Dave M.

20 Comments

    • Which International Income ETF To Buy? [view article]
      ""The discount is so high it makes me believe the fund is holding some illiquid assets.""

      You think that 12% discount is high? In CEF land, that's not very high. And I'm amused that you think the fund is holding illiquid assets just because you think the discount is high.       Jul 17 09:50 AM
    • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
      ""Global oil exports shrunk by 2.5% in 2007, despite 57%-higher prices -- seemingly defying logic. ""

      It doesn't defy logic when you subscribe to the peak oil theory. Just about all oil exporting nations are suffering from declines in their rate of pumping out their oil. Fact is..North Sea is in decline, Mexico also, etc. etc. Therefore, less oil to ship. Price has nothing to do with it.       May 29 10:09 AM
    • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
      Eli, it's time to ban dectra from posting. That's two days in a row he has to interject politics into this forum. What will you do?
      May 28 10:51 AM
    • Coal is Just Amazing [view article]
      I thought that Fording Coal FDG was always the best pure play in metallurgical coal? At least it was just a few years ago. Have you looked at that company? May 22 10:33 AM
    • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
      And therefore counted twice, if not 3 or 4 times. Rest assured that some of the liberal media will not bother to explain this "inconvienent truth" so they can make Bush look bad. May 14 11:07 AM
    • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
      ""Nearly half of the filings were initial notices of default, suggesting many new properties entered the process.""

      You mean we've been double counting all this time?       May 14 08:52 AM
    • Penn West Energy Trust: An Underappreciated Gem [view article]
      J Mueller said.."I own both PWE and AAV. AAV cut their divi in Q4 and if you use the cut divi for Q4 you would get a payout ratio of 62%. ""

      AAV has always been a poorly run trust. I used to analyze the heck out of these a few years ago and AAV always came up short. Maybe they got new management in the last year or so, but if they recently cut their divy, then it's probably the same lousy management. How can you cut your divy with these soaring prices? That's stunning.

      ""DAVE, the ANALyst a BMO is a moron and should be fired. PWE will have around $750 million of free cash flow after paying the DIVI and Capital Budget. That is assuming OIL and NG stay at their present levels.""

      Big assumption there, huh? There's that word "ass-u-me" again. You like pie-in-the-sky assumptions and I like reasonable ones based on actual previous history. Besides, management would NEVER be guilty of putting out rosy assumptions, would they? LOL.       May 12 08:35 AM
    • Penn West Energy Trust: An Underappreciated Gem [view article]
      Why are you asking me what stocks I like and what my assumptions for O &G prices are? You're the supposed expert and should be prepared to defend your position against all questioners.

      As for your assumption that Nat Gas will stay at these high prices, you are ignoring history. I can remember just back in 2005-2006 when everyone thought that NG prices would stay above $10. Ha! They promptly fell to $4. You think that the BMO analyst is unrealistically low at $8 NG? I think he is unrealistically high, and I have a lot of precedent to back me up. Nat Gas prices are notoriously volatile, and banking on $8-9 Nat Gas is foolish.       May 12 08:26 AM
    • Penn West Energy Trust: An Underappreciated Gem [view article]
      BTW, the analyst at BMO Capital has (as of last week) PWE having a all-in payout ratio (cash distributions and capex) for 2008 of 101% and in 2009 it is 96% of cash flow, leaving virtually no room for paying down any debt in the next two years.

      His CFPU for 2008 is $6.57 and $6.83 for 2009. His assumptions are oil at $100 both years and NG at $8.10 and $7.75 for the two years.       May 11 11:52 AM
    • Penn West Energy Trust: An Underappreciated Gem [view article]
      Jack said.."One of the trusts recently converted (early) and its stock price is up 30% since the conversion as a function of O & G pricing."

      Which one was that?       May 11 11:17 AM
    • Penn West Energy Trust: An Underappreciated Gem [view article]
      The proper way to analyze O&G Canroys is to look at RPU and PPU. Reserves per Unit and Production per unit. If they are growing on a YOY (year over year) basis, then you have a good candidate for purchase. If not, it is a big red flag. How's PWE doing in this important category? May 11 11:14 AM
    • Penn West Energy Trust: An Underappreciated Gem [view article]
      Steve Ward said..."Jack, Canadian Safe Harbour Laws limit how much capital the Canroys can raise to expand before the 2011 deadline and every Canroy has a different limit.""

      This factor brings up another huge risk for PWE shareholders. At any time, PWE can announce that they are converting back into a corporation and abandon the trust formation. The dividend will be slashed severely and the income investors will bail out quickly. Other Canroy trusts have already converted because it frees them from the capital constraints put on trusts until 2011.

      May 10 01:16 PM
    • Penn West Energy Trust: An Underappreciated Gem [view article]
      I didn't say anything about tax free. I said that the 13% yield is illusory for most people. With IRA accounts, that 15% haircut is gone forever and can NOT be claimed as a foreign tax credit. Ever. With taxable accounts, please re-read my above post. May 10 08:05 AM
    • Penn West Energy Trust: An Underappreciated Gem [view article]
      Jack said.."PWE has to go up is 17% because you are getting a 13% dividend".

      No, you have to take that 15% tax haircut off of the 13%, which makes it 11%. In a lot of cases, both IRA and taxable, you can not claim all of the 15% haircut as a foreign tax credit.

      That's because, in taxable accounts, the IRS has income limit rules (domestic vs. foreign income) that severely hamper your usage of these foreign tax credits. Even though you can carry forward these tax credits for 10 years, if you keep holding PWE, you can never use them in the ensuing years until you sell PWE for an extended period of time. Bottom line is that the IRS makes life very hard for you to use these foreign tax credits.       May 09 09:58 PM
    • Penn West Energy Trust: An Underappreciated Gem [view article]
      PWE is still below it's pre-"Halloween massacre" price. Not a good sign. Better Canroys are above their respective massacre price (Crescent Point, Baytex, Freehold, et al).

      In addition, another big risk is much stricter environmental policy on drilling and oil sands development. Socialists are in bed with the environmentalists, dontcha know.       May 09 05:06 PM
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