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sinedo

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  • Avoid Linn Energy LLC And These Other MLP Value Traps [View article]
    Who are you referring to, northgoing? Not the author, nor any of those commenting; those are just guesses.
    Good article, and he is right that the conventional wisdom is usually wrong, and when "experts" predicted prices from $55 to $167/barrel, who could say they pretended to know? There are too many factors that could still not be seen, like the seriousness of the war to stop Iran's nuke weapons program.
    Not universally considered by the "experts", the Chinese have developed an automobile industry capable of producing more gasoline-powered cars than the Country can absorb, so they are creating markets in So. Asia and Africa. They also have hopes to develop a huge electric car market there, but their leaders admit that the cars are really coal-cars", as that is where the electricity comes from and their air pollution is enormous. They have coal, but little oil, and they don't want to be oil-dependent. Lower oil prices are good for gas mini-guzzlers, and that is the probable winner. Normal population growth, worldwide, genuinely pressures more oil demand, so it is still a guess on how long oil can stay below $80. My W.A.G. is six months, for what it's worth.
    Regards,
    Jan 1, 2015. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Linn Energy LLC And These Other MLP Value Traps [View article]
    The problem is that "markets" are always irrational, and especially when computer programs drive them. I believe there is a good chance the share price will drop some more on div. cut announcement. Trading programs are designed to create max. volatility. They create nickle and dimes trades, eight or ten per second.
    Regards,
    Dec 31, 2014. 09:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Linn Energy LLC And These Other MLP Value Traps [View article]
    I read the article twice and it is not a "short" bash against LINN. What he said is don't go in for more or start a position, yet, and he supports his advice with technical evidence of past MLP performance in a similar oil market. I like to hear both sides' arguments before I decide, as I own a ton of LNCO and about half as much LINE, and would like to add more. My gut says wait, and when I disregard it, I usually regret it.
    Oil could be bottoming, as some say, but it needs to go sideways for a while before you can believe it.
    Saudi Arabia is fighting a war against Iran and hopes to Bankrupt their nuclear weapon ambitions, so this oil dump is not just an economic recession's demand change. The U.S. has backed out of its leadership position in the World, so they have to try and control Iran alone. If they have $2 Trillion in their oil war chest, they can break a lot of Countries and Companies, and may get most of it back afterward. They are sophisticated financial managers, and know whether the risk is worth it. The stakes are enormous for them.
    Regards,
    Dec 31, 2014. 09:28 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Seadrill Ltd. Reinstate Its Dividend? [View article]
    It is amazingly naive to believe "...The rest of the world is not going to put up with anymore Russian aggression..."
    Who in the World cares enough to risk angering the Bear or endure any expense, other than to temporarily go along with toothless sanctions? Currently, the U.S. is a demonstrated "pussy cat" and aggressors understand that the U.S. will no longer lead, so they know they have a pass to act without risk.
    Regards,
    Dec 29, 2014. 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Seadrill Ltd. Reinstate Its Dividend? [View article]
    "...but if someone bought or decided not to sell as a result when the stock was in the mid-30s and the stock dropped to the teens as a result of the suspension of the dividend,..."

    Steve Rasher; does that constitute a real "cause of action"? Wouldn't there have to be realized losses (damages), as a matter of fact and law?
    Regards,
    Dec 28, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Seadrill Ltd. Reinstate Its Dividend? [View article]
    "... We'll see what the courts have to say about it."

    I for one will bet there will not be a legal action that reaches the "Courts" (a Judge). Every week, Plaintiffs' lawyers try to start litigation they know will be settled by payoffs to the lawyers to go away. If there were decent prospects, I think we would see many more of them circling SDRL. That's the clue that tells me there's no good prospect that Management will roll-over, like so many do automatically, with stockholder money.
    Regards,
    Dec 28, 2014. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Seadrill Ltd. Reinstate Its Dividend? [View article]
    I would like to remind those who want to hire attorneys that SDRL management was trying to reassure stockholders that the "shorts", who were writing negative articles suggesting the financial condition of the company was much worse that the corporate reports indicated, were totally dishonest. They even raised the dividend a few pennies to an even $1 a quarter to show how confident they were. Dumb or naive, it's a good defense, IMO.
    A claim, that they were defending the shareholders and the assurance that the dividend was safe was just part of their efforts to repel the shorts, seems like it would be hard to disprove.
    There has to be some kind of "smoking gun" to support a lawsuit, in the end.
    Regards,
    Dec 27, 2014. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Seadrill Ltd. Reinstate Its Dividend? [View article]
    The problem of proving intent to deceive makes a legal action under SEC law of doubtful merit. Stupidity or incompetence are valid defenses, plus to have a cause of action, the plaintiffs would all have had to sell and taken actual losses.
    How many will they find, and if the market turns up, there's no more cause.
    Suspending the dividend is a defensible management decision in most cases, and unless there is evidence that a CEO or Managers sold their stock after assuring stockholders the dividend was sustainable, or other fraud, there won't be any way the Government will press for prosecution, IMHO.
    Regards,
    Dec 27, 2014. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Seadrill Ltd. Reinstate Its Dividend? [View article]
    "...to survive as a going concern." Ridiculous!

