Jim Kerns

2 Comments

ON: Thu Jan 24th 18:04 PM
Commented on:
From The Horse’s Mouth: Yale's Endowment Officer Makes Financial Sense

Geoff,
Aren't there supposed to be some charts with this article? JK
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ON: Wed Jan 2nd 19:29 PM
Commented on:
Black Swans, Real Estate and Financial Stocks

I would posit the critical factor in resolving this delightful blog is: repeatability. Can QPP repeat in providing small but real probabilities to high impact events. Dr. Considine has shown repeatedly in his series of articles that QPP has correctly identified real, but small, probabilities to other "crashes". See his archives. The reason for this capability is the long-term equity risk premium model that is the basic operating principle of the market and QPP. QPP will continue to provide such results as long as the equity risk premium does morph into a black swan, itself. Also, Dr. Taleb has been adept at using tools similiar to QPP and would probably use such data to buy an out of the money put and collect a high impact reward!
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