Philly Jim

The Emerging-Market Bubble

Looks like that "good" feeling is about to run out. Brazil could cut down all their rainforest, but if there are no customers for exotic wood flooring and furniture, what's the point? I'd stay short-term on that country -- be able to get out quick! My long-term hope is that the Olympic gamers don't find themselves being gutted for their organs, or mistaken for poor "favela" dwellers by police, or worse -- for blue-eyed devils from NYC by the president.

Citi: Expect Strong Economic Growth Worldwide in 2010

Citi better hope for strong economic growth abroad. They surely did use a lot of that American bailout money to expand in southeast Asia. Same goes for GM and other bailout companies that used taxpayer funds to build plants and hire employees abroad.

Will China's Growth Be Maintained by Government Stimulus Alone?

Could just be punishment for political arrangements Mongolia has with the U.S..

I believe this holiday shopping season in the U.S. could foretell the world's economic future. Asia has definitely done well with access to western technology over the past two decades; but, President Obama is right, East Asians really must figure out how to proceed without depending so much on exports to a failing society. A scenario which could soon unfold is that the ASEAN nations adopt a single E.U. style currency; China floats theirs, and American politicians get to save their skins by creating low-tech manufacturing jobs with a weak dollar. So, university costs must become more prohibitive, public education must continue to fail, access to credit must cease, and culture must continue to decline in order to prepare American youth for their future.

The Dollar: Nothing Else Matters

They should call Bernanke the "Surgeon". Forcing China to play its hand with deflation and protecting American consumer assets with inflation, using surgical precision and careful balancing; it's really insane to keep up with. Should be interesting to see the punishment phase unwind on dollar shorts when the need for them returns next year.

Gold Bullion Is Rising in All Currencies

Inflation is already here. I'm not sure exactly who is collecting the numbers for compiling of statistics in the U.S., but they surely aren't doing their jobs; that, or the numbers are being manipulated. I see inflation everywhere I shop. Items which once cost say $150.00, are now $215.00 - a nice jump in two years. It's my theory that the inflation numbers are being withheld in order to maintain low interest rates for borrowers in an extremely uncertain economic atmosphere. I wish these governments would let the market take over -- clear out the weak and let the strong come in and profit from it, and business will go about as usual. As long as this global economy is held up by paper pillars, gold will shine.

Cause for Concern: No Change from the Fed

For years the U.S. government has had no luck in pressuring other nations, especially China, to allow their currencies to appreciate. Now, these currencies are naturally appreciating with the almost 0 interest rates from the U.S., but China remains somewhat stubborn on the issue still, the hope is now that their neighbors will also place pressure on them to allow their currency to rise. It's a shame that so many people must suffer economically just to get the dragon to play fair.

Credit Card Companies Gone Wild and Other Economic Happenings

If they continue to alienate paying customers with little risk, they will only hurt themselves, but only in America. I have a feeling that Citi is in self-destructive mode, kinda like GM, all in an effort to minimize it's U.S. presence and focus on their international efforts. Believe me, Citi is booming overseas! Doing business in America is becoming somewhat of a liability for multinational companies.

Equities Update: Last-Hour Reversal

How much longer till those forex reserves are all burned up back East? It's very fragile out there and exporters are flipping out every time the dollar falls, because they know the domestic consumption scheme in developing nations may not work.

On Oct 21 05:43 PM Gary A wrote:

> People better take note of lack of end demand. Even Maria Bartiromo,
> a Wall Street insider has her doubts about end consumer demand. In
> the world, the engine of real growth is the US consumer. Once he
> is cautious, where will the growth come from?

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

The real economic disaster will come when Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, SAIC, Exxon, Chevron, GE and other U.S. conglomerates follow in Halliburton's steps and relocate elsewhere. Elsewhere, is offering attractive incentives for talented and productive individuals and companies, not to mention better living conditions. Who would have ever imagined finding better living conditions outside of the U.S.A.?

The Great Shift: China Rising, U.S. Falling

I agree, there will be more growth in economies just getting toilets, silverware and glass windows as opposed to those who already have these products, but just a few comments:

1. The Muslim world is growing increasingly skeptical of a rising communist/Godless, superpower. This is a taboo subject that the financial world has yet to delve into. Think the U.S. had it bad from terrorists? When China begins standing in America's boots, they will experience similar events as we witnessed from their ethic Uyghurs.

