Yoski

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Thu Mar 20th 06:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
Commented on:
Beware the Housing-Bottom Callers

"We have the best Federal Reserve system in the world."
Wow! That means you've studied all other Federal Reserve systems in the entire world an we have the best? I am in awe dude, you're my hero! Thanks so much, I can sleep better now!
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Fri Jan 18th 06:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
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Housing Prices Expected to Bottom in 2010, 21% Off '06 Highs

Fairly optimistic assesment. Suppose inflation is 3.5%, median price in 2000 was $100K. 1.035^10=1.4. So inflation adjusted we're looking at about $140K in 2010. Given a peak of 226K we're looking at 140/226=0.62 or about a 38% decline. Since wages are not increasing any faster than inflation there's nothing to support higher home values. Especially in light of tightening lending standards even a 38% decline seems somewhat optimistic. Of course it could all drag on for several more years in which case inflation would take a bigger bite out of nominal declines. We might not see a bottom until 2012 or later.
As for the argument "the population is increasing faster than the supply of homes", certainly not here in Miami. Tens of thousands of condos and homes are sitting empty, rents are falling. Builders have clearly proven they able to outbuild any population increase anywhere in the country.
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Fri Jan 4th 05:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
Commented on:
Jingle Mail, in Practice

Everybody "games" the system to the best of their ability. Lenders, borrower's (prime & sub-prime), brokers and of course politicians who concoct new schemes on how to "bail out" borrowers & lenders alike. Once you remove a finacial penalty from having your house slip into foreclosure you end up with situations described in the article. If my house is under water what incentive do I still have to keep making payments? That's right, none! This means more foreclosures, more downward pressure on prices and even more jingle mail. At that rate even I might be able to afford a house one day :)
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