WTF

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    • Wed Jan 2nd 15:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
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      The Tellurium Supernova
      Mark what is your real beef? You get laid off from FSLR or something? Thin illogical rambling will make your prophecy come true?

      while the article and in particular counter-points are quite interesting I think this is much ado about nothing. Why don't you site all the evidence how basically ever since the history of man there has only been ~20 years of refinable oil left. Then they discover (read "open") a new deep sea bed once the price goes up. It's more about what's practical/profitable at the market price that dictates the supply, and yes prices of most materials increased heavily in 2007 and will probably continue to do so in 2008. I mean look at PET, is there a global PET shortage in the wake since prices increased 20% on the year (>50% over 2 years) which is way out of line with traditional variance of << +/-5%?!? I doubt it. My understanding is the shortage here is primarily from the oil refinery capacity which has been heavily manipulated (at least in the US) from the supply side to maximize profitability.

      Also your source on 12/03 about why the government is wrong about Cd-Te supply/uses is a site selling a book of papers that doesn't really have any free published information there... Say what you will about government corruption and lies, a release from NREL in 2003 is more up to date and credible than a series of papers written in BEFORE 1995 and then compiled as a new book in 2006.

      The bigger concern is, as stated, that the (printed) flexible film PV circuits are arriving. Advantage there is the production output increases while costs decrease. I believe capital investment also decreases for this approach so it's not like FSLR, Miasole or anybody else can't get into this new approach quite easily if they pay licensing or find a work around...

      If you can reach 90% 5-yr supply stability IMHO you're doing pretty damn good. I think if you find numbers for other companies they would be in similar positions. Even massive established companies rarely have more than a 1-year contract for the supply of materials or finished parts. In the case where a material is critical or the price is exceptionally volatile they might structure a longer term contract to minimize inflation exposure and guarantee a minimum supply but I think you're reading into this way too far.

      Finally in science terms, when they say "in 20 years" it means the same as when your contractor says it will "take 2 weeks." It means they don't have an idea but hope it will be done by then. I trust from your silly cowboy hat that you've worked with contractors before.

      If you look at the history of "inventions in 20 years" from the previous 40+ years you will laugh. Also just because something was proved in the lab doesn't mean it will make it to market anytime soon, typically this is another 5~10+ years of production development before the have a beta process that can be used.
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