Alan von Altendorf

http://www.cwsx.org
Total Rating:
+22 / -20

256 Comments

    • Thu Nov 6th 00:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?
      The other factor to consider is the fallacy of talking about "we" -- as in: We are running out of oil. There is no "we" in the oil business. The exporters Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela (and, yes, most of the self-sufficient producers like Brazil) subsidize consumption of oil and gas. Production sharing agreements with the West amount to a lop-sided deal that skims half or more of whatever Exxon or Shell produce for export.

      The true meaning of Peak Oil is called Resource Nationalism. USA, Japan, Korea, Germany are destined to pay far more for imported oil.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 5th 05:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?
      To put that in context, even if you recovered every drop OCS, it's about 3 years US consumption at current rate, no population growth, no additional cars or 18-wheelers carrying food to market.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 5th 05:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?
      BigG wrote: "the problem is not that we are running out of oil, but that a certain group will not allow drilling in the USA where there are large known reserves, such as under the city of Los Angeles, off the California coast, off the Florida coast, in Alaska etc."

      Nope. Only ~20 billion barrels Ca, Fla, Ak outer continental shelf (OCS)

      "Many proponents of domestic energy security consider gaining increased access to Federal resources to be one of the biggest challenges. Part or all of nine OCS planning areas, which include waters off 20 coastal states, have been subject to longstanding leasing moratoria enacted annually as part of the Interior and related agencies appropriations legislation, or are withdrawn from leasing until after June 30, 2012, as the result of presidential withdrawal (under section 12 of the OCSLA). Some of these areas contain large amounts of technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources. The MMS estimates that conventional oil and gas resources (i.e., UTRR) in OCS areas currently off limits to leasing and development total 19.1 billion barrels..." U.S. Department of the Interior Minerals Management Service February 2006
      www.mms.gov/PDFs/2005E...
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 15:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Petrobras: Mixed Sentiment Despite Record Production
      "Reserves certainly aren’t the issue for Petrobras."

      Anadarko and Exxon are currently drilling the celebrated Brazilian pre-salt prospects at the most optimal structural locations and will report sometime in the next few months whether or not it's commercially feasible to recover any light sweet oil in Tupi-Carioca. I expect the answer will be no.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 08:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Does Bernanke Really Know about the Great Depression?
      Thank you, Mr. Jackson. I hope it's some comfort to know that your work is much needed and read eagerly on this forum. A question, please. Assume further quantitative easing, perhaps a big program of fiscal stimulus and higher taxes (which I and many others expect), can you project a result in 2009, 2010, etc? Practical giudance is extremely valuable.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 05:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's a Great Time to Be an Inflationista
      Thanks, SW. We see eye to eye. New data from AP --

      jessescrossroadscafe.b...
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 05:03 AM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?
      Value Investor wrote: "The fact is we have trillions upon trillions of barrels oil in the ground..."

      Proved and recoverable = 1.1 trillion worldwide

      Of that, about 10% of global reserves are located in places where the rule of law and enforcible civil contract exist: Gulf Coast, North Sea, Canada.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 03:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Armageddon '08 Concluding?
      I agree with waf76. Meanwhile, get a load of this FT quote, explaining why USD hasn't crashed in anticipation of Obama landslide:

      "The market thinks the Democrats cannot go through with their more expensive plans."
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 08:01 AM | Rating: +2 0
      Commented on:
      My What-If-Obama-Wins Portfolio
      No way. Obama wins, you want financials and broad market indexes, not niche plays. Longer term MCD and WMT make sense.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 05:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pair Trade: Oil & Gas Exploration and Drillers
      Good research. Adding you to my author Watchlist.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 05:06 AM | Rating: 0 -2
      Commented on:
      Signs of a Tradable Bottom Appear
      Obama win = sharp rally
      McPain win = sharp drop on riots, recounts, lawsuits
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 2nd 21:45 PM | Rating: 0 -2
      Commented on:
      The Shallowest Generation
      @ SA Editors

      This new 'feature' of voting on comments is dangerous. Quinn's article proves that discussion is good, but activist slamming of opponents in rating each other turns SA into a battleground. To what end?
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 2nd 21:19 PM | Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      The Shallowest Generation
      @ Baddoggie

      Quinn wrote: "I truly hope that President Obama can rise to the occasion and become a true statesman and leader." Democrat-majority Congress is a foregone conclusion.

      Tax, borrow, and spend - full speed ahead.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 2nd 08:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      We Simply Do Not Have a Financial System
      ?? Politely, what the heck ??

      In a free market based on private property, private contract, private savings, there is no "financial system" as such. It's easy to baffle the public and conflate markets with intervention (liberty and fascism), using muzzy terms like "financial system" to imply it's all one big intertwined Political Economy that needs alternating doses of poison and free lunch.

      Once in a while I'd like to hear a notable economist say that GSEs were lunatic bipartisan folly, that central banking makes as much sense as Soviet central planning, and unfunded entitlements have to be wound up and written off -- all of them, including private pension and health care funds that are hopelessly broke (auto workers, teachers, cops, airline pilots, etc).
      View article »
    • Sat Nov 1st 20:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?
      No one in the oil business benefits from volatility, except minnows and penny stock promoters. High prices inspire governments to penalize existing production (windfall taxes, expropriation, regulation). Exploration dries up because engineers and money managers scramble to complete current projects.

      Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch were the 800-lb gorilla price pumpers, not oil companies. Equilibrium at $70 kills the unconventional plays like new heavy, Bakken shale, tar sands and ultradeep offshore frontiers.

      Demand destruction doesn't alter peak oil reality. It just postpones our consumption (marginally) and kicks the political football around.
      View article »
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