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Dr. S. O. Teric
2 Comments
MBIA, S&P and What AAA Really Means [view article]
I guess S&P is not easily confused by facts. :)Good work. Feb 26 09:21 AM
Black Swans, Real Estate and Financial Stocks [view article]
'Mr. Taleb is saying, in effect, that he would rather have no model at all rather than attempt to use an imperfect model."No. Having a model that gives the illusion of knowledge is worse than no model. Mr. Taleb points out that the effects of black swans are overwhelming.
Example:before/ after WW1, European monarchies gone, Russian revolution, England in rapid decline, Influenza epidemic, USA ascendant. As in the book, Goodbye to All That by Graves - the world changed.
Not an example: overeating by a factor of two on Thanksgivng. Does not effect your weight in the long run.
You missed the difference between Mediocristan and Extremistan which is central to the argument. Traditional modeling works in Mediocristan. Traditional modeling is dangerous in Extremistan.
Jan 02 08:07 AM