Alan von Altendorf

http://www.cwsx.org
Total Rating:
+22 / -20

256 Comments

    • Thu Aug 14th 01:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mongolian Mine Should Boost Ivanhoe Valuation
      I'm long IVN. They have excellent scientific staff.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 13th 22:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Will Only Fall So Far
      Um... not to intrude. Old Wiz raised an interesting question. There's no substitute for hydrocarbons. Alternatives are swell, that's okay, but there is never going to be an acceptable substitute for API 30-ish sweet crude (super light condensate doesn't count). So, the strategic question is how to produce more. Offshore California makes sense, but the oil play I like best is Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.

      I don't know that we'll have a chance to do much of anything before a real shooting war begins. Mistakes are the rocket fuel of history.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 13th 21:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Case for Retreating From Oil Investments
      I think Jim's thesis is good. Maybe war risk should get more attention. I doubt that Saudi production has anything to do with influencing Iran, but who knows? Personally, I'm skeptical that they (or anyone else) will succeed in bringing a new megaproject online in the next couple years. The industry has been dumbed down quite dramatically. Witness the situation comedy in Kazahkstan, 8 years behind schedule and 300% over budget. Globally, NOCs are bleeding red ink because domestic downstream prices are fixed impossibly low, and all exploration plays are astronomically expensive. Exactly as I predicted, PBR is looking to borrow another $20 billion to throw away on Tupi, Juptier, Carioca, all of which have produced nothing but broken strings and 'let's try again' deviated holes at $500,000 a day and up.

      Russia hurt the IOCs bad, BP perhaps worst of all, which reminds me of something Ayn Rand said, that Russia has an unbroken history of failure. By cheating and browbeating Shell, Exxon, and now BP, Putin sealed their fate. In two or three years Russia probably won't have any surplus oil and gas to export.

      That puts Europe in a very, very difficult spot by 2010.
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    • Wed Aug 13th 21:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Three Secular Shifts Changing Markets
      Thank you. It was reassuring to hear a calm validation.
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    • Tue Aug 12th 22:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What's Changed on the Seeking Alpha Website?
      The virtue of the unsorted stream of articles was basically that it flagged market currents and competing views. Can't see anything on the sector dashboard, no dates, no authors -- and worse: the front page is cut to a few editor-selected items, everyone else banished to obscurity. I was planning a new article. But I don't see the point in submitting something that won't be scroll on the front page and never make an editor-driven dashboard. Granted, I'm not as important as David Fry or Jim Kingsdale, but the new regime induces doubt that I will see them either. And how does one discover new voices?

      There was a specific reason I came to Seeking Alpha. It's gone.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 12th 19:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What's Changed on the Seeking Alpha Website?
      When I saw the new front page layout, I wrote an email to you saying that Seeking Alpha was ruined. Watchlists are not useful to me. The flow of articles across all sectors on the front page plus the paginated archive was your core service, now gutted and gone. The Sector dashboard is useless IMO. Sorry to be so blunt.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 7th 21:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Supply and Demand in the Oil Market
      I dislike repeating myself. Volatility factors war risk and hoarding of available supply.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 7th 04:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Credit Crisis: How Could So Many Be So Wrong?
      better link to Waldman
      www.nakedcapitalism.co...
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 7th 04:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Credit Crisis: How Could So Many Be So Wrong?
      Steve Waldman has an extremely shrewd, surprising explanation why so many got it so wrong, shunning risk. Posted at naked capitalism: feeds.feedburner.com/~r/NakedCapitalism/~3...
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 7th 00:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is it Different This Time?
      Hmm... well, one of us is correct. Double long gold, 80% cash.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 6th 09:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Producers Rush to Lock in Prices
      Learn something new every day:

      (Reuters) JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs' [are] Wall Street's biggest energy traders. The two made an estimated $5 billion trading energy and commodities last year... Morgan Stanley [owns] U.S. coastal distillate storage tanks.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 5th 01:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Prices Down on Lower Demand
      Are bureaucrats and defense contractors driving less? Ambulances, cops, garbage trucks? Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, Halliburton? Politicians and campaign aides? How about 18-wheelers that deliver food to grocery stores, gas to the gas stations?

      I accept that some discretionary summer travel has been cut, esp. air travel. But refined product demand is inelastic. Compelled to speculate, I'd say war risk was cut $10 yesterday on news chatter that Bush Admin might open a US-staffed American Interests office in Tehran. Could be disinformation. A cheery head fake.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 4th 20:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord
      I agree, great article, very well done, plausible account of what may have been agreed ex-China and with a big dollop of Russian hooey.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 3rd 05:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dinallo Comes Down on Monoline Bears
      "You don’t need to spend much time on The Googles to confirm that insolvency is precisely what Ackman has been predicting..."

      Okay, I give up. What are The Googles?
      View article »
    • Sat Aug 2nd 05:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Exxon Mobil, Shell: Demand and Production Issues Weigh on Shares Despite Record Income
      I agree with Peter.
      View article »
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