Alan von Altendorf

http://www.cwsx.org
Total Rating:
+22 / -20

256 Comments

    • Fri Sep 12th 07:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sell the U.S. Dollar into Strength
      Thank you, 243404
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    • Fri Sep 12th 07:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras Looks More Compelling Than Ever
      On Sep 11 05:08 PM torto wrote:

      > [Petobras] profit today is due to refining, distribution and exploration
      > in foreign countries ONLY, and was actually hurt by higher oil prices
      > and state subsidizing of gasoline prices. What one must think of
      > when analyzing PBR is oil prices in the next 30 yrs (and ethanol
      > etc.), because the recent spike in oil did nothing but reduce PBR's
      > margins.

      Sorry to quibble.
      Exploration & Production 29% of 2006 revenues 81% of operating earnings
      International Operations 5% of 2006 revenues 1% of operating earnings
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    • Fri Sep 12th 07:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman's Risk Management Strategy May Have Caused the Problems
      Thank you, sir. Very informative.
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    • Thu Sep 11th 20:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Demand Down, Supply Up
      It all depends on war risk.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 11th 05:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sell the U.S. Dollar into Strength
      Two thoughts on this. Selling the USD implies trading it for something else, and it is not immediately clear what else one should buy and hold. Secondly, the money supply is contracting, no matter what the Fed and US Treasury do to inject liquidity. When banks stop making new loans and tighten revolving credit, as they have, there are fewer credit dollars in circulation. That explains dollar appreciation vis a vis commodities, I think. Whether monetary or fiscal policy can reverse the dollar boom is an open question. What matters first and most, I believe is war risk and thus the price of crude. All goods are priced in energy AFAIK.
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    • Wed Sep 10th 23:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Great for Brazil, Not So Great for Shareholders
      One final thought. I have some skin in this game, because I issued an Energy Analyst report on PBR, a summary of which was published on SA June 2nd with a sell recommendation:

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      If you want a copy of the entire 12-page report, you have to be an SEC qualified investor or broker. Email my office. I have no position in any oil company. Don't own any options. Brazil subsalt is a frontier play. My involvement in this discussion is actually procrastination, because I have to make a $30 million decision this week whether to commit to a proven oil producing trend elsewhere. Everything looks good: source, seal, structure, reservoir. But statistically, it's always a 1-in-10 gamble, even in a proven producing trend. Subsalt Brazil is incalcuably worse. No production. Sour, tight, high pressure gas in ultradeep water.

      The world needs and wants Brazil to produce 100 billion barrels of oil. It ain't gonna happen. Meanwhile, I have to decide whether to bet on a sure thing, with a 10% chance of winning.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 22:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Great for Brazil, Not So Great for Shareholders
      Kezorm:

      "Dry hole cost" is a technical term. It means the cost of drilling to the target formation, not including well completion. No one spuds a well expecting it to be a dry hole. Nor do I claim any PBR wells were dry. They had shows. They flowed gas and condensate on test.

      I regard Exxon as a better outfit than Petrobras. More importantly, they are a commercial company. Wait and watch what Exxon reports and decides to do in Brazil, based on what they find. If they flip it to PBR as a gas resource, then Tupi is a dead duck (economically). Contrariwise, if Exxon find a big, porous oil sand, then my reputation is toast.

      Fair enough?
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    • Wed Sep 10th 19:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Great for Brazil, Not So Great for Shareholders
      From a commercial perspective, Exxon's involvement is small potatoes, one drillship well for reconnaisance, dry hole cost split with Hess. I'm aware of the literature. No serious person calculates reserves on mag and grav, or a couple 2D lines looking through salt. I suppose Petrobras have enough well data for a velocity model to plug in to the WATS 3D survey. Structure is not the issue. And anyway, like I said, this will all be resolved in a few months.

      Reserves guesstimates are nothing. Wait and watch for production.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 05:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Great for Brazil, Not So Great for Shareholders
      Pretty damn sad. Estrella was being economical with the truth. There were a dozen wells in the Campos exploration campaign that drilled to the basement. The "subsalt success" was finding a shale source that charged shallow turbidite reservoirs (82% of current oil production).

      One rank wildcat well in Jupiter. One in Tupi. One in Carioca. Plenty of broken drill strings, sidetracks, confusion, delay, political moonshine.

      Here's where things stand. No one knows anything for certain about Brazilian subsalt. Published geochem is inconclusive. Published well data admits there are no sands, only carbonates "of variable reservoir quality." The Norwegian wide azimuth seimic survey starts in October. Exxon's exploration program has good documentation. This will all be cleared up in a few months.

      My prediction: tight gas in dolomite. No recoverable oil leg.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 9th 08:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      $300/Barrel Oil Is Coming - Barron's Interview
      Chris B wrote: "If Obama wins, oil could drop in response to the reduced geopolitical risk... "

      I don't think so. Obama is more likely than McCain to escalate tensions and wage mega-war. The Dems are always scared of appearing soft. FDR, Truman, JFK, LBJ were war presidents, JFK threatening nuclear war with Russia. Israel has the option of attacking Iran and dragging us along, no matter who the next POTUS is. Personally, on behalf of good government and some creative destruction, I like President Palin.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 05:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Great for Brazil, Not So Great for Shareholders
      Further on who's who in Brazil:

      Modec, SBM Offshore, BW Offshore, Saipem bid for PBR Tupi FPSO, with Modec likely winner at $400,000 per day. Jurong Shipyard building another FPSO for Petrobras $1.6 billion. SBM Atlanta, Modec, Floatec bidding for Papa Terra FPSO. Floatec probable winner in joint venture with Keppel Fels and J Ray McDermott to build at Brasfels. Diamond Offshore drillship at BM-S-24, probably move to Statoil BM-J-3 next. Seadrill drillship at BM-S-22. The only Transocean commitment is to Anadarko in Campos BM-C-30 and two other Anadarko blocks.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 9th 01:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Great for Brazil, Not So Great for Shareholders
      Brian did you read the AOL announcement?

      "Statements regarding contract terms, contract execution, commencement dates and estimated revenues, as well as any other statements that are not historical facts, are forward-looking statements that involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. These include... actions by customers"... (like not being able to pay!)

      But don't listen to industry insiders. Trust AOL every time. PBR's Energia nat gas affiliate ordered a newbuild drillship that will be financed and built by Japan. RIG has a fleet of 147 vessels.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 23:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Great for Brazil, Not So Great for Shareholders
      Kezorm - which 15 wells please?
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 23:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Great for Brazil, Not So Great for Shareholders
      Okay -- regarding Transocean: great company, very little exposure to Brazil (thank goodness). They have more deepwater semisubmersible rigs deployed in India than in Brazil, and twice as many in West Africa. PBR plans to drill as cheaply as possible with Brazilian-built platforms and FPSOs.

      It was fun looking at Transocean's data. Their Sedco Express-class deepwater semisubmersible rigs are spectacular to behold. But they ain't going to Brazil. Way too expensive. GOM yes, NS maybe.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 19:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Great for Brazil, Not So Great for Shareholders
      BM-S-22 data will be a market mover because it's being drilled, logged, cored, and tested by grown-ups.

      If time permits, I'll write something about RIG.
      View article »
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