 1929 is none of the points Mr. Krieger raises, it is the point raised by many here (& Seldon first) that the US, then the world's largest creditor nation, is now the world's debtor situation. As a result, the USG has very narrow maneuvering room (but exactly how narrow no one knows) for creating additional debt to bailout the economy without driving the dollar into the ground with Zimbabwean-like hyperinflation. And that would end any role for the USD as a major reserve currency and any prospect of retrieving real economic growth and global economic leadership. Where that leadership would come from, I don't know--but I fear it could be China.

S&P's Best and Worst of 2008

Most interesting insight: 1/3 of the 15 "most successful" stocks were acquired during the year, and Rohm & Haas may still be.

At least one, H&R Block, was coming off a spectularly calamitous 2007--and had nowhere to go (other than bankruptcy) than up.

On the down side, financials and real estate accounted for most of the big losers--and I mean really BIG!

Several value consumer plays in the list, led by Wal-Mart as well as a few bio-techs, led by Amgen. I expect that, if money can be made in the market this year, the trend will be similar: buyouts, consumer staples, and healthcare bio-techs will outperform; stay away from financials and real estate.