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Zhongjian Xia's  Instablog

Zhongjian Xia
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1996 - Present: Risk Management Professional at a credit card company. 1996 - PhD in Economics, Rutgers University.
  • Airline Sector

    As bull market continues, airline companies could take off big time, similar to housing stocks. Consider following factors:

    1. Big consolidation and reduced cost/reward. It is so good now because it was so bad in the past.

    2. Newer more efficient fleet.

    3. Big drop in oil price - a. US oil production could double to 14MM barrels per day by 2015. b. Break through in battery powered cars - Tesla can only sustain if it becomes a mass choice. c. Collapse or big slow down of China economy.

    4. Slow but continued growing US economy. Next 3 - 5 years may be among the best in history, as so many tail winds(housing, much lower household debt level, cheap gas, oil to come, amazing innovation capabilities in US)

    Many times, stock will go up more or go down more, and keep flat longer, than people think. Investors either need to follow Buffet approach - select good ones and keep for long time, or making strategic bets based on certain assumptions. Soros, Jim Rogers, John Paulson are great examples of strategic thought leaders. Some opportunities are obvious and may be once in a life time, like appreciation of yen before last year's election(Soros and Goldman Sacs won big money betting on Yen). For amateurs this is extremely challenging but it is possible and it is aspirational.

    Back to airlines, the question is timing to buy. Currently I have 40 call contracts for Southwest and 12 contracts for Delta. Will build more call positions if there is a significant pull back.

    Disclosure: I am long LUV, DAL.

    Sep 23 2:12 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Market Correction

    Market correction may be over at this point, but expect Sept to be a rough month as well. Added $40k into 401K from stable value to stock yesterday.

    Aug 29 1:53 AM | Link | Comment!
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  • Sold my Jan 18 $RHT call, more than doubled. Still hold $MSFT Feb 22 calls, losing money but expect to recover. Hold airlines.
    Jan 14, 2014
  • opened small call option postions for June $RHT and Feb $AAL
    Dec 31, 2013
  • bought $msft Feb calls - expect to break out 52 week high of $38 after earnings, follow index - Surface tablets sold out.
    Dec 23, 2013
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  1. Airline Sector (1 Comment)
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