Seeking Alpha

sinedo

sinedo
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View sinedo's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Avoid Linn Energy LLC And These Other MLP Value Traps [View article]
    I read the article twice and it is not a "short" bash against LINN. What he said is don't go in for more or start a position, yet, and he supports his advice with technical evidence of past MLP performance in a similar oil market. I like to hear both sides' arguments before I decide, as I own a ton of LNCO and about half as much LINE, and would like to add more. My gut says wait, and when I disregard it, I usually regret it.
    Oil could be bottoming, as some say, but it needs to go sideways for a while before you can believe it.
    Saudi Arabia is fighting a war against Iran and hopes to Bankrupt their nuclear weapon ambitions, so this oil dump is not just an economic recession's demand change. The U.S. has backed out of its leadership position in the World, so they have to try and control Iran alone. If they have $2 Trillion in their oil war chest, they can break a lot of Countries and Companies, and may get most of it back afterward. They are sophisticated financial managers, and know whether the risk is worth it. The stakes are enormous for them.
    Regards,
    Dec 31, 2014. 09:28 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debriefing The Linn Energy Call [View article]
    Pretty much another "hit piece" from Seeking Alpha shorts. That's encouraging to me. Cover shorts and go away.
    Regards,
    Nov 6, 2013. 04:25 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Get Ready For Another Hedgeye Short Attack [View article]
    It's an old game --shaking out the weak hands, but the stock won't go down, and it's killin' them. The weak hands left last summer, and savvy investors bought their shares, and are waiting to pick-up more. The price of Oil won't cooperate either. Shorting income producing Oil stocks with Oil around $100 a barrel is stupid. They're letting the children play the short game, it seems.
    Regards,
    May 15, 2014. 09:50 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Come To Daddy [View article]
    Excellent comments, NC Investor. All investments have risk, and "anal-lists" all seemed to think the Oil Drillers, on and off-shore, were risky, at the same time. It's a common herd characteristic. There followed a short-attack on all of them, including the Pipelines. That negativity was the major risk, and it was not "business" risk.
    Unfortunately, for the Shorts, the companies, they shorted and bashed, pay big dividends that limit the downside, and invite greedy investors, like us, to take advantage of the cheap stock prices. SDRL recovered much of its share price when it announced new contracts and sale of an expensive rig, producing a better debt to equity ratio.
    It is still cheap at $40, but technically it's short term resistance seems to be around $42, but that was at the start of the short selling, so it only marks the time when the Market was relatively normal. The shares sold short rose from about 11 million in Feb to 28 million last week. They are still selling short a bit, and paying the dividend, so they haven't gained a thing.
    They will have to buy at least 15 million shares to cover and get out of their losing position. I think the weak-hands shareholders have already been scared out, and it is going to be expensive to find all those shares, unless some very bad news comes along. So far, there has only been good, healthy news and demand for oil is rising. If 2nd Quarter earnings are anywhere near prediction, demand for shares will rise.
    So, on top of all the good news and the 10% dividend, the likelihood of a short squeeze driving the price into the $50 range is not unreasonable.
    Therefore, I like the current $39 price for both income and capital gains.
    Regards,
    Jun 25, 2014. 02:49 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's still not time to buy offshore drillers, Raymond James says [View news story]
    It is a fact that these anal-ysts place their bets (long and short) and then make their considered "recommendations". This reasoning is based on dumb, stretched assumptions and questionable history to the point that is laughable, IMO.
    I WILL BET THEY ARE WRONG, and almost every time, it is profitable to go against their recommendations.
    If you chart their recommendations, analysts seem to recommend buying near tops and selling near bottoms. Ever wonder why? Raymond James is not the worst of the lot, but it is still a good bet to do the opposite of analyst advice.
    Regards,
    Jul 21, 2014. 03:10 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Is The Market Pricing In Another Distribution Cut? [View article]
    After 50 years of watching Sector crashes in markets, it never changes. Fear keeps most investors doing the same wrong things, thinking it is forever, and that it, whatever it is, will get worse and worse. It never happens that way, even with genuine bubbles. The gaps in the charts always get filled, and rational values return. It's easy to remember that China had pulled back on their commodity demand, but few see that as rear-view mirror activity. They're manufacturing 700,000 cars for sale in China, and those people aren't likely to go back to bicycles; neither will those new buyers in Southern Asia. That is just auto demand for gasoline in Asia. That demand is happening all over the developing World. U.S. businesses are starting to grow, they're hiring, and looking forward to less headaches from the Government, with the help of the new Congress.
    Of course, with paper currencies in trouble, all over, there is always a chance of economic collapse, but as long as there are smoke and mirrors, it's unlikely.
    The odds are that oil demand will grow, not decrease, but right now, there are no buyers, or no tanker-load buyers, who are willing to take any risk. That will change; it always does. When there's a little price stability, demand will come back fast. Wars always help demand, and I find that encouraging.
    One last thing, how about the timing on the asset sales? Oil leases and land got cheap, didn't they?
    Regards,
    Jan 15, 2015. 11:23 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill And Rosneft: Does The Dividend Elimination Signal A Catastrophe? [View article]
    Seadrill can find a way to rent its rigs to a 3rd party that is not subject to the sanctions. The legality of stopping someone from doing business is subject to challenge, and I don't think the U.S. has that much leverage over a Bermuda company, or that they will want to open the can of worms. Sanctions don't work, and they are feeble tools of diplomacy that are routinely winked at.
    Nov 28, 2014. 02:06 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Get Ready For Another Hedgeye Short Attack [View article]
    "Seeking Profits" says, this time: "Investors should be sellers of LINE." He punches out hit-pieces in complete coordination with HedgeEye, convincing me he is on their payroll. His first bash was the first Sell recommendation, I've ever seen, based on the probability that a company would not INCREASE its distribution in 2014. Unbelievable, but at least he avoids out-right lies. I won't read the article if he's compensated by SA for my views.

