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2 Comments
Black Swans, Real Estate and Financial Stocks [view article]
"carry your umbrella and slicker every day" .. but dont you see the difference? Weather forecast in normally a low impact event. Yes, they go wrong and i get stuck in the rain! I would argue its not the same thing as losing all my savings cuz I had a false confidence in a number that told me that there is a 95 perecent chance i wont lose more than 40% in a year! Jan 03 03:50 PMBlack Swans, Real Estate and Financial Stocks [view article]
The problem is that you don't know that you don't know! Yeah, you came up with your numbers after running it through some overnight job on multiple CPU processors and to me, all you are saying is that you were able to "guess" that Citibank "may" drop by some pct. And what does it tell me? And why should I take this number more seriously than a random guess by a taxi driver? Because it knows more based on history?I think the basic premise of Taleb's book is that these models helps us get into a false world were we think we know! and that's dangerous.. Jan 02 04:47 PM