Alan von Altendorf

http://www.cwsx.org
Total Rating:
+22 / -20

256 Comments

    • Fri Aug 1st 10:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Bet Against Chinese Demand Growth Just Yet
      Rebuilding Chinese cities, towns, dams, bridges destroyed by the earthquake adds demand for copper and steel, I should think. They have enormous dollar reserves to go on another shopping spree.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 31st 08:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Just Another Day for 'Da Boyz' in the Hood
      How sad is this? From Bloomberg a few minutes ago:

      Wal-Mart said same-store sales in June rose 5.8 percent, the biggest increase in four years, as costumers spent the rebate money on discounted gasoline and food.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 30th 08:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis
      Brilliant article, thanks
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 29th 06:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Congress Saves Fannie and Freddie: The Cure Will Kill Us
      I agree. The question is where to park my money? The horizon of one year or maybe 18 months is not a coherent strategy (forgive me for thinking out loud). Crazy volitility this week and Merrill's no-money deal with Lone Star foreshadows crazier and crazier deals, then kablam?
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    • Mon Jul 28th 22:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Top 5 Looming Financial Issues
      Rick: Oil is a commodity, no different than milk or pork bellies. Highly volatile, no guarantee of appreciating in the future. Most companies and their allegedly "proved reserves" are wildly overvalued, especially in Brazil, SE Asia, India, China. The oil sector is not a safe bet.
      View article »
    • Mon Jul 28th 19:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Top 5 Looming Financial Issues
      Winslow, speaking for the majority:
      "We may, unfortunately, find we need a 'dictator' to provide solutions."

      Heyswyndon concurs:
      "We must humble ourselves... buy a bicycle..."

      There is no way to answer these inanities or Lounsbury's maximum sacrifice of WWII, except by parody, although Sinclair Lewis was dead serious when he wrote It Can't Happen Here. And so, I'll say it straight. You have all been bullied into a folly. The one and only problem we face is strangulation by government, and here you all are begging for more of the same.

      There is no energy crisis. I'm better informed than most about the oil and gas business. Peak oil is real. And 3/4 of current production is in the hands of fascist, tribal dictatorships (governments). But it's only a commodity. The one best thing you can do as an American and citizen of the world is make money, compete aggressively with your neighbor, and roll back the power of government. At minimum, that means ending the war, ending foreign aid, ending subsidies and loan guarantees. To make real progress for the sake of our children, we need to phase out Social Security and Medicare altogether.

      Too tough? Too scary? Well, too bad. If you lack the courage to advocate American liberty, then American Fascism you will get, all red white and blue with brass buttons and ration cards.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 27th 20:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stagflation and Peak Oil: How Related Are They? (Part I)
      Larry said oil recovery "percentage is going up with improved drilling techniques, such as horizontal drilling"

      Nope. Horizontal brings it up faster, that's all it does. Applies mostly to onshore and near shore wells. Requires enormous expertise and good geophysical data.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 27th 08:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Top 5 Looming Financial Issues
      "The problem is that there must be political will to deal with a level of economic austerity usually found only in times of major war, such as WW II."

      An apt comparison. Conscription. Food and fuel rationing. Retooling GM and F to make tanks, jeeps, and bombs. Confiscatory taxation. Censorship. Internment of resident aliens.

      And who do you propose to attack? ... Mexico?
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 25th 23:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bespoke's Sector Snapshot (7/25/08)
      Nice work, guys. Thank you.
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 25th 00:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Extremely Overvalued
      Jake,

      I didn't know Ken Heebner existed when we issued a Petrobras assessment. Nor is it important whether his fund did well last year or last quarter.

      The main ideas presented above are simple. Take profits. Whatever Petrobras someday produces from subsalt carbonates (if anything)will be piped onshore for thermal electricity generation, which loses money historically. Producing from Tupi will be heroic and costly. It has not been fully surveyed or appraised.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 23:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Experts Tell Congress: To Consumers, It's a Recession
      I think the point of Trader Mark's article (a very important point) is that we're at the tipping point. Doesn't matter how we got here or why. The Great Depression wasn't just a severe economic slump. It brought Hitler to power in Germany. And the conflict of WWII was primarily war for control of oil and shipping. Okay, we live in a new modern context. Russia and China are much stronger. Gulp.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 06:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Always, always a pleasure to read you, David. Thanks.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 02:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      10 Notes on the Current Market Fracas
      "Only one of the 11 U.S. regional banks to report so far has actually reported growth. Half were worse than expected." (FT, quoting Bloomberg) Why exactly is the United States to big to fail? You think China, Japan, and Russia are going to backstop the U.S. Treasury?
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 22nd 04:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      InterOil: Uncertainty Fading
      More good news: on advice of counsel, we won't be covering OIC.
      ftalphaville.ft.com/bl.../
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 22nd 00:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Extremely Overvalued
      My source for Tupi gas-oil ratio was a slide show presented by José Formigli in Miami November 2007 archived on the Petrobras website.

      Latest news, via Upstream: Brazilian petroleum regulator ANP is mulling whether Tupi and Carioca will be "unitized" or considered giant "contiguous reservoirs." This has to do with penalizing foreign IOCs like Shell and Exxon instead of rewarding them for exploration and production. Meanwhile, PBR is simlutaneously tendering for a 348 kilometer 18-inch gas pipeline to connect Tupi to Mexihalo, which probably can't be built because it's too deep, too expensive, and seeking proposals for a floating LNG terminal, which nobody has done before and probably can't be done. In any case, FPSOs will grapple with corrosion, processing and storage if and when Tupi's gas-condensate-oil-wat... discovery is ... er... produced.

      They're also talking about high pressure re-injection of gas to lift some oil, more oil, whatever. Sorry I'm so negative. Brazil needs gas to fire thremal electric plants and they currently import 30 million cubic meters a day from Bolivia. Not a very dependable supplier.
      View article »
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