    Barrons doesn't write the hit-pieces; their editors allow writers, off the leash, to publish them. I suspect Barrons will be guarding their reputation in the future, and watching those guys carefully.

    To me, it is very encouraging to see this desperation from the Shorts; they're clearly amateurs, way over their heads, and this education is going to be very expensive. Don't let them scare you out.
    Regards,
    May 16, 2014. 10:34 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Production Imperils The Distribution [View article]
    When "Seeking Profits" prints a bash and the stock goes up, you know he has been identified as the spokesman for the "Shorts", who have not been able to get out (cover). I would like to see his bash drive the stock lower before the next divvy, but I can't depend on him any longer.
    Waiting, like he is, for the short squeeze, still to come.
    Regards,
    May 1, 2014. 01:35 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Linn Energy Distribution Safe? [View article]
    "...- perhaps the bears will ge tired and move to something else."

    "Seeking Profits" still has his job to do, continue trying to scare the Mom and Pop income investors out, so his pals can cover their big Shorts in LINE and LNCO. It's clear to me they haven't yet, and the Oils and Materials are reversing out of their downtrend, so the Market won't help them, and the "weak hands" have sold, already.
    Hope springs eternal, but short-squeezes are more likely, at this point in their game. Help get one started by adding to your holdings at this giveaway share price BEFORE Friday, and get the .2416 divvy. Good luck, SeekingProfits, getting it down some more so we can get a better deal.
    Regards,
    Apr 8, 2014. 11:51 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Linn Energy And Berry Petroleum Deal Falls Through? [View article]
    I disagree that the deal is all that "critical". Linn has cash, and can expand its own vast acreage production, or find other acquisitions. I find this author to be more objective, but still softly negative. I also suspect there is something to gain, hoping the deal doesn't go thru and the stock price gets hit further. Just a gut feeling based on experience.

    Frankly, I hope the deal doesn't go thru, and Berry's stockholders get a chance to let Management hook them up with a lower quality buyer. They may get a better deal, but maybe not. There are no sure things, and it would be much wiser to try and get a bit more stock from Linn; I have a feeling there are "feelers" out, already.

    I would also suggest that Linn shareholders will be better off when this deal is executed or abandoned. Then it will stand on its own, and be less affected by rumors and opinions designed to generate selling. They've probably drained that bucket, already, but more power to them. I'm ready to buy more.
    Fear and greed drive markets; learn to profit from them..
    Regards,
    Oct 25, 2013. 03:21 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So Undervalued, They're Golden [View article]
    There is no investment more risky than drug and medical device stocks; they burn money faster and heavier than any miner. Then you have the totally corrupt and industry captured FDA throwing obstacles in front of all but the biggest.
    Regards
    Sep 17, 2014. 11:05 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Listen To The Goldfields CEO - Buy Your Gold Before Prices Jump [View article]
    The suggestion that the stock market is a better place to invest, today, is Buy High, Sell Low thinking. For best results, buy when something solid is unloved, and sell it when everyone wants it. I remember buying my last 100 oz Silver bar for $400, when nobody was buying, and I regretted not buying more many times later, but buying one was hard, at the time, because the bottom was still not in, the "market brains" were saying. Non-rare gold coins were similarly dirt cheap.
    Everyone should have some precious metal protection, but there are times when sellers get so pessimistic they become irrational. It never fails to repeat, in cycles. When, like the author says, PM's are selling for less than the cost of production, the bottom is close enough.
    Regards,
    Dec 13, 2013. 02:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Seadrill Is Not A Falling Knife [View article]
    "...Although Russia has been able to weather the effects of U.S. and EU sanctions thus far for its action in Ukraine, the restrictions have already led some firms, such as Rosneft, to ask for financial assistance from the country's National Wealth Fund..."
    From a private Stratfor Global Intelligence email letter:
    Oil Prices Continue to Define Geopolitics October 2, 2014 | 2237 GMT

    I have found the author, George Friedman, a pretty reliable source, though he is not above exaggerating the significance of his "intelligence".
    Long SDRL, and will probably add a little, today. The fact is, ALL oils, metals, and commodities are out of favor these days. It's not just off-shore drillers, and such fear is illogical and clearly will reverse.
    If you want to take positions in these inflation-resistant investments, you have to buy when they're hated. Most people can't do it, even when they know the fear is unwarranted. Herd genes are difficult to ignore.
    Regards,
    Oct 3, 2014. 11:42 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Panic, Grab Seadrill Out Of The Bargain Bin Instead [View article]
    Exactly, the risk/reward equation favors taking a bite, now. Only liars always buy at the bottom, so it's always a gamble that they'll be more selling, and you could have gotten a better price. Analyze:

    Who is selling, now? Look at how "short" interest has tripled in the first two weeks of Sept: http://bit.ly/OllqWL

    The evidence is overwhelming, IMO, that the selling is driven by hedge funds, not investors. Eventually, they will have to buy to cover in order to take their profits, so they are gambling, too, that there will be stock to borrow and sell to drop it farther. The CEO thought the shares were too cheap, and not worth missing; I do too, and I just increased my position by 30% in the $27 area.
    As long as I believe I have a good idea of the worst case scenario, I have found it is profitable, 80% of the time, for me to take the bargain. The chart also doesn't look like it has much more downside pressure.
    The price pendulum ALWAYS moves too far in each direction.
    Regards,
    Sep 29, 2014. 01:54 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
371 Comments
763 Likes