whisperonthewind

Ike vs. Refining Capacity and Oil Price

I understand that the refinery problem is causing temporarily higher prices than we should be seeing. I understand that lower oil prices will bring lower gasoline prices. What I don't understand is why those lower prices aren't lower. I read three different current articles today that predict oil prices going to (or close to) $70. They predicted gasoline prices averaging $3.50/gal. nationwide. If oil prices are falling more than 50% from the price that brought us $4 gasoline, why isn't $70 oil bringing us much closer to $2 gasoline? And why are "they" still predicting extremely high heating costs for this winter if the price of oil is supposed to be lower than it has been in a year?

Maybe I'm just missing the point, but if there really is an answer that isn't political, or one that doesn't say "big oil" is keeping its profits, I'd like to hear that answer. Those are the two general theories making the rounds, and it seems to me that neither can actually be 100% true, if they even have a glimmer of truth. But I really would like to understand, in plain English.