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  • Linn Energy: What To Make Of The Recent Insider Selling?  [View article]
    22023171-
    I was a very small stockholder in United, and a retired pilot who lost a portion of my retirement in their BK. I am sure that UAL had not one unencumbered asset, like Oil leases and drilling equipment, when they declared BK. PanAm operated in virtual BK for 25 years. If they made any debt payments it was enough for Banks compared to what a BK would yield.
    Linn will get bought-out cheap, or they will borrow on every single asset possible before BK. Somebody above suggested that the subject insider sale could be motivated by knowledge that some Oil asset is going to be "on the table" shortly, intimating that it will be worth more than the Linn shares.
    LINN can stay alive for a long time, and Oil will recover.
    Whether a BK is voluntarily or not isn't always obvious. You certainly know that the Banks are talking to these debt-burdened Oil's in this market, and they are approving all financial deals before hand.
    Regards,
    Nov 14, 2015. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: Linn Energy exploring debt restructure options  [View news story]
    mp1977; Unless the bonds were sold with a "disclaimer" that they could be subordinated, so the buyer was fully notified, they can't do it, and they'd never be able to sell another bond. Linn would never try it.
    Regards,
    Nov 14, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: Linn Energy exploring debt restructure options  [View news story]
    "...Agree that dilution is an issue that would not be an issue with the bonds. The issue with the bonds is the upcoming subordination, but that's been priced in for a while..."

    How can the bonds be subordinated without the bondholder's agreement?
    The Company can't unilaterally diminish the value of their bonds.
    Regards,
    Nov 13, 2015. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: What To Make Of The Recent Insider Selling?  [View article]
    to avoid bankruptcy?
    What do you think bankruptcy is? A Company with assets can't declare BK while they own equipment and income producing assets. Usually, they are forced into BK by Banks and debt holders, but they don't do that if there's a chance the Company can survive and pay its debts. Forcing BK will only get them a few pennies on the dollar of debt. If the Company voluntarily declares BK, the lenders either get the assets or they get stock in the new (emerged) company, and Management is kicked out.
    The real danger is that shorts drive the stock to pennies-levels, where it is impossible to sell new shares, as a last resort, to pay bills. At that point, the shorts can take control, if they have covered their shorts with enough shares, purchased for pennies, sell the assets to a strong Industry Corp. Nobody will bid on the Company because of its debts, but they'll buy the assets for next to nothing, guaranteeing Management new make-believe jobs with the buying company, and the stockholders get nothing. That's the way it usually works; finally, when the Company is stripped of value, it declares BK.
    To avoid that scenario, the debt has to be restructured.
    Looks like Linn management understands the problem.
    Regards,
    Nov 13, 2015. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Perrigo chief glad to move past Mylan; share repurchase plan commences  [View news story]
    So, now Management will buy back stock, reducing the denominator in the earnings per share equation. Most Companies that do this find their Managers are eligible for bonuses for increasing per share earnings. I don't know, but would not be surprised if this is also the case in Perrigo's executive compensation plan.
    Let's try to remember this.
    Regards,
    Nov 13, 2015. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: What To Make Of The Recent Insider Selling?  [View article]
    Who is the target of the word "crap"?
    Mr. Market is wrong at least 50% of the time, so that analogy is probably true for your investments, but it is a ridiculous assumption to base investment on.
    Those who follow Mr. Market sell at bottoms and buy at tops which is Mr. Market's plan. Markets reflect fear and greed, and those human emotions are what keeps the big players rich. They know how to play 'em like a piano.
    I have seen many sectors crash, and Oil three times. If you take advantage of "fear" and buy good stocks when they are hated by Mr. Market, you will prosper. There are good Oil stocks that are hated, today, that will triple from here. Linn is not one of them, but it should recover, if they are getting their debt in line.
    Nov 12, 2015. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Perrigo strikes out with NY court in attempt to block Mylan bid  [View news story]
    Why not? Reason?
    Regards,
    Oct 30, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp: Announced That It Will Cut The Dividend By 60% To 0.15 Per Quarter.  [View article]
    The price of oil is probably Putin's primary focus, and he can make the Saudi's an offer they can't refuse. Cooperate or see Russian supplied ISIS manipulated into moving across their borders from Iraq and Yemen. $70 Oil will not be enough, since they'll need lots of experienced mercenary fighters. Can't take the chance of giving young Saudi's weapons. $100 Oil may not be enough. I think it's a "done deal". Saudi's have been to Moscow very recently. They've had their bags packed for decades.
