Greg Feirman1

Commodities: The Next Bubble?

"Did not we forget that we had a commodity bubble together with property bubble?" - MNSL

In my opinion, that was just a preview of the real deal to come once we work through the current global mess.

The Recession Is Already Priced Into Stocks

I appreciate all the comments on this post.

The bears make a good point when they say that we're already in a stock market crash. I should have used the word "collapse" to make my point.

I also think the comments here provide a valuable read on sentiment. I agree with basehitz:

"The overwhelming bearish comments here confirms AAII sentiment data, which is far more bearish now than at any time. That is bullish. However, only the strongest financially deserve investment. The weak ones may not survive."

Playing for a Bounce?

And I dig the lyrics WilliamBanzai7!

Playing for a Bounce?

I said the government is "sort of" making it illegal for stocks to go down. I was being somewhat literary rather than literal here.

The whole idea is that they're going after short sellers right now because they want to stop the market from going down. Anybody disagree that that's why they made this announcement when they did? The point was to intimidate and help the market out.

All the details about naked short selling don't concern me. It makes sense that you should have to line up the shares first. But the SEC's intention was to stop stocks from going down and use the force of their government power to that end. Hence they are "sort of" making it illegal for stocks go down.

When the people with the guns (i.e. power) start to flex their muscles to some end, in this case stopping stocks from going down, it's worth paying attention to and it will probably be, ceteris paribus, effective to some extent.

Calling Today A Short-Term Bottom for Financials

Yeeeeaaahhhhh Bbbboooooyyyyyy!!!!!

GFI Group Is Not Your Typical Brokerage

A key worry with GFIG also appears to be any exposure they might have on their balance sheet to paying out on any credit default swaps should someone go under. They keep saying they have no exposure on their balance sheet and act only as a broker. But these fears have weighed on their share price, unfairly in my opinion.

What makes you so sure GFIG would be a primary beneficiary of any centralized clearing house? Wouldn't the bigger brokers try to muscle in and take over this lucrative business?

Is Pfizer's 7% Dividend Safe?

We owned just those Canadian Oil Sands Trusts you mentioned (CNQ, PWE) for quite a while. But with an economic slowdown/recession looming and oil in what I think is a bubble, I actually see a lot of risk in those shares. I sold them way too early (early '07) but I wouldn't buy them here. CNQ especially has had a wicked run the last few months. I think it has a lot of air to come out if oil cracks.

Freeport-McMoRan Is Overvalued

Right, so my entire call is predicated on a fall in copper prices. And my call for a fall in copper prices is purely a macro call: copper prices are a good barometer for worldwide economic growth. See, for example, this wonderful article by Dan Gross:

www.slate.com/id/21300...#

As the growth slows down worldwide, I expect the edge to come off the price of copper which, it should be noted, is trading at multi year highs.

If I'm right, Freeport will selloff massively as it is essentially a huge call option on copper prices.

Borders Explores Strategic Options; Receives Special Funding

"Were also got torched" - LOL. Editing!!!

My original said "and are getting torched today as well" (www.topgunfp.com/borde.../).

Uhhh..... not using torched literally!!!!

Say Goodnight as Google Disappoints

Google was getting hit way before the MSFT/YHOO deal. Plus, nobody seems to think that combination is much of a threat to Google - so it doesn't explain selling in Google.

I agree, Adam, that the fundamentals are good. But what this earnings miss and price action suggest is that the peak for this cycle is in. So while Google is still solid fundamentally, it likely will go lower before going higher.

Rumpole: Yes, I think GOOG and GS are the most important stocks in the market these days.

Sears' Lampert: How Much Trouble Is “The Next Warren Buffett” In?

LOL SImon.

Trade a Bounce in Intel

Shameless. It did bounce like I thought it would. Truth is I didn't make any money on this trade though - bought at $20.00 on Wed 1/16 and sold it $19.80 on Mon 1/28. But there were opportunities to make money here. I just wasn't ready to trade first thing Friday 1/25 when it surged through $21 at the open. It's still over $21 at the close today (Thu 1/31). But, like I said, it was just a trade for me and I don't want to own Intel right here so I got out.

An Attractive Entry for an Amazon Short

Amazon's other businesses make up such a small part of its revenue (4.3% of revenue for the first 9 months of 2007) and profit as to be negligible when analyzing their business.

Shorting is all about timing. Amazon's valuation shows that it is trading as a speculative stock and now is not the time for speculation. Note how Amazon got crushed today, down 7% in a down 2-3% market. Speculative stocks always get hit harder.

It's going down more.