2. As the U.S. government and western corporations beef-up IT security, China will have less technical information to feast upon, which will remove that edge they have gained so quickly from stealing almost every bit of technical knowledge that propelled them into the 21st century.

3. People aren't paying attention enough to the emerging effects of not having westerners there to quickly consume Asian exports like they once did (See current bankruptcy rates in southeast Asian economies for a more realistic picture of the economic climate in Asia).

Asset Reflation Does Not Signal Recovery for U.S.'s Collapsed Economy

It's the emerging markets effect.


On Oct 06 03:38 AM Alan Young wrote:

> Brilliant concept, and "defunct amusement park" a delightful metaphor.
>
> However, I wish you could "connect the dots" a bit more as to why
> this "disarray" produces such a strong upward trend in stock prices.
> Are investors so easily tricked by official sleight-of-hand? Or,
> more odiously, are prices being artificially pumped by certain privileged
> Wall Street firms in a conspiracy to defraud innocent investors even
> further?

Asset Reflation Does Not Signal Recovery for U.S.'s Collapsed Economy

This country's economic and demographic trajectory is moving radically beyond the precepts of our founding fathers. Youth in the East are being programmed to be dynamic young entrepreneurs, in a land where ideas quickly turn into reality. In the West, youth are being programmed to assimilate to the prevailing culture and conditioned to open their wallets further to support the new lifestyle choice of government dependence. Most states are going broke from all the money they dump down the transfer payment toilet in the name of perpetuating the national rotting effect, while DC adjusts its glasses to accommodate the new rising underclass by boosting the debt ceiling rather than implementing American policies which encourage self sufficiency and innovation rather than just asking "where's my check". I predict a mass disillusionment amongst thinking Democrats come election time, or better yet the beginnings of a new party.

The rest of the world has figured it out, time for us to "take off the rose colored shades". The heart can't bleed much longer and universities can only brainwash intellectuals to a certain point in which logic takes precedent.

Get Ready for $35 Billion More in Handouts

Everyone deserves a chance, one of America's greatest assets is our education system. It provides everyone a chance. Now, there are those emerging cultures in America which embrace a lifestyle which does not involve aptitude, diligence, or hard work -- just a hand out for the federal government to put checks into. Transfer payments are one of the major reasons why states are going broke! The ghetto culture is being perpetuated by the media as well, just flip to MTV or visit a public school one day.


On Oct 01 06:26 PM The Geoffster wrote:

> Living as I do in a major American city, I see first hand the need
> for public housing, food stamps, welfare and other transfer payments
> to the poor. In fact, the need seems to increase proportionately
> to the demand. I don't have any charts to prove this, nor am I working
> up an article, but my eyes do not deceive me. My bias has always
> been toward the liberal view that conditions would improve for these
> poor souls if we could just provide them with the educational tools
> to advance beyond the gutter. Sadly, many of our multi-generational
> poor do not appear to have the makeup to succeed in a post modern
> society. More sadly still, I'm coming around to the notion that if
> you see a man in the gutter, he probably belongs there.
> Disclosure: SH

Get Ready for $35 Billion More in Handouts

Look, the picture is becoming very clear. The demographics that are growing the fastest in this nation are those which depend most of government handouts. Global investors who usually are comfortable buying long-term bonds have figured this trend out. That's probably one of the most important factors in buying short-term bonds vs. long-term bonds, and stock piling commodities rather than keep dolalrs. In 2050, the U.S. will probably look like a giant, tribalized welfare police state where the federal government taxes working class and wealthy Americans at 85% of their income in order to support the new voting under class. This is probably why bright young people are choosing to begin their careers in Asia, rather than a ghetto infested, crime ridden, deteriorating U.S. city. The only thing that will wake up the real America would be a complete economic collapse and possibly another major war.

IMF Report: Good News and Bad News, But Not Much New News

Good News: Blanchard calls for Asian currencies to rise...like a good boy. I hate to sound nationalist, but the innuendos need to stop, really; the IMF needs to just come out and say it already: global bankers want the East to have more money and power than the West, for the reason that there are more consumers there than here. Western corporations just got a major bailout by getting to close shop in the "rust belt" and open shop out East courtesy of Western taxpayers.