    Regards,
    Oct 28, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp: Announced That It Will Cut The Dividend By 60% To 0.15 Per Quarter.  [View article]
    Good point. Inexperience shows. All he had to say was, "Right now, we feel the dividend can be sustained"; then it's opinion, probability.
    What concerns me is that I own (17 years) a ton of NE and just bought quite a bit more. I figured a 50% divvy cut was very possible, but they cut more. Stupid. The "double-talk" almost sounded intentionally deceptive.
    I had already called the bottom in the Oil Market, so this move by my most favored stock really is a bit scary. I hope it is because they see a cheap rig or two they lust after, and not an extensive Oil bear market.
    Regards,
    Oct 25, 2015. 12:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp.: Complete Fleet Status As Of October 15 With Commentary  [View article]
    What's wrong with the Company is the share price might rise if the public starts buying it. First, his friends need to accumulate their position; then it will be a wonderful investment. When the price rises high enough, they will scream BUY, so they can unload, at the top.
    I'm buying more, today. Friday is the day positions get closed out for the weekend by the pro's.
    Regards,
    Oct 16, 2015. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore drilling woes worse than expected, Wells Fargo analysts say  [View news story]
    Both Israel and Saudi Arabia had visits to Moscow before Putin made his move. Russia's only cash export is oil and gas, and the guy knows how to apply pressure. Once Syria is "stabilized", he will drive ISIS into Iraq and depending on the Saudi's cooperation, either destroy them or send them across the border into Saudi Arabia where the holy cities they covet are. Putin will allow Iran to control Iraq, so the Saudi's will have a mortal enemy gradually surrounding them. Iran is Shiite and their major goal is to control Islam. For that, they need to control the holy cities in S. Arabia.
    One way or another, they face war if they don't play ball with Putin. War is expensive and their population is peaceful because of expensive social programs. They will not willingly fight over the price of Oil. A revolution is always a concern of the Saudi Royal Family.
    Regards,
    Oct 16, 2015. 10:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore drilling woes worse than expected, Wells Fargo analysts say  [View news story]
    The "bashers" are back, and that means the big guys are accumulating. That is especially true when BofA (Merril Lynch) "speaks". They always advise Buy at tops, and Sell at THE BOTTOM. Count on it.
    Regards,
    Oct 15, 2015. 10:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore drilling woes worse than expected, Wells Fargo analysts say  [View news story]
    Offshore, the best is Noble, NE. Pays 11.5% and they don't cut it, in my 17 years owning it. Check SA for the latest article.
    Regards,
    Oct 15, 2015. 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill - Prepare For More Downside  [View article]
    It's not confusing to me, Vince. This was a blatant hit-piece, and it solidifies my opinion that the bottom has been seen, and accumulation is taking place.
    Many of the World's knowledgeable Oil analysts and businessmen are already recognizing that Putin's dramatic and almost theatrical appearance in the Middle East is signaling change is coming with Oil.

    Everything in this article was meant to be negative, and the author grudgingly acknowledged the debt/equity ration improved, without pointing out that it is relatively healthy, at only 1.097. I hadn't realized it improved that much, but others did and are accumulating.
    We can thank the author for ringing the bell, but let's not make this article a success by Commenting too much. He probably is being well-paid, and doesn't need the nickels from hits on this article.
    Regards,
    Oct 15, 2015. 01:19 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill - Pros And Cons  [View article]
    It was not good investor relations to "indicate" the dividend was dependable, but there was no promise that was legally binding. To continue paying it, in light of their debt service requirements, might have been grounds for legal action, IF someone could claim it was intentional, to defraud shareholders.
    To me, it was arrogance based on assumptions that oil demand would continue to increase, and that the decline was temporary.
    Businessmen in this industry tend to be very aggressive, making big bets with leverage, and the proof is in the fact that even the most conservative are, or where, smashed unreasonably in the Market.
    It may be years before we find out what the real reason for the Oil price collapse was. Something beyond the shale oil supply is involved, IMO.
    I believe we've seen the worst, and we will see $70, and maybe $80, next year. Most of the OPEC Countries need at least $100 a barrel to maintain their dictatorships. Libya needs $180. Russia needs about $105, and that is one of the two reasons Putin has moved into the Middle East.
    Source: http://read.bi/1NbU3bk
    If these Countries start collapsing, the World will be in real trouble, so the World Bankers won't let it happen.
    Regards,
    Oct 13, 2015. 11:25 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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