SeriousBull

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    • Thu Mar 20th 09:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Current Financial Crisis Going Into Extra Innings
      The Fed as amply dealt with the liquidy issues of the market but not the solvency issues. Leverage of course amplifies both. The reason this crisis will have many more innings is that enormous value has been lost and the Fed is betting that time will cure the problem as banks, assisted with bigger spreads, will be able to gradually write-down/off bad loans and muddle through. The only problem with that scenario is that banks play by one set of rules and brokerages another and they are interconnected in the financial system. Moreover, the US economy is teetering and more likely to be his enemy rather than his friend in the timing bet. Remember we still have GNMA losses to tabulate and that last broken leg of the stool may very well be the undoing but nobody will discuss it publically.
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    • Thu Mar 20th 09:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      "Way of the Turtle": Overcoming Biases in Investing
      I think all those points are relevant and that's why whether a trader, money manager or individual investor one should rely on a discipline that is adhered to, not second guessed. After all the "cognitive biases" are really different colors of the major investor mistake of trading based on emotion.
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    • Thu Mar 20th 09:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Worst Trade Of All Time
      I think we will see a shareholder lawsuit against the Fed and JPM. This is likely going to go the the Supreme Court. Bear will argue that had the Fed opened the window a day earlier they could have survived and that the different banking vs brokerage regs created an unfair advantage such that this takeover was unprecedented and unfair.
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    • Wed Mar 19th 12:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much Ammo Does the Fed Have Left?
      I agree the Fed missed an opportunity. They continue to address the liquidity need falsely assuming that in time the extra credit and spread will address the solvency issue. Indeed the Fed fails to recognize that these losses are real and big. Securitization and Leverage is amplifying the liquidity crisis and I doubt the Fed has time on it's side to wait out the solvency crisis looming. Today's rule change to let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lower their capital reserve requirements is a good move to expand the buyers for these mortgages, but the bottom line is that they are not worth 100 cents on the dollar and again, it is highly likely that the reality of the lack of buyers in the market place will trump the attempt to sugar coat reality.
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    • Mon Mar 17th 10:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Warning Signs of a Modern Depression: See 1990 Japan
      Unfortunately this is all true. Japan dealt with it by cutting rates to 0 to stop accurals of liability--every debtor became current. The US is headed there. Of course, the markets have devalued the dollar, but there are two options: US Dollar devaluation--say 4:1 or selling America by inviting unprecitented Petro and China dollars back. I look for the latter as soon as the election is over.
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    • Thu Mar 13th 17:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      UBS: U.S. Bailout for Homeowners Will Arrive by October
      The losses are massive because of the leverage and securitization. Can anyone estimate Ginnie Mae's losses that the US Taxpayer owes?
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    • Thu Mar 13th 17:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Futures Down Triple Digits on Hedge Fund Collapse
      Maybe it will be the Financial Times that calcs the losses in Ginnie Mae. No one in the American Press, including Seeking Alpha, will pubish anything about it. Except for my articles, the last article when googling the subject of GNMA defaults is an article in 1989. And guess what? It runs a close parallel with with what caused the mess today. Maybe that's why the eerie silence.
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    • Thu Mar 13th 17:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Retail Sales Declining: Consumers Finally Cutting Back
      You know it. I know it. When will the Feds understand that we are fast approaching the tipping point where a full fledged consumer led recession will be upon us it will take a magic bullet to pull us out of it and they not only don't have a bullet but they won't have a gun.
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    • Thu Mar 13th 16:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Missing From Paulson's Report: Regulatory Consolidation
      Amen. And consideration of the Consumer.
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    • Thu Feb 28th 12:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. in 2008: A Chance to Learn From Japan's Lost Decade
      I agree with you, but want to add that Japan cut interest rates to zero to stop default--no accrued interest and everybody's current on there loans. By this action Japan sought to buy themselves time to let assets re-appreciate. They had engineered a 'kieretsu' between banks, corporations and government permitting, for example, permitting equity to be used as reserve capital thinking that inflation would always increase prices years later having observed the 'indexing to inflation' policies of the US. In the US we are now, because of our financial condition due to the excess of leverage, finding that to engineer a V-shaped recovery by accelerating the devaluation of homes is not possible because our banks would fail, pensions implode, and US Debt related to GNMA bankrupt us. So not much different than in Japan's situation you can understand the reason for the denials, back-peddling, and procrastination to act hoping for a short U-shaped recovery.
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    • Thu Feb 28th 11:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Thoughts on the Dollar: PPP and Thresholds
      Interesting and I would like to agree. However, instead of focusing on the war on terrorism, I believe our government should focus on the economic war underway. We are fighting a well-educated global enemy who seek to depress dollar valued assets only to sweep in and buy them up. Given the official state of denial as to what's occuring economically, the rising deficits, the degree of system wide leverage, and the tactical rather than stragegic policy initiatives pursued, we are aiding the "de-coupling"... reality and it is only a matter of time before our only tool left will be printing more money to try to inflate our economy, and thereby devalue, foreign held US goverment debt obligations.
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    • Thu Feb 28th 11:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Market Tracker - War, Elections Slow Down D.C. Office Market
      Thanks. Good collection of what's evolving in the commercial RE market. I was however suprised that office demand in DC was weak as the lawsuits to fly related to sub-prime will be a bonanza for attorneys.
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    • Fri Feb 1st 11:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Alpha's Not Earned From Riding the Tides
      I have to agree with you one must wear a harness until some of the excess and leverage is washed out. I also believe you said it well above when you said its hard to beleive invesors are willin to ignore such negative factual economic news. I'll say it again, until we have transparency and discussion of how much GNMA has lost and the taxpayer now additionally owes, this crisis will not be over.
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    • Thu Jan 31st 11:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Fed's Lose-Lose Decision
      Dear not on my account,

      I agree with you. Read my post today entitled: Will we learn from the lessons of the past. (hint inside: buy mbia and ambac)
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    • Sun Jan 27th 22:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Greenspan: U.S. Recession Far From A Done Deal
      If there is justice, the maestro will fall off his pedestal and all will glare. This man is nothing more than a paid lobbyist. He lobbied before he was the Fed Chairman that it was a good idea to permit the mismatch of short term deposits to long term liabilities at S&L's. He advised Congress that hege funds and derivative securities should not be regulated as they were mere tools for banks to diversify risk. He ignored the excessive speculation of banks when they made ridiculous telecom loans. He bull shitted Congress to keep them in the dark and bragged about it to sell his book. And he ignored the exotica mortgage packages banks guaranteed and hawked around the world that have destabilized not only the US financial system but that of the world. Those who respect him should buy the monoline insurers' guaranteed debt for both are fools.
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