Lilguy

The Tide Is Turning

I think that, over the last month, there has been a disconnect between the markets and our national and global economic reality. I suspect that earnings reports--even those from WFC & other banks--will put some reality back into the market. My fear is that the "guidance" from these companies will be filled with more rosy projections that let's overly optimistic investors sustain the bear market bull.

I suspect we are near the market bottom (somewhere in the 600s for the S&P500), but I do not see the economy--and ultimately the market--to pick up anytime soon thereafter. There have been too many dislocations in the consumer and financial sector to expect a sharp, sustained turnaround in stocks.

In fact, Doug Short at dshort.com shows that the "four bad bears" (including the current one) have had a history of going on for a decade or more. My pedestrian advice: Do rush into the market anytime soon unless you are equally prepared to rush out of it. It will be a traders market.