SeriousBull

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34 Comments

    • The 15-Point Plan to End the Credit Crisis [view article]
      A credible start deserving of support and debate. The solution needs also to be open to the non-bank, public, free market competitive forces to purchase the non-eligable securities. Also mark to the market accounting and haircuts should be manditory for less than investment grade securities. Finally the Fed should be stripped of its purse and be required to make its case to Treasury to assure accountability and and transparency. Sep 26 10:19 AM
    • Look Who's Upside Down Now [view article]
      The Reserve data tell it all. This bailout is for the banks to meet their reserve requirements, for the Fed to recapitalize, and for the FDIC. I agree with you that money supply tells it all and that we can expect further contraction of the US economy. Given the unfortunate circumstance we must pay the price to save the financial system but must also include the yet mentioned cost of bailing out GNMA. Since this aggregate number is a couple trillion dollars the question to debate is if while they're at it everyone shouldn't also be issued a VISA card by the government to pay their debt on time. Sep 26 09:54 AM
    • Is the $700 Billion Really for Bailing Out the Fed? [view article]
      I don't think it is necesary to believe in a conspiracy to follow the thread of the position the Fed has put itself into by accepting crap as collateral for real taxpayer money. The Fed needs a bailout and is recharacterizing Treasury's Bailout as one for the banks who should've already have paid the Fed back. The plan is to overpay to give banks capital again in exchange for the securities the Fed needs to give back. I think this accounts for why the original proposal was for no oversight and no court redress when they were found out. Sep 25 05:31 PM
    • The 'Melt-Up' Rally Continues [view article]
      The market is rising on the bet that their is going to be a bailout for mortgages. Barney Frank is readying it as we speak. May 07 11:06 AM
    • Market Insights From Master Minds [view article]
      Good article to ponder. Black Swan events do occur and it would certainly not be an unprobable event to see a 12 P/E on the S&P. One must remember we are experiencing the inverse reaction to the multiplier effect of excessive leverage. The better part of prudence is to stay hedged, leave some powder dry, and cut your losses. May 01 10:51 AM
    • The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Two [view article]
      Unfortunately this is true. What will also impact the US economy is the magnitude of defaulted GNMA loans no government official or politician is willing to talk about. All this means cutting spending and slowing growth. The Fed's actions merely bail out those responsible while little to abate the reality of too much leverage and too much debt. May 01 10:33 AM
    • The Treasury, Fed and Bankers Are Setting the Bull Traps [view article]
      You are dead on it that this is no time to go long or stay long. The Fed has little alternative to printing money in direct or indirect ways. They see the enormity of the leverage, the amplitude of derivative risk, and the negative capital reserves in the banking system and are attempting to shunt a financial panic by doing what ever they can to keep the system afloat. It's a sad commentary when public money is used to bail out irresponsible behavior. Sader too that "too big to fail" now encompasses not just Citi but the whole of the financial system. Apr 21 10:55 AM
    • Fed Notes Indicate Economy's Troubles Aren't Over [view article]
      You have estimated a decline in housing prices in the range of 25% or $5 trillion in banking write-downs. This is more in line with our analysis portends the immediate need to shore up the Treasury by taking aggressive action to salvage what we can to shelter the US taxpayer from the losses coming, not only from private companies, but from losses to be (one-day) realized at the government mortage agencies like Ginnie Mae. Time is of the essense as banks typically only hold 5% collateral on a home loan so we are agreeing that $100 trillion in capital reserve deposits (5 x 20 mulitple) will vanish. Apr 10 10:19 AM
    • The Real Threat of the Housing Bubble [view article]
      Interesting data. It certainly backs up the marketplace reality that there is not yet enough inducement to buy. Also noteworthy is the fact that bank/brokerage capitial reserves are severely strained. Banks only keep 5% on deposit for housing loans so the decline in housing values has significantly diminished their ability to lend. The Fed is obviously helping and praying time will turn things around. The unfortuate case is that this 'help' delays the tipping point being reached as it delays final repricing of mortgage loans that were made based on excessive valuations. I think the Fed's focus to shore up balance sheets and timing bet to fix the problem may prove to be the highway to printing money as a final cure. Mar 27 10:40 AM
    • Reconsidering the Deflation Risk [view article]
      Thoughtful article with good perspective ,however I think the Fed has been behind the curve reacting to the financial crisis until just recently. I think the Fed is focused on bank balance sheets and solvency issues first and foremostly doing what is necessary to avert a financial collapse of the credit markets. Certainly the Fed is aware of the long deflation in Japan and of the risk of inflation. But I would not characterize the Fed as focused on either deflation or inflation at the present time. Mar 27 09:49 AM
    • Take a Piece of PowerShares' Emerging Markets Technical Leaders Pie [view article]
      Credit Suisse has had the Indonesia Fund (IF) available since 1990. It has outperformed the EEM but has a higher Beta related to its sole focus on one country. Mar 24 11:30 AM
    • International Monetary Fund Head on Europe and Stagflation [view article]
      A lot of lip service by a bureaucrat I think and unfortunately the kind of reform needed will be a developed - emerging growth battle resulting in a less than optimum outcome. Indeed we have reached the time to consider whether financial solvency and/or amount of debt should not be considered as regulatory elements in trade and international relations among countries by a world governing body. For example, would a great debtor and/or insolvent nation who must externally finance its massive debt be more inclined to advocate peace, stability, and growth in their international relations or chaos, fear, and instability? For surely the former would drastically increase their debt service and perhaps make it impossible to service their debt? I think you can see that OECD member countries may sharply diverge on agreement to resolve such a matter that undeniably is in their long term common interests but involves punitive actions targeted at those who have more clout. Mar 20 09:58 AM
    • Current Financial Crisis Going Into Extra Innings [view article]
      The Fed as amply dealt with the liquidy issues of the market but not the solvency issues. Leverage of course amplifies both. The reason this crisis will have many more innings is that enormous value has been lost and the Fed is betting that time will cure the problem as banks, assisted with bigger spreads, will be able to gradually write-down/off bad loans and muddle through. The only problem with that scenario is that banks play by one set of rules and brokerages another and they are interconnected in the financial system. Moreover, the US economy is teetering and more likely to be his enemy rather than his friend in the timing bet. Remember we still have GNMA losses to tabulate and that last broken leg of the stool may very well be the undoing but nobody will discuss it publically. Mar 20 09:37 AM
    • "Way of the Turtle": Overcoming Biases in Investing [view article]
      I think all those points are relevant and that's why whether a trader, money manager or individual investor one should rely on a discipline that is adhered to, not second guessed. After all the "cognitive biases" are really different colors of the major investor mistake of trading based on emotion. Mar 20 09:20 AM
    • The Worst Trade Of All Time [view article]
      I think we will see a shareholder lawsuit against the Fed and JPM. This is likely going to go the the Supreme Court. Bear will argue that had the Fed opened the window a day earlier they could have survived and that the different banking vs brokerage regs created an unfair advantage such that this takeover was unprecedented and unfair. Mar 20 09:05 AM
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