FH

Black Swans, Real Estate and Financial Stocks

The problem is that you don't know that you don't know! Yeah, you came up with your numbers after running it through some overnight job on multiple CPU processors and to me, all you are saying is that you were able to "guess" that Citibank "may" drop by some pct. And what does it tell me? And why should I take this number more seriously than a random guess by a taxi driver? Because it knows more based on history?

I think the basic premise of Taleb's book is that these models helps us get into a false world were we think we know! and that's dangerous..