Lilguy

Where Is the Economy Headed? Four Bearish Views

I'm kind of in the "W" double-dip camp, but I don't necessarily see the second drop being a whole lot worse than the first. I expect the current bear market rally to sputter as the reality of 2Q becomes more evident and, particularly, as the 1Q accounting fakery of the banking industry can not be replicated for 2Q.

I have for some time thought the market would hit bottom in the 600s on the S&P500. Whether it drops below the 666 intra-day low it hit earlier this year is too fine a distinction for me to make. That said, I don't think we'll venture into the 500s and I believe we'll see the second bottom sometime this spring/summer.

After that, the market is likely to bounce along for quite some time, possibly reaching its current level late this year, trading in a modes range for at least another year, and only years from now approaching its 2007 highs.

It will not be pretty, but it is survivable.