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yalcocer

yalcocer
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  • Crude oil dips below $50 on glut worries [View news story]
    "Gary Ross, the founder of consultants PIRA Energy Group, said oil markets aren’t nearly as oversupplied as many believe and spare capacity is tight since Saudi Arabia is pumping all the crude it can without new drilling.

    “Current prices are unsustainable,” he said Monday in an interview in London. “It’s hard not to see oil hitting $100 a barrel at some point in the next five years.”"

    http://bloom.bg/1ebSaOI
    Jul 21, 2015. 12:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories [View news story]
    Today's Brent-WTI differential is more than 11$/bbl. It is amazing how we are losing money by not taking the right decision. We need Keystone and US needs to start exporting crude. The Saudis are doing what they need to do to recover market share. We better start doing something...
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brent crude slides under $50/bbl [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/1BAmrju

    I like to think $60-$80/bbl but not real math behind this. Take a look to the attached Wikipedia reference.
    Jan 8, 2015. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brent crude slides under $50/bbl [View news story]
    Not so sure. Yesterday price drop was directly related to the action from the Saudis lowering its benchmark price again.

    They are looking to recover market share by sending oil prices low enough to make U.S. shale and Canadian oil sands production unprofitable.

    US is better off lifting the US crude export ban and increasing the access to the Canadian crude oil with the Keystone pipeline. US and Canadian crude will get closer to Brent prices and OPEC prices will drop.

    This will help erasing the arbitrage generated by the crude exports ban and locked supply from Canada. On top of this there is the issue of Energy Security.
    Jan 7, 2015. 06:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Senate puts Keystone pipeline bill on fast track [View news story]
    It is evident that the latest OPECs decision of not cutting supply will have an impact in the US and Canadian oil sector. Even US GDP gets the benefit of low crude oil prices in the short run, this will have a negative impact in the mid-long run because of the arbitrage generated by the crude exports ban and not been able to get access to the discounted crude from Canada.
    On top of this there is the issue of Energy Security as US and Canada will have to start closing projects because they are not profitable under current market conditions.
    By lifting the US crude export ban and increasing the access to the Canadian crude oil, US and Canadian crude will get closer to Brent prices and OPEC prices will drop.
    Jan 5, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor sends its first tanker of western Canada heavy crude to Europe [View news story]
    I think the Energy East project (pipeline to the East) has been already approved by the NEB. I also remember hearing that Irving is building a deep water port so we will be reading more news like this.

    The Keystone XL is also going to happen because it is in the best interest of both, US and Canada. My guess is 2 years to be approved. But first, US needs to lift the Ban on crude oil exports. With shale oil going outside US, Canadian Oil will be more competitive in the US.

    Once these two projects start showing the economic benefits, the west pipeline will have a chance.
    Sep 25, 2014. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: PDVSA seeks bids for Citgo in potential $10B deal [View news story]
    They high valuation time is there for a reason. As long as the US ban on crude oil exports is in place. This creates a competitive advantage for refiners in North America. After the ban is lifted, probably downstream valuations could not be as high. How long the ban could last? Who knows, if I have to guess, I'll say 2 years. Economically, the ban is a distortion in the market. Politically and strategically, that is other thing, harder to weight and to put a value on it.
    Sep 10, 2014. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama administration moves closer to seismic testing for Atlantic oil [View news story]
    Offshore oil is usually light oil. Keystone pipeline should transport heavy oil. Both complement each other. North America is better off increasing both supplies. Refineries require a blend of both. Increasing oil supply from different sources increase energy security due to increase security of supply.
    Jul 21, 2014. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power jumps following after-hours analyst initiation [View news story]
    Agree. Plug has been around for a while. I started looking to this stock in 2000. Some cyclical excitements for a moment and then big drops. There is still lot of development to be done in order to start considering these options. Also, oil prices have to be lot more expensive.
    There are other environment friendly technologies that can probe more effective in the short term such as micro-turbines / Capstone Turbines (OTCPK:CSPT). But if you see this stock, had the same issues, very nice growth in March/April this year and then a big drop.
    Jul 15, 2014. 07:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brent falls on weak U.S. demand [View news story]
    Particularly, I don't see that Tesla is driving current US oil demand.

    I think the answer is more on the current economic trend (more in line with chopchop0) and increasing international oil supply.

    http://bloom.bg/TViSAS
    Jul 10, 2014. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. clears way for some oil exports by Pioneer Natural, Enterprise Products [View news story]
    Thanks you all for the discussion. It is quite interesting.

    I agree that having barriers create inefficiencies in the market. Overall US economy should be better off exporting crude.

    But this doesn’t mean that final gasoline price will be lower. Right now the input cost (crude) is lower and exporting domestic crude will increase this cost as it will match international prices. To be sure about the final price we need to look to the supply demand balance, input cost, product sales, and operational cost. It is hard to be sure if final gasoline price will be lower or higher.
    Jun 26, 2014. 07:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. clears way for some oil exports by Pioneer Natural, Enterprise Products [View news story]
    I think isn't that simple. I recommend to take a look to Valero's "Investor Presentation", Nov 2013 (slide 14).

    http://bit.ly/1rxDcUT

    It won't be good for refiners as they are losing a competitive advantage of exclusive access to US crude. "U.S. refiners such as Valero Energy Corp (NYSE: VLO) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) currently benefit enormously from cheap WTI. Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum buy WTI as input, but price their products based on more expensive brent. The cheaper WTI becomes in relation to brent, the more profits the refiners make".

    http://bit.ly/1rxDcUX
    Jun 25, 2014. 07:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil on the rise due to stockpile decline, Iraq crisis [View news story]
    Inventories in US are falling because it is more economic for the refineries to process US oil than to import oil (Brent-WTI differential).

    US oil producers on the other side, want to export because they can get more money exporting to international markets due to the same Brent-WTI differential.
    Jun 19, 2014. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada tries turning up the heat on Obama to approve Keystone [View news story]
    Security of supply. Right now US consumes more oil than it produces. By having the pipeline US is diversifying even more the supply. The increasing production from North Dakota is mostly light oil. Refineries are better-off optimizing the crude slates depending on market prices for feed and products.
    I recommend you take a look to the article, "US oil boom drives trade deficit to four-year low":
    http://on.ft.com/1is4O8f
    Having more supply from Canada can also support the case to release controls on US crude oil exports.
    Jun 12, 2014. 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada tries turning up the heat on Obama to approve Keystone [View news story]
    This is a great deal for both US and Canada. Oil from Alberta is quite different from the one produced in North Dakota. Actually they complement very well to produce optimal blends for refineries. Canada is a more stable and secure supplier than any other country that is sending crude to US right now. Canadian standards and accountability are easier to check and enforce. This deal can increase both US and Canada energy security.
    Jun 12, 2014. 01:06 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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