    SDRL is in the drilling business, not the Oil commodity business, and its finances depend on lease income, not the price of Oil. It may have been prudent to cut the rich dividend, but eliminating it was not necessary and a truly stupid management decision, in light of the fact that it has contracts on it rigs for all of 2015. l can only wonder if those contracts are as solid as management has bragged they were.
    Something scared them, and they didn't have a competent investor relations leader able to gradually soften the impact. That, or they couldn't risk paying this quarter's dividend because of some unexpected shock.
    Regards,
    Dec 27, 2014. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Seadrill Ltd. Reinstate Its Dividend? [View article]
    "For this reason, I believe class action lawsuits against SDRL are valid."
    What is "valid"? Appropriate? Likely to succeed?

    Someone, please tell us what would substantiate the case.
    I would remind shareholders that stupidity of management is a fine defense. Bad judgement is so common in business, it's expected.

    Only class action attorneys win; stockholders get pennies, and it all comes out of the corporate treasury. If you win, you lose.
    Regards,
    Dec 25, 2014. 02:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Suffers Another Blow [View article]
    It seldom a mistake to buy solid companies or commodities when they are hated by the market. As often as I have done it, it is still hard to do. There is a survival gene that forces us to keep our heads down. It also makes us want to sell at the worst possible time. If you accept that genetic theory, it helps keep you rational.
    Remember the only risks that can't be overcome are oppressive debt and bad management. Events can change things, but that is true for everything in life, so all you can do is base your decisions on the data you have.
    Regards,
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Still Hopeful That Linn Energy Can Avoid A Distribution Cut [View article]
    "...making a new law"
    How old are you? Laws don't solve economic problems; they cause them.

    Economic laws work without being written down, and they are enforced naturally. Low oil will stimulate economic demand; probably not too quickly, and marginal operators will shut down marginal operations until the commodity price recovers, reducing supply. Both work to fill the gap between over and under-priced products, so the price will rise to where there is economic equilibrium. It's like the law of gravity; powerful and reliable.
    China had economic laws just like Cuba still has. See how laws work?
    Regards,
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Linn Energy 'Pulls A Seadrill?' [View article]
    I am especially critical of "bashers" on SA, and Management just deleted another post, yesterday, as too "accusative", but I don't think Casey is one. Dammed if you do or dammed if you don't point out the obvious, maybe. That Linn could be expected to cut their dividend might be a surprise to some, so I give him the benefit of the doubt from reading his other articles.
    He, however, wrote: "...Seadrill cut its dividend because it had refinancing needs in 2015 and saw the possibility of unfriendly capital markets next year. Therefore, Seadrill opted to use free cash flow to pay off debt while it could. What about Linn Energy?..."
    Like many SA writers, he assumes things like Seadrill cut the divvy for refinancing problems, but Seadrill, to my knowledge, made no such statement that it was refinancing. It suggested it might and it did not explain its action reasonably, to shareholders. If they explained it the way Casey did, it would have been less offensive to us.
    I always take these articles lightly, as to the authors' opinions, but do appreciate them reviewing facts and predictions that are on each Company's home page.
    Regards,
    Dec 17, 2014. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill At Imminent Risk Of Bankruptcy... Really? [View article]
    Putin is in trouble, and further sanctions will not be necessary. He is really financially squeezed, as Oil is his only export industry, and his needs are staggering. He should reverse his aggressive foreign policy, but he just might go harder, from anger and frustration. Cutting off nose-behavior is not out of the question, and it wouldn't make any sense to cut oil exploration when that's his only source of funds.
    Obama has a terrible foreign policy record, so it is not unreasonable to think it will continue and more salt in Russia's wounds is quite possible.

    BTW, "...The number of US oil rigs had reached a record high of 1,609 in mid-October, but last week dropped to 1,546, declining during six of the past nine weeks due to the near fifty percent drop in the price oil since mid-June, Baker Hughes reports."

    http://bit.ly/1BYNanw
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill At Imminent Risk Of Bankruptcy... Really? [View article]
    T. Boone Pickens, on CNBC yesterday, said Oil will be back at $100 within six months to a year. I've found his instincts and predictions have been pretty solid, over the years.
    Regards,
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
363 Comments
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