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yalcocer

yalcocer
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  • Reuters: PDVSA seeks bids for Citgo in potential $10B deal [View news story]
    They high valuation time is there for a reason. As long as the US ban on crude oil exports is in place. This creates a competitive advantage for refiners in North America. After the ban is lifted, probably downstream valuations could not be as high. How long the ban could last? Who knows, if I have to guess, I'll say 2 years. Economically, the ban is a distortion in the market. Politically and strategically, that is other thing, harder to weight and to put a value on it.
    Sep 10 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama administration moves closer to seismic testing for Atlantic oil [View news story]
    Offshore oil is usually light oil. Keystone pipeline should transport heavy oil. Both complement each other. North America is better off increasing both supplies. Refineries require a blend of both. Increasing oil supply from different sources increase energy security due to increase security of supply.
    Jul 21 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power jumps following after-hours analyst initiation [View news story]
    Agree. Plug has been around for a while. I started looking to this stock in 2000. Some cyclical excitements for a moment and then big drops. There is still lot of development to be done in order to start considering these options. Also, oil prices have to be lot more expensive.
    There are other environment friendly technologies that can probe more effective in the short term such as micro-turbines / Capstone Turbines (OTCPK:CSPT). But if you see this stock, had the same issues, very nice growth in March/April this year and then a big drop.
    Jul 15 07:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brent falls on weak U.S. demand [View news story]
    Particularly, I don't see that Tesla is driving current US oil demand.

    I think the answer is more on the current economic trend (more in line with chopchop0) and increasing international oil supply.

    http://bloom.bg/TViSAS
    Jul 10 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. clears way for some oil exports by Pioneer Natural, Enterprise Products [View news story]
    Thanks you all for the discussion. It is quite interesting.

    I agree that having barriers create inefficiencies in the market. Overall US economy should be better off exporting crude.

    But this doesn’t mean that final gasoline price will be lower. Right now the input cost (crude) is lower and exporting domestic crude will increase this cost as it will match international prices. To be sure about the final price we need to look to the supply demand balance, input cost, product sales, and operational cost. It is hard to be sure if final gasoline price will be lower or higher.
    Jun 26 07:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. clears way for some oil exports by Pioneer Natural, Enterprise Products [View news story]
    I think isn't that simple. I recommend to take a look to Valero's "Investor Presentation", Nov 2013 (slide 14).

    http://bit.ly/1rxDcUT

    It won't be good for refiners as they are losing a competitive advantage of exclusive access to US crude. "U.S. refiners such as Valero Energy Corp (NYSE: VLO) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) currently benefit enormously from cheap WTI. Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum buy WTI as input, but price their products based on more expensive brent. The cheaper WTI becomes in relation to brent, the more profits the refiners make".

    http://bit.ly/1rxDcUX
    Jun 25 07:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil on the rise due to stockpile decline, Iraq crisis [View news story]
    Inventories in US are falling because it is more economic for the refineries to process US oil than to import oil (Brent-WTI differential).

    US oil producers on the other side, want to export because they can get more money exporting to international markets due to the same Brent-WTI differential.
    Jun 19 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada tries turning up the heat on Obama to approve Keystone [View news story]
    Security of supply. Right now US consumes more oil than it produces. By having the pipeline US is diversifying even more the supply. The increasing production from North Dakota is mostly light oil. Refineries are better-off optimizing the crude slates depending on market prices for feed and products.
    I recommend you take a look to the article, "US oil boom drives trade deficit to four-year low":
    http://on.ft.com/1is4O8f
    Having more supply from Canada can also support the case to release controls on US crude oil exports.
    Jun 12 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada tries turning up the heat on Obama to approve Keystone [View news story]
    This is a great deal for both US and Canada. Oil from Alberta is quite different from the one produced in North Dakota. Actually they complement very well to produce optimal blends for refineries. Canada is a more stable and secure supplier than any other country that is sending crude to US right now. Canadian standards and accountability are easier to check and enforce. This deal can increase both US and Canada energy security.
    Jun 12 01:06 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Headed Lower Again [View article]
    Hi ryanclarke,

    I agree with "... it's the products that are produced from crude that people care about.", and the feed to produce them is key here. But more important than light crude is the refinery's optimal blend that is a mix of both light and heavy. There is a good amount of light supply: WTI, Bakken, Eagle Ford, LLS that is at discount even its light quality because there is an increasing supply that can't go to international markets. Regarding your comment: "My guess is the crude oil being stockpiled is of the 'heavy kind' which the refiners don't want." This is not the case, look to the quality of the latest SPR crude sold.

    So I think Paulo Santos has good arguments to support its "speculation" argument. We saw an interesting drop in WTI price last week after the latest EIA inventory report and I'm guessing we will see more in the near future.
    Apr 21 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Refine Your Portfolio With This Energy Idea [View article]
    Hi Allen, great article. Thanks for combining all this information. The latest article from Bloomberg: “WTI Trades Near One-Week High as Cushing Inventories Fall” comments that “Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, shrank for the eighth week to the lowest in two years”. But total US crude inventory went up and Gulf coast ending stock is the highest on EIA’s historic data! I am not sure I follow the market, with all the surplus production and turnaround season, we should be seeing wider differentials for most US domestic grades. At one point the market should correct.
    Mar 